This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
There are only five games on Thursday's slate, yet four of the league's top six per-possession defenses over the last 10 games will be in action, while only one of the worst six such defenses play. Since most of the defenses in action are either good or average, there is a decent chance that the scores will be a bit lower than a typical five-game slate. It is also a fairly balanced slate – other than the Bucks, no team is dramatically more attractive than any other team.
TARGET:
MIL at MIN: Specifically, I'm interested in the Milwaukee side of this matchup. The Timberwolves are the worst per-possession defense in the league over the past 10 games, a below average rebounding team, and they are second in the league in turnovers per game.
AVOID:
HOU at SA: Over the last 10 games, the Spurs have the third-best per-possession defense while the Rockets have the 12th. Over that period, the Spurs have the slowest pace in the league, and the Rockets are barely slower than league-average.
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC at DEN ($11,300): During last season's remarkable MVP race, it seemed as though any time James Harden did something amazing, Westbrook would come out the next game and try to top it. He'll have a hard time topping Harden's 60-point triple-double (for 100 DKFP!), but knowing what we do about Westbrook, he seems primed for a good game. However, there's more than anecdotal reasons to roster Westbrook. He also has at least 64 DKFP in three of his last four games, and four of his last six. The Nuggets have been a favorable matchup for guards. Westbrook is coming off a 13-point performance – the last time he scored less than 19 points, he bounced back the following game with 27 points, 17 rebounds, and 15 assists, for the only 15-15-15 triple-double by any player this season.
Ish Smith, DET vs. MEM ($5,500): One of my favorite strategies is using a player that DraftKings identifies as having a difficult matchup, but for whom the matchup is actually favorable. DraftKings says that the Grizzlies are the third toughest opponent for a point guard, but all of that data is from games when Tyreke Evans (rest) or Mike Conley (heel) were dominating the point guard minutes. Conley is out for the season, and, as of yesterday, Evans is out while the Grizzlies try to trade him before next Thursday's trade deadline. The Grizzlies are going deep into their bench now, making this a much more favorable matchup than that big scary red "3rd" next to Smith's name implies. Smith has at least 19 DKFP in each of his last 10 games, and at least 31 in two of his last three.
Reggie Bullock, DET at MEM ($5,000): As a result of the Blake Griffin trade the Pistons have become shallower on the wing. Bullock was already seeing an increasing role before the trade, playing at least 30 minutes in eight of his 13 January appearances, but the departures of Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris help solidify Bullock's role. Harris was attempting 5.8 threes per game, and some of that load is likely to shift to Bullock. Bullock has attempted more threes per game each month, and is up to 7.7 over the last three games. He's scored at least 29 DKFP in each of those.
FORWARDS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at MIN ($10,400): As addressed at the top, the Timberwolves defense is struggling lately, and that's putting it mildly. A poor defense is particularly important for Antetokounmpo, who has averaged 33.0 points per game since missing a pair of games with a knee injury a little more than a week ago. He's only scored less than 20 points twice all season. With his large workload – 34.7 minutes per game since that injury – combined with his ability to contribute in all categories, he should be able to take advantage of a vulnerable Timberwolves' defense.
Otto Porter, WAS vs. TOR ($6,600): We're betting against the recent trend here, but I think it's a savvy play. Other managers are likely to flock to Markieff Morris ($6,200) who has kicked off the no-John-Wall era with 20.5 points and 36.4 DKFP per game in the first two games. However, despite Morris' mini-streak, he's only averaging 11.0 points per game when Wall is out, so he's likely to regress quickly. Meanwhile, Porter is the more natural scorer and has a larger role than Morris, and Porter is averaging 21.5 points and 37.4 DKFP with Wall out. He's an excellent "pivot" play.
Dillon Brooks, MEM at DET ($4,400): With Evans and Conley out, Brooks will be asked to shoulder a larger offensive role. On Wednesday, he led the Grizzlies in minutes and field goal attempts and was third in assists and rebounds. He has at least 20 DKFP in seven of his last nine games.
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. OKC ($8,100): It's not an easy night for centers, so Jokic is my "try not to do any damage" pick. He matches up against a good defensive center, but Jokic's quickness and passing vision creates unusual problems Steven Adams is likely to struggle to solve. Before his last game, Jokic had double-doubled in five straight, hitting at least 42 DKFP in each of those.
Steven Adams, OKC at DEN ($6,300): Jokic may be highly skilled on offense, but he's an average to below-average defender. Adams has double-digit rebounds against the Nuggets in two of the last three times that both him and Jokic have played. His floor is very high for his salary – he's scored at least 29 DKFP in each of his past nine games. He double-doubled in seven of those.
