This article is part of our Category Strategy series.
Trade Alert: Within minutes of finishing this article, the Raptors traded Terrence Ross (and a pick) for Serge Ibaka. Waiver wire players who may see a boost following this trade are, in approximate order of value: Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross, Norman Powell.
All-Star week is upon us. It's an unusual time for the NBA schedule, and the atypical schedule creates fantasy opportunity. First, there are no games Friday through Wednesday. Second, this coming Wednesday is one of the busiest nights of the season – it's only the third time this season that at least 14 games take place on a single day, and every team except the Bulls and Wizards play. Meanwhile, Tuesday and Thursday have only three and two games apiece, making them two of the lightest days this season.
This schedule is critically significant to the waiver wire. The Rockets and the Knicks both play only one game this week, and it is on Wednesday. That means that if your team has the more bench spots than it does Bulls and Wizards combined, a Rocket or a Knick is a worthless short-term waiver addition, since you will not be able to start him at all this week. The Celtics and the Pacers are the only teams with three games this week, but both teams play Wednesday, hurting their value.
The other 26 teams all play two games this week. The Bulls games come on Tuesday and Thursday, making them the most valuable waiver
Trade Alert: Within minutes of finishing this article, the Raptors traded Terrence Ross (and a pick) for Serge Ibaka. Waiver wire players who may see a boost following this trade are, in approximate order of value: Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross, Norman Powell.
All-Star week is upon us. It's an unusual time for the NBA schedule, and the atypical schedule creates fantasy opportunity. First, there are no games Friday through Wednesday. Second, this coming Wednesday is one of the busiest nights of the season – it's only the third time this season that at least 14 games take place on a single day, and every team except the Bulls and Wizards play. Meanwhile, Tuesday and Thursday have only three and two games apiece, making them two of the lightest days this season.
This schedule is critically significant to the waiver wire. The Rockets and the Knicks both play only one game this week, and it is on Wednesday. That means that if your team has the more bench spots than it does Bulls and Wizards combined, a Rocket or a Knick is a worthless short-term waiver addition, since you will not be able to start him at all this week. The Celtics and the Pacers are the only teams with three games this week, but both teams play Wednesday, hurting their value.
The other 26 teams all play two games this week. The Bulls games come on Tuesday and Thursday, making them the most valuable waiver team this week, ahead of the Celtics and Pacers. The Wizards, with games Monday and Thursday, are slightly behind the Celtics and Pacers in terms of value added from the schedule, but ahead of all of the other teams with two games. The Wizards are followed by the five teams with games Tuesday and Wednesday: the Cavaliers, Kings, Lakers, Raptors, and Timberwolves.
Most weeks, I mention schedules at the top of the column, and then mostly ignore them. In a normal week, not every league format is heavily impacted by schedules. However, when a week comes around where the schedule is this unusual, scheduling concerns dominate my picks. No matter what format you play in, the schedule will impact you this week. A few Knicks creep into the "other suggestions" lists – all of those are investments in players who might benefit from a trade, none of them are recommended as short-term adds.
Points
Kelly Olynyk, Celtics
(Ownership: ESPN – 8%; Yahoo – 28%; CBS – 44%)
Not only does the Celtics' schedule this week include an extra game, but the latter two games are against the 76ers and Bulls, both favorable fantasy opponents. Both teams rank in the bottom third in points allowed per game, and both teams rebound at a below-average rate. In fact, the 76ers 43.8 rebound percentage over the last 10 games is the lowest such figure I remember seeing -- ever (I've checked several times per week every week for the last three seasons). Now that science has figured out which hairstyle enables Olynyk to be his most productive, the manbun can be embraced to its full potential. Olynyk is averaging 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.5 threes over his last four games.
Other suggestions: Tim Hardaway Jr, Hawks; Dario Saric, 76ers; Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets; Jameer Nelson, Nuggets
Three-Pointers
Jameer Nelson, Nuggets
(Ownership: ESPN – 10%; Yahoo – 17%; CBS – 32%)
The Nuggets' trade last weekend, wherein they gave up a first round pick, confirms what was already suspected: Denver is committed to pursuing the final playoff spot in the West. They currently hold that spot but are only two games ahead of the Trail Blazers and the Kings, with the Mavericks, Pelicans, and Timberwolves also close behind. The competition for the final playoff spot is so fierce, and there are so few terrible teams this season, that if a team decided to "focus on the future" they could easily fall into one of the top five or six draft spots. Therefore, the Nuggets, a team loaded with young talent, might reasonably have become deadline sellers. Their commitment to this year is great news for Nelson's value, because it ensures that rotation decisions will be driven by current production, not future potential. Nelson's 'current production' is highlighted by 3.3 threes per game over his last four outings. Nelson took over the starting point guard role in late January – since then, the Nuggets have a winning record, including wins against the Warriors and Jazz.
