This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Watch out for the Warriors-Jazz and the Bulls-Spurs matchups Thursday, as all four rank among the 11 teams allowing the fewest points per possession over the past 10 games. The latter game may be particularly problematic for fantasy players, since both of those teams also rank among the seven slowest teams. The speed of the game in Utah is difficult to anticipate, as the Jazz are the second-slowest team in the league, while the Warriors are the second-fastest.
GUARDS
Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. MIN ($38): Thursday is not a great night for high-priced guards, and with so many good cheap options – many listed below – I'd recommend saving money for the rest of your lineup. That said, if you want to spend on a guard, Lowry looks like the best option. The Timberwolves allow one of the highest field goal percentages in the league, and they allow above-average steals while forcing below-average turnovers. I prefer Lowry to his similarly priced teammate DeMar DeRozan because Lowry is riding a string of five straight games with at least 40 fantasy points, while DeRozan has hit that mark only once in that period.
Jameer Nelson, DEN at WAS ($10): The reasons Nelson was a solid fantasy option Wednesday apply Thursday as well, as he averages one of the highest payoff rates in the league, nearly doubling his salary in fantasy-point production. In the four games before Wednesday, Nelson's fantasy points per dollar had increased even higher – averaging 25 fantasy points per night, or 2.5 points per dollar. The Wizards are not as bad as the Nets, who Nelson faced Wednesday, but they are still a favorable fantasy opponent.
Other suggestions: Troy Daniels, MEM vs. POR ($12); Shelvin Mack*, UTA vs. GS ($10); Tim Frazier**, NO vs. PHI ($22)
*Assuming George Hill (toe) remains out.
** Assuming Jrue Holiday (toe) remains out.
Guard to Avoid
Rajon Rondo, CHI vs. SA ($27): As stated above, this game looks like a fantasy nightmare, as it's expected to be the lowest scoring one of the night. Rondo has only four assists and five rebounds in his past two games combined while also committing eight turnovers. Rondo has been underpriced most of the season but there is no sugar-coating how bad he has looked in his past two games. Until he once again shows that he can contribute at least at a middling level, stay away.
FORWARDS
Gordon Hayward, UTA vs. GS ($38): Hayward has been really good this season, putting up career-hights in points, rebounds and free throw percentage. And he is doing that while playing fewer minutes than he did last season, and committing fewer turnovers than he has in the past three seasons. Over his past five games, his numbers are even better, averaging 29.2 points, 2.8 threes, 4.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. He has totaled at least 46 fantasy points in three of those, and at least 38 in all of them.
Dario Saric, PHI at NO ($10): The Sixers are quietly challenging the Grizzlies, Heat, Pelicans and Mavericks for the unfortunate title of most injury-ravaged team. Down Ben Simmons, Nerlens Noel, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless and probably Jahlil Okafor on Thursday, Saric will be asked to carry a significant load. He's been impressive in his last three outings, averaging 18.3 points and 9.0 rebounds in 27 minutes per game. Even half that production would represent a significant profit.
Other suggestions: Andre Iguodala, GS at UTA ($10); Maurice Harkless, POR at MEM ($19)
Forward to Avoid
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA at CHI ($28): Similar to my concerns about Rondo, I really don't want this matchup in my lineup. On top of that, Adrigde has had two single-digit points games in his last four, which is a concerning trend. In order for Aldridge to make a fantasy profit, he needs his scoring numbers to be much higher, and his recent trend, plus the matchup, leaves me no confidence that he'll post enough points Thursday.
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at TOR ($41): Towns' matchup, Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas, has been dreadful the past four games. When operating at full capacity, Valanciunas is less skilled and less athletic than Towns. Besides the promising matchup, Towns has a high floor and an almost non-existent ceiling, as he's only failed to reach 30 fantasy points once this season, and he has reached 50 in three of his past nine.
Other suggestions: Lucas Nogueira, TOR vs. MIN ($10); Marc Gasol, MEM vs. POR ($31)
Center to Avoid
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR vs MIN ($22): There is a non-zero chance that, sometime between Nov. 28 and Nov. 30, the Monstars stole Valnciunas' talent. I have not heard a more convincing explanation for how someone averaging a double-double suddenly finds himself in the middle of a four-game stretch where he is averaging only 4.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 0.5 blocks per game while shooting just 31.8 percent from the field. He'll turn it around eventually, but it's better to let him get back on track before inserting him into daily lineups, as the downside here is far too large.
