This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Seven of the 10 teams in action Thursday are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, and an eighth, the Knicks, is starting a Thursday-Friday back-to-back of their own. The Cavaliers and the 76ers are the only two teams looking at a "normal" rest schedule – keep that in mind when considering starting veterans or players dealing with injuries on any other team Thursday.
TARGET
TOR at PHI: This game includes one of the two teams on "normal" rest, so at least one of them is likely to keep close-to-normal rotations. And the Raptors blew out the Hornets Wednesday, allowing them to rest their starters late – only rookie OG Anunoby played more than 30 minutes. Both teams are in the top-10 in pace.
AVOID
SA at UTA: Once Las Vegas announces the line for this game, it is likely to have the lowest projected total on the slate. Both teams are in the bottom third of the league for pace, and the Spurs are in the top-five for points allowed per-possession.
GUARDS
Tyreke Evans, MEM at PHO ($7,600): The Suns are bad. They are bad at a lot of things, but they are particularly bad at defense, and their recent changes to the rotation have the potential to make them worse. Since Devin Booker (groin) got hurt two weeks ago, they have given a much larger role to Troy Daniels, a sharpshooting NBA journeyman who is typically considered a poor defender. In the last week, they signed Isaiah Canaan – also a sharpshooting NBA journeyman typically considered a poor defender – and he has averaged 25.3 minutes per game as a Sun. Mike James and Tyler Ulis are both undersized and have also struggled on defense. This is a fantastic matchup for the 6-foot-6 Evans, who also happens to be averaging 22.8 points and 37.5 DKFP in 33.8 minutes over his past five games.
Rodney Hood, UTA vs. SA ($5,900): The Jazz got demolished by the Thunder Wednesday night, leading to both teams playing their backups for most of the fourth quarter. Despite the shortened game, Hood led the team with 28 minutes, and he was one of few marginally effective players, leading the team with 17 points. Hood started in place of Donovan Mitchell (toe), who sat out. While there is no official word yet on Mitchell's availability for Thursday, it seems likely that he'll sit out again. When Mitchell was injured in Monday's game, he played barely half his usual complement of minutes, with Hood taking over his duties late. With the extra time and responsibilities, Hood racked up 26 points and 42.25 DKFP Monday.
Andrew Harrison, MEM at PHO ($4,000): I'm all for doubling down on attacking the Suns' defense, especially their backcourt. Harrison has taken over an increased portion of the Grizzlies' ball-handling duties over the past two weeks, leading the team in assists with 4.5 per game over the past eight contests. His 25.7 minutes per game over that stretch trails only Evans among the Grizzlies' non-big men.
FORWARDS
LeBron James, CLE vs. CHI ($11,900): There aren't many expensive players worth their cost, so I'm ok with going all the way up to James' exorbitant price – especially on a small Thursday slate. Winning scores are typically lower on small slates, which makes it easier to afford the really high salaried players. No one can effectively matchup against James (OK, maybe Kawhi Leonard, but that's really not relevant to Thursday), but the Bulls are even less equipped to handle James than most other teams. The Bulls don't have a defense-first small forward on their roster, and none of their power forwards are fast or athletic enough to even pretend to keep up with James. There is a legitimate chance that sophomore point guard Kris Dunn might be their best option for guarding James. Another way of saying that is "LeBron James can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants Thursday." The biggest threat to his eight-game streak of at least 60 DKFP per game is the possibility that he rests late in a blowout.
Enes Kanter, NY vs. BOS ($6,200): Kanter's a bit expensive, considering his recent production, but he warrants some attention Thursday for two reasons, only one of which is strictly basketball related. The last time the Knicks played the Celtics, Kanter had a field day, scoring 16 points and grabbing 19 rebounds on his way to 41.8 DKFP. The non-basketball reason is that, earlier this week, Kanter's home country – Turkey – announced that they wanted to arrest Kanter and jail him for up to four years. Kanter has been an outspoken critic of the Turkish government, in particular its leader, Recep Erdogan. Kanter responded to Turkey's announcement with calm, saying "if we [the Knicks] make the playoffs, then that will drive [Erdogan] crazy, so that's what I'm focused on right now, just make the playoffs and drive this dude crazy." If ever there was a "revenge game" type of narrative to buy into, it's this one.
Alex Len, PHO vs. MEM ($5,700): The Suns have been doing some silly things with their rotations lately, including several healthy DNP-CDs for their centers. Therefore, anyone interested in starting Len has to make sure to check his availability shortly before the lineups lock. But Len has sat less frequently than Greg Monroe and Tyson Chandler, and if he's active, he's a good bargain. Len has at least 13 rebounds in three straight games, despite playing only 18 minutes in one of them. The Grizzlies are a below average rebounding team, with a rebound percentage of only 48 percent this season.
CENTER
Al Horford, BOS at NY ($7,200): Believing in a good game from Kanter and a good game from Horford is not at all contradictory – in fact, it may even be complimentary. Kanter is a rebounder and a scorer, but a notoriously weak defender. While Horford gets some of his value from rebounding, most of his fantasy points come from his scoring and his passing. If Kanter is having a good game on offense, that will help keep his minutes elevated – and the more time Kanter is on the court, the more open shots and clear passing lanes Horford will have. Matchup aside, Horford is a great value Thursday, as he has scored more than 40 DKFP in two of his last three games, as well as in seven of his last 10.
Serge Ibaka, TOR at PHI ($5,900): The 76ers are expected to be without Joel Embiid (back) Thursday, which makes them an attractive opponent for Ibaka. Without Embiid, none of the 76ers big men are agile enough to cover Ibaka both along the perimeter and in the paint. Ibaka is not the shot-blocker he once was, but it is still an important part of his game, and the 76ers are the most-blocked team in the NBA. Ibaka has scored more than 17 points and 30 DKFP in each of his past six games.
Richaun Holmes, PHI vs. TOR ($4,600): Embiid has missed five games in the past three weeks – in those games, Holmes is averaging 22.6 minutes per game, up from his season-long averaged of 16.7. He's averaging 22.6 DKFP in those five games, a profitable total for this salary. With Embiid likely out again Thursday, Holmes is the most likely beneficiary once again.
