This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
More and more injuries. The war of attrition on running backs rolled on in Week 7 with C.J. Spiller (collarbone) the biggest victim, as his visit to short-term IR won't allow him back in action before Week 16. Old vets Fred Jackson (groin) and Pierre Thomas (shoulder) weren't as unfortunate, but with them likely shelved a few weeks the door is open for other fantasy performers to step up. For my taste, Anthony Dixon is the back to target in Buffalo while Mark Ingram should assume a more featured role again in New Orleans, particularly with Khiry Robinson dealing with a forearm strain.
The incessant injuries that have plagued the running back landscape this season should have all owners thinking ahead this time of year, especially if you've been proudly trotting a stud out every week. Early in the year I'm not a big believer in handcuffs, but with the rate at which backfields are changing hands this season it's simply carelessness to not stash the backup to an elite running back if he's available. At the rate guys like DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and Le'Veon Bell touch the football it could just be a matter of time before someone is starting one of their backups in a critical part of the fantasy season.
Minor injuries won't cost those superstars their jobs, but it's also critical to observe those backfields where the starter has a tenuous hold over the position. A minor ailment slowing down an average to below average starter could be all it takes to have a changing of the guard -- hence the critical importance of stashing a few targeted guys. We just witnessed explosive backs like Ronnie Hillman, Tre Mason and Denard Robinson potentially steal jobs for the rest of the year because the supposed workhorses in front of them underperformed and got dinged up. It's always difficult to tell how a clear backup might fare with a bigger workload, but paying attention to the limited touches, pedigree and situation can provide enough intel to make those close calls when choosing one guy to stash at the back of the bench. So here are my five backs to grab if available, in order, and a quick synopsis on why:
1. Joseph Randle, DAL -DeMarco Murray has never exceeded 270 touches in a season or played 16 games. He already has 209 in seven contests. Behind the best line in football Randle is averaging 6.7 YPC.
2. Stepfan Taylor, AZ -Andre Ellington is averaging almost 22 touches per game and is already dealing with rib and foot soreness. Taylor was used at the goal line last week, and his fresh legs produced more rushing yards than any other Stanford running back in school history.
3. Roy Helu, WAS - Alfred Morris has 767 career touches in 40 games (counting playoffs). The explosive Helu is averaging 8.5 yards per touch and churned out more than 1,000 total yards as a rookie in 2011.
4. Jonas Gray, NE -Shane Vereen has never topped 91 touches in a season, never played 16 games and won't be mistaken for a goal-line back. The 225-pound Gray has just a handful of nice preseason moments on his resume, but he's quick, powerful and could have been a third-round draft pick out of Notre Dame in 2012 had it not been for a torn ACL.
5. Devonta Freeman, ATL - No way Steven Jackson survives 16 games unscathed. Drafted in the fourth round to eventually be the starter, Freeman has the quickness and burst that led to the first 1,000-yard rushing season at Florida State since Warrick Dunn.
Oh, and hey, did you guys know Percy Harvin is now in an even less explosive pass attack (Jets are dead last in YPA, FYI)? There you go, my one observation on any other position this week. Kudos, by the way, to Doug Baldwin for stepping up. He actually looks like a Seahawks receiver you can play.
Same as always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays. The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADES
Quarterback
Russell Wilson, SEA at CAR
Seattle should be able to run at will versus Carolina's Swiss cheese defense (giving up a league-high 5.3 YPC), but how does one not consider Wilson an elite option after he posted the first 300/100 game in league history?
Matthew Stafford, DET at ATL (in London)
With or without the return of Calvin Johnson this week, the cannon-armed Stafford is set up nicely for a big game. Atlanta's 29th-ranked pass defense has allowed the most yards after the catch to WR, and Stafford's current No. 1, Golden Tate, leads all wideouts in this category.
Jay Cutler, CHI at NE
New England is allowing the fewest passing yards in the league (208.0 per game), and Cutler is coming off his worst showing of the season, one that riled up star wideout Brandon Marshall. But if Kyle Orton can throw for 299 yards and two scores on the Pats, Cutler sure can. Expect a statement game from the Chicago O.
Carson Palmer, AZ vs. PHI
The Eagles pass rush has proven a nightmare in recent weeks for opposing quarterbacks, but Palmer has completed a league-high 75 percent of his passes against five rushers. With explosive talents like Andre Ellington, Michael Floyd and John Brown as his outlets, not to mention the sure hands of Larry Fitzgerald, Palmer should continue to thrive.
Kyle Orton, BUF at NYJ
Forget the two-QB leagues I've upgraded Orton for in recent weeks. He's earned consideration for standard 10- and 12-team leagues after averaging 297.3 yards and notching five scores in three games, including against top pass defenses in New England and Detroit. The Jets, well they're far from such a defense.
Running Back
Joique Bell, DET at ATL (in London)
Bell has scored in consecutive games (his first two since Week 1) while getting exactly 20 touches both times. Reggie Bush is still dealing with an ankle injury and likely will leave Bell to feast on a defense that's allowed a whopping 13 rushing TD this year.
Tre Mason, STL at KC
Mason looks dramatically more explosive than Benny Cunningham and Zac Stacy. On his 23 carries he has BOTH of the Rams' runs this season of 20-plus, and now he's primed to take advantage of a KC defense allowing 4.7 YPC. Jeff Fisher has found his "hot hand."