Channing Frye is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the latest Kevin Love (knee) news. Love missed two games on January 30 and February 1, and Frye started one and saw extra minutes in both. Richard Jefferson probably sees a bigger boost in minutes, but he does less for fantasy purposes.
Other suggestions: Nick Young, Lakers; Jamal Crawford, Clippers; Bojan Bogdanovic, Nets; Channing Frye, Cavaliers; Gary Harris, Nuggets; Anthony Tolliver, Kings
Rebounds
Michael Carter-Williams, Bulls
(Ownership: ESPN – 13%; Yahoo – 20%; CBS – 43%)
Big rebounds from a guard, plus the most favorable schedule in the league make Carter-Williams the best pick for board help this week. The schedule after the All-Star break doesn't really place any team at a disadvantage, so he won't need to be quickly dropped for the calendar's sake. Jimmy Butler (heel) missed four of the last five games, and Carter-Williams has seen a big increase in minutes during those contests, averaging 30.3 per game. With the trade deadline nearing and rumors about possible Butler deals circling, the Bulls are unlikely to risk pushing Butler back into action if he is not 100 percent ready. Therefore, even though Carter-Williams has very little value when Butler is active, he is still an appealing pickup despite Butler's day-to-day tag. If Butler is moved, then Carter-Williams' value over the rest of the season will skyrocket. Carter-Williams averages 7.6 rebounds per 36 minutes this season.
Other suggestions: Dewayne Dedmon, Spurs; Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers; Frank Kaminsky, Hornets; David Lee, Spurs
Assists
Austin Rivers, Clippers
(Ownership: ESPN – 42%; Yahoo – 50%; CBS – 81%)
When Chris Paul (thumb) first went down, both Rivers and Raymond Felton benefited from extra minutes. But Paul has now missed 12 games, and Felton's production and minutes have lagged. Rivers has taken control, averaging 35.7 minutes, 14.2 points, and 4.8 assists over his past six games. Felton can be dropped in most formats, and Rivers is establishing himself enough that he may retain value when Paul returns.
Other suggestions: Marcus Smart, Celtics; Brandon Jennings, Knicks; Jameer Nelson, Nuggets; T.J. McConnell, 76ers
Steals
Marcus Smart, Celtics
(Ownership: ESPN – 37%; Yahoo – 69%; CBS – 85%)
Avery Bradley (Achilles) may be nearing his return, which will damage Smart's value. However, it seems unlikely he'll return before the All-star break, so Smart should be able to make the most of the Celtics' advantageous schedule. He has three or more steals in four of his last six games, and he has also been a solid contributor in other areas. During that six-game stretch, he is averaging 33.3 minutes, 13.2 points, 4.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.7 steals.
Other suggestions: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
Blocks
Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers
(Ownership: ESPN – 36%; Yahoo – 60%; CBS – 70%)
As a rookie in 2014-15, Nurkic averaged 1.1 blocks per game in 17.8 minutes. He surged midseason, reaching 1.8 blocks during 21.9 minutes in January, and 1.6 blocks during 24.4 minutes in February. His performance, which included excellent rebounding and a strong knack for steals, inspired such optimism that some reports before the 2015 trade deadline indicated that he was the only player on the Nuggets roster made off-limits for negotiations. He has fallen a long way since then. Injuries deprived him of most of his sophomore season. He's been, frankly, not good so far this season. Even before the 2014 draft, one of Nurkic's negatives was that he was a bit of a head case, and a poor attitude is one of the explanations Denver reporters are citing to explain his poor play in 2016-17. Now in Portland after last weekend's trade, he should have opportunity to start a new chapter and play more consistent minutes. He may continue to play poorly, but there is also the potential that he may finally deliver on the promising start that was his rookie season. One thing managers should remain aware of: Nurkic is a very poor free throw shooter, and if his minutes increase, so too will his negative free throw impact.
Other suggestions: Kyle O'Quinn, Knicks
