Yahoo DFS Basketball: Thursday Picks

Yahoo DFS Basketball: Thursday Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.

As odd as it sounds, the Warriors have been one of the more favorable fantasy opponents so far this season. Their defense ranks among the worst per possession, and they play the fastest pace in the league. They are playing the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back, another favorable fantasy opponent. The Kings and Lakers also face off in a matchup of favorable teams to target, and with only four games to choose from, I recommend building lineups around those two contests.

GUARDS

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. NOP ($51): There are some very good and cheap options available, which makes this a great night for what I like to call a "studs and duds" lineup – except with the benefit of the duds being underpriced low-to-middle-tier players. Antetokounmpo is one of the biggest studs of the slate. He's struggled to return profitable value for this lofty price, but he has also provided a consistently high floor, only once scoring below 42 fantasy points. On a short slate of games, the scores required to win are typically lower. This makes the high floor more appealing, even if there is less hope of a put-your-fantasy-lineup-on-his-back type of performance.

Josh Richardson, MIA vs. CHI ($10): Richardson is progressing rapidly in his return from a knee injury. He played only 10 minutes in his first game back, but that increased to 25 for his second appearance Monday. In that latter game he had seven points and four rebounds, enough for a modest profit on a $10 salary. He is also capable of pitching in a few assists, which he had none of Monday, so that is an additional area for growth in his fantasy value.

Other suggestions: Tim Frazier, NOP at MIL ($26); D'Angelo Russell, LAL at SAC ($26); Buddy Hield, NOP at MIL ($10)

Guard to Avoid

Rajon Rondo, CHI at MIA ($29): Rondo is simply not worth this salary as he is riding a four-game streak of fewer than 25 fantasy points, falling short of double-digit points in each one. Even before this slump, Rondo has little to justify a salary this high, reaching 30 fantasy points only once.

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FORWARDS

Draymond Green, GSW at DEN ($39): Green has been incredibly consistent this season, scoring at least 33 fantasy points, with at least eight rebounds, 14 points plus assists and two steals plus blocks in every game. He's a jack of all trades, and he finds ways to stay involved on both sides of the floor. As with Antetokounmpo, his ceiling is not particularly high, but he provides a strong and steady floor.

Terrence Jones, NOP at MIL ($12): The difference between a good night and a bad night for Jones is giant, as there is always the possibility of disaster. He already has two single-digit fantasy nights, but he has also exceeded 20 fantasy points in three of his last four outings, including 45.9 last Friday. He's averaging 24.3 minutes per game over the last four, and the reward may be worth the risk.

Other suggestions: Rudy Gay, SAC vs. LAL ($26); Solomon Hill, NOP at MIL ($10); Doug McDermott, CHI at MIA ($10)

Forward to Avoid

Nikola Mirotic, CHI at MIA ($19): Mirotic has stopped playing meaningful minutes. After playing at least 25 minutes in the first four games of the season, ha has played fewer than 22 in every game since, including two games below 14. If that wasn't enough, the Heat are one of the best per-possession defenses in the league.

CENTERS

Jusuf Nurkic, DEN vs. GSW ($22): Nurkic has outperformed this salary for most of the season, and while he has slowed down in his past two games both have compelling explanations. In the first, his minutes were limited in part due to a blowout win against a hobbled Celtics frontcourt. In the second, he faced off against Marc Gasol, still one of the more challenging center opponents in the league – and despite the matchup, Nurkic produced close to fair value for this price. Look for him to get back on track in Thursday's fantasy-friendly contest.

Center to Avoid

Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. CHI ($41): Whiteside is another player with lots of daylight between his best and worst performances. Being a boom-or-bust player isn't a problem in itself, and it can even be advantageous in some fantasy settings. But Whiteside's price isn't appropriately centered between the min and max of his production ranges. On his best nights, he can reach the mid-40s or low-50s in fantasy points – a good but not great profit. But on his worst nights, such as when he had 23.4 fantasy points Monday, he can devastate a lineup. He is only worth using if you are highly confident of a good night. Whiteside is better than any Bulls big man, but the Bulls are the second-best rebounding team in the league, and much of Whiteside's value depends on his ability to clean the glass.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Rikleen plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: arikleen, DraftKings: arikleen.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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