Justin Jefferson

24-Year-Old Wide ReceiverWR

Minnesota Vikings

2023 Receiving Stats

REC

YDS

1074

AVG

15.8

TAR

100

2024 Projections

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YDS

AVG

TAR

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Jefferson reached 1,400 yards as a rookie, 1,600 as a sophomore, 1,800 in Year 3 and then looked ready to push for 2,000 early last season. He was already up to 571 in Week 5 when a hamstring knocked him out for the fourth quarter and then the next seven games. Jefferson's long-awaited return was spoiled by a chest injury after 13 snaps, but he came back the next week and exploded for 476 yards over the final four games to comfortably clear 1,000 yards for the season (1,074). If not for the two partial games, he almost certainly would've led the league in receiving yards per game for a second straight year, though Miami's Tyreek Hill was the undisputed king for both 2022 and 2023 in terms or per-route production. Jefferson is by no means lacking in that regard -- he's been Top 10 in yards per route in all four of his seasons -- but it helps that he almost never comes off the field when healthy and spent the past two years in Kevin O'Connell offenses that threw the ball 676 (3rd) and 631 (4th) times. O'Connell is still around, but the Minnesota offense is much harder to decipher after TE T.J. Hockenson suffered last-year ACL tear and QB Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta. While few teams, if any, match the WR pairing of Jefferson and 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison, there's obvious risk of a down year with rookie J.J. McCarthy and/or Sam Darnold taking the QB snaps. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

ADP

Overall

Wide Receiver

Height 6'1"

Weight 195

DOB 6/16/1999

College LSU

Drafted 1st Rd 2020 #22 Overall

Stellar performance to end season

WRMinnesota Vikings

January 7, 2024

Jefferson brought in 12 of 14 targets for 192 yards and a touchdown and rushed once for minus-12 yards in the Vikings' 30-20 loss the Lions on Sunday.

ANALYSIS
The Vikings were eliminated from postseason contention with the loss, but Jefferson certainly finished off the season in grand fashion. The ultra-talented wideout terrorized the Lions secondary throughout the afternoon, comfortably leading Minnesota in receptions, receiving yards and targets while also recording a nifty 38-yard touchdown grab. Jefferson's totals were also season highs across the board, and with the prolific afternoon, he finishes the season with 1,074 receiving yards in only 10 games despite having played with four different quarterbacks.

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NFL Stats

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Fantasy/Red Zone Stats

See red zone opportunities inside the 20, 10 and 5-yard lines along with the percentage of time they converted the opportunity into a touchdown.

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Advanced NFL Stats

How do Justin Jefferson's 2023 advanced stats compare to other wide receivers?

This section compares his advanced stats with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average. The longer the bar, the better it is for the player.

Air Yards Per Game

129.3

Air Yards Per Snap

2.46

% Team Air Yards

27.4%

% Team Targets

16.6%

Avg Depth of Target

12.8 Yds

Catch Rate

68.0%

Drop Rate

4.0%

Avg Yds After Catch

4.0

% Targeted On Route

25.9%

Avg Yds Per Route Run

2.78

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2023 NFL Game Log

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2022 NFL Game Log

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2021 NFL Game Log

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2020 NFL Game Log

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Snap Distribution / Depth Chart

Snap Counts

Snap %

Vikings 2023 WR Snap Distribution See more data like this | See last season's snap counts

J.Jordan Addison

K.K.J. Osborn

J.Justin Jefferson

B.Brandon Powell

J.Jalen Nailor

T.Trishton Jackson

N.N'Keal Harry

L.Lucky Jackson

#% of Team Snaps

87881%

78272%

52549%

39036%

888%

797%

202%

30%

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#1 WR

Vikings

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Receiving Alignment Breakdown

See where Justin Jefferson lined up on the field and how he performed at each spot.

Detailed

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Side

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2023 Justin Jefferson Split Stats

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Measurables Review View College Player Page

How do Justin Jefferson's measurables compare to other wide receivers?

This section compares his draft workout metrics with players at the same position. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that metric and it would be considered average.

Height

6' 1"

Weight

195 lbs

40-Yard Dash

4.43 sec

Vertical Jump

37.5 in

Broad Jump

126 in

Hand Length

9.13 in

Arm Length

33.00 in

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Pause in negotiations

WRMinnesota Vikings

April 30, 2024

Jefferson and the Vikings took a brief pause in contract negotiations as the team prepared for the NFL draft, Kevin Seifert of ESPN reports.