Jerick McKinnon, MIN at TB
Tampa has allowed eight running backs to go for at least 100-plus total yards or a touchdown in their last five games. McKinnon has 38 touches his last two contests and just posted a triple-digit outing versus a Bills defense that had formerly been tops against the run.
Mark Ingram, NO vs. GB
Thomas is out. Khiry Robinson is dealing with an arm injury. The Packers are 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (147.9), and Drew Brees should be able to keep things close at home. Welcome back, Mr. Ingram.
Darren McFadden, OAK at CLE
McFadden has tallied at least 72 total yards or a score in three straight, just received 18 touches to Maurice Jones-Drew's three and now gets to face the league's worst run defense. The Browns give up 155.5 yards per game at 5.0 YPC and were sliced up by Denard Robinson last week.
Wide Receiver
Doug Baldwin, SEA at CAR
The Panthers have allowed more points to opposing wide receivers this season than anyone, including 12 touchdowns. With the Seahawks behind lately, they've been forced to throw it more, and with Percy Harvin run out of town, Baldwin should continue to thrive.
Chris Hogan, BUF at NYJ
Playing Hogan would only really make sense if you owned nearly every receiver for the 49ers and Giants, but fact is, there are worse options on many rosters. Hogan is becoming fast friends with Kyle Orton -- 10 catches on 12 targets for 135 yards and a score in two weeks -- and gets the ultra generous Jets secondary next.
Mike Evans, TB vs. MIN
In his last two outings the 6-foot-5 rookie has at least 55 yards and a score in each. With his presence in the red zone and the attention Vincent Jackson demands, a big second half of the season could be in store for this smooth wideout.
Cordarrelle Patterson/Greg Jennings, MIN at TB
If you're going to roll the dice on Patterson again, this is the week. Despite the pathetic nine-yard showing last Sunday, he did find the end zone. The Bucs are giving up the most passing yards per game (294.5) and let Baltimore wide receivers snag five touchdowns in their last contest. This upgrade goes double for Jennings.
Tight End
Owen Daniels, BAL at CIN
The Bengals allow 101 yards per game to tight ends, easily the most in the league. Daniels leads the team in targets the last three games. When those facts collide this week it should make an adorable fantasy baby.
Jordan Reed, WAS at DAL
Only the Bengals have given up more fantasy points to tight ends, as Dallas has allowed an average of 77 yards and a score per game to the position. In two games since returning from a hamstring injury, Reed is averaging 73 yards.
DOWNGRADES
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, ATL vs. DET (in London)
"Matty Ice" has been under a lot of heat lately. Behind a porous offensive line and with little support from a weak ground game, Ryan has topped 300 yards just once since Week 1 and has thrown only one score in three straight. Detroit has allowed just seven passing scores on the year, so this doesn't look like the week he gets on track.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. IND
In the midst of one of the hottest stretches of his career, Joe Flacco was completely shut down by the Colts three weeks back. Indy's offense is controlling the ball, it's pressuring the QB (third in sacks) and blanketing receivers. With a ragtag group of pass catchers behind Antonio Brown, Roethlisberger is in trouble.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy, PHI at AZ
The real McCoy finally showed up before Philly's bye week, gashing the Giants for 149 yards on the ground. He's impossible to bench, but the Cardinals top-ranked run defense allow less than half that per game and hasn't let a single back hit even 65 yards this year.
Chris Ivory, NYJ vs. BUF
The Jets got back to their ground-and-pound ways last week to the joy of Ivory owners, but Buffalo gives up just 3.2 YPC and still hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown.
Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. BAL
Although Bernard tallied 110 total yards versus Baltimore in Week 1, more of that came through the air while he managed a meager 3.4 YPC on the ground. No team has allowed fewer receiving yards to running backs since, however, than the Ravens.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones, ATL vs. DET (in London)
Jones hasn't scored since Week 3 and his best game since is a 105-yard effort that required 16 targets to get there. Detroit has given up just three TD to wideouts this season, including shutting out Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, who've combined for 14 in their other six games.
Steve Smith, BAL at CIN
Smith jumpstarted his surprise season with a 118-yard showing versus Cinci in Week 1. Of course, that big day required an 80-yard scoring bomb on a blown coverage. The Bengals fixed their coverage since, however, as they've allowed just one other receiver to hit 100 yards and only two others to score.
Kelvin Benjamin, CAR vs. SEA
Only three receivers -- Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders and DeSean Jackson -- have reached double figures in fantasy points versus Seattle. Small and speedy is not exactly the 6-foot-5 Benjamin's game.
Tight End
Delanie Walker, TEN vs. HOU
Walker is still second among tight ends in yards but he hasn't scored since Week 4, has suffered in recent weeks from shaky QB play, and will now have to break in his third signal caller, rookie Zach Mettenberger. To top it off, Houston allows less than 50 yards a game to the position.
Travis Kelce, KC vs. STL
Kelce has tallied only 48 yards in the Chiefs' last two games and with a run-heavy offense against a defense giving up less than 50 yards per game to tight ends, returning to his early season form seems unlikely this week.
