This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We're reaching the point in the season where we have enough data to make some educated conclusions about players and teams. The sample size is still small, and varying quality of opponents will have a big impact – the Bucks have played three playoff teams and the Hornets, while the Hawks have only played lottery teams – but we've at least got something to work with.
It's a busy night, for a Thursday, but that still means only five games on the NBA slate. Scores are likely to be lower, but not by a ton.
TARGET:
NO at SAC: This game doesn't have the highest over-under (3rd of 5), nor the quickest pace, but it does feature two defenses that have really struggled so far this season.
AVOID:
DAL at MEM: With the lowest over-under and two of the slowest eight teams in the league, this game could be a slug-fest. It's also the second night of a home-and-home back-to-back set, which can negatively impact performance.
GUARDS
Mike Conley, MEM vs. DAL ($7,100): Conley posted a slight profit on Wednesday, the first night of this back-to-back home-and-home series. He scored 21 points, and added five rebounds, three assists, and three three-pointers. With a smaller slate on Thursday, the exact same performance would be even more valuable. None of the Maverick's guards are up to the task of defending Conley, and Wesley Matthews is not the same defender he was five years ago. Going home for this game, Conley is set up for a good night Thursday.
Jerian Grant, CHI vs. ATL ($5,500): Grant is averaging 10.7 points and 7.3 assists in 31.0 minutes per game as the Bulls starting point guard. That's a lucrative role, and it is fairly stable. He's averaging 28.7 fantasy points per game, which is still profitable at this price. The Hawks are playing at one of the fastest rates in the league, and their defense has been below average. Grant gets almost all of his value from points, rebounds, and assists, which is good for daily games, since it means his production is slightly more predictable.
Austin Rivers, LAC at POR ($4,400): This recommendation assumes that Rivers starts again Thursday in place of the injured Milos Teodosic (foot). Teodosic is definitely out, but there remains the unlikely possibility that Rivers does not start in his place. As long as Rivers starts, he only needs to clear a low bar to provide fantasy value, and he's likely to see upwards of 30 minutes, giving him plenty of time to compile stats. In his first start for Teodosic, Rivers scored 16 points – he'll likely need little more than 16 fantasy points in order to profit Thursday. On top of that, the Trail Blazers have been notorious for their below-average backcourt defense over the past several years, so the opponent rank of sixth is likely heavily influenced by small sample size.
FORWARDS
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. BOS ($6,300): In the opener at Boston, Middleton tallied a tidy 15 points, nine rebounds, and six assists in 43 minutes on his way to 37.25 fantasy points. In his four games, he has twice scored more than 35 fantasy points, and he is averaging 35.5 minutes per game. On Thursday, he is in line for a ton of opportunity, against a team he had success against just last week.
Lauri Markkanen, CHI vs. ATL ($5,900): This is a pretty classic case of a player whose price hasn't risen fast enough. Markkanen's worst fantasy game so far, his NBA debut, was a 17 point, eight rebound, 28.5 fantasy point showing that would be pretty close to the break-even mark for Thursday's salary. Since then, he's only gotten better, making more threes, and averaging 16.3 points and 9.3 rebounds. He's got a solid chance at the double-double bonus every time he takes the floor. Simply matching his average fantasy points per game would mean he earned a small profit for fantasy managers. The Hawks are also the fastest paced team on the slate.
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL at MEM ($4,100): Maybe I've just spent too much time on NBA Twitter, but when I saw Nowitzki's salary, my initial thought was that DraftKings was trying to throw some subtle shade at Dirk. Then I remembered that such a notion was crazy, and I just added him to my roster. He's scored more than 23 fantasy points in three of his five games, including night one of this home-and-home. Nowitzki may not be the player that he used to be, but he's a lot better than this salary. In 2016-17, he averaged 9.5 rebounds against the Grizzlies, up from his overall season average of 6.5
CENTERS
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at POR ($7,800): Jordan is off to a scorching start, averaging an incredible 18.3 rebounds through his first three games. Jordan hasn't played the new-and-improved Portland version of Jusuf Nurkic, but Jordan had no problems manhandling the original Denver model. In games where both players played, and Nurkic saw at least 22 minutes, Jordan is averaging 16.7 rebounds and 12.3 points.
Robin Lopez, CHI vs. ATL ($5,700): Lopez struggled in his last game against the Cavaliers, but he'll look to rebound (get it?) against this young Hawks squad. Lopez average 17.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists over his first two games, but his scoring and rebounding fell off in the third. Lopez added a three-point shot to his arsenal this offseason, which is particularly helpful against the Hawks, as their centers are not equipped to properly defend Lopez along the perimeter.
Mike Muscala, ATL at CHI ($3,300): Assuming Ersan Ilyasova (knee) remains out Thursday, Muscala should be in line for increased run. Without Ilyasova on Monday, Muscala started and played 23 minutes. He's another big man with an above average perimeter shot, and while Robin Lopez may have developed a shot of his own, he's also not particularly well-suited to defending the perimeter. If Ilyasova plays, Muscala should probably be avoided, though in that case Ilyasova would become an intriguing potential option.