ANALYSIS
The sides have been working on an extension for over a year, and it will almost certainly make Jefferson the highest-paid wide receiver in the league. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah described the sides as having productive negotiations that will begin again soon. He also noted that he wanted the spotlight to be on Jefferson when the deal gets done, meaning the team may opt to wait a bit to announce any completed deal until buzz surrounding the draft and new quarterback J.J. McCarthy subsides.

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

Jefferson, Randy Moss and Odell Beckham are the only players to reach 4,000 receiving yards in their first three NFL seasons, and Jefferson is more than 650 yards clear of the other two after leading the NFL with 1,809 last year. The 22nd overall pick from the 2020 draft has neatly progressed from 1,400 to 1,600 to 1,800 yards each year while catching at least 64.7 percent of his targets for at least 9.7 YPT each season. Jefferson is only slightly above league average for WRs in terms of size (6-1, 195) and timed speed (4.43 40), but he's otherwise elite when it comes to route-running, ball skills and general feel for the game. He rapidly surpassed veteran Vikings wideout Adam Thielen, who was released this offseason and signed with Carolina. Thielen's departure might mean even more defensive attention on Jefferson, but it could also mean even more targets in a passing game that otherwise features first-round WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson and WR KJ Osborn. Boasting the highest non-injury floor of anyone in the player pool, Jefferson quickly emerged as the most popular No. 1 overall pick in early 2023 drafts. While one might argue there are a few running backs with more upside, we also have to consider that a 2,000-yard season is within Jefferson's range of possibilities.

On a per-target basis, Jefferson's second NFL season (9.7 YPT) wasn't quite as dominant as his first (11.2). But that's nitpicking; the bigger picture shows he added 42 targets from the previous year and was still one of the most efficient wideouts in the league. Only 11 produced more yards per target, and that includes four who saw 70 or fewer passes. Jefferson finished fourth among WRs in targets and catches, second in receiving yards and tied for sixth in touchdowns. The 23-year-old often makes it look easy, seemingly playing both bigger and faster than his on-paper metrics suggest (6-1, 195, 4.43 40, 37.5-inch vertical). From a fantasy standpoint, there's just as much to like, with Jefferson playing in an above-average offense that has enough weapons to keep defenses honest but nobody to challenge him as the go-to guy. Jefferson surpassed Adam Thielen for that honor mid-2020, and while the 31-year-old Thielen scored 10 touchdowns last year, he saw 2.5 fewer targets per game than his young running mate (9.8 to 7.3). If anything, the split could go even more in Jefferson's direction this year, though there is another variable with new head coach Kevin O'Connell arriving from the Rams. Other than that, stability is the story, with QB Kirk Cousins and RB Dalvin Cook joining Jefferson, Thielen and TE Irv Smith to form one of the league's more well-rounded groups of skill-position players.

With Stefon Diggs sent off to Buffalo, the Vikings needed to find a reliable complement to Adam Thielen last season. It didn’t take long. Despite a limited offseason and training camp, and playing only 65 snaps combined in Weeks 1-2, Jefferson set the league on fire as a rookie, leading the NFL in YPT (11.2) by a mile and finishing fourth in receiving yards (1,400). At 6-1, 202, and with good speed (4.45), Jefferson is athletic, smooth and explosive. Despite getting only 125 targets (18th), Jefferson tied for the league lead in catches of 20-plus yards with 23. The only hole in his game was red-zone usage — he saw only 12 inside-the-20 targets, eight inside the 10 and two inside the five, while his less efficient teammate Thielen had 20, 13 and eight, respectively. It’s no wonder then that Thielen had 14 touchdowns on 108 targets to Jefferson’s seven on 125. Heading into 2021, Jefferson is firmly established as Kirk Cousins’ big-play receiver and likely top dog. Thielen is still solid and should reprise a prominent role, but the depth chart thins considerably after those two, so expect an increase in targets for Jefferson in Year 2.

The Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to the Bills for the 22nd pick and used it to select Jefferson, his replacement. Jefferson was a monster at LSU last year with 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns on 111 catches. At 6-1, 202, Jefferson has above average size and good speed (4.43), and his vertical (37.5 inches) and broad jumps (126 inches) were both in the top quartile among his peers. While Jefferson might be ideally suited for the slot - where he dominated at LSU - he'll likely have to play out wide more in Minnesota's two-TE offense. Even in three-wide formations, it could be Adam Thielen rather than Jefferson getting the majority of slot snaps. Either way, the rookie should begin the year as the Vikings' No. 2 target behind Thielen, providing some much-needed downfield playmaking for Kirk Cousins.

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