This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Toronto Raptors at Portland Trail Blazers
The Raptors could reasonably be the focus of Thursday's "offense to use," but I focused on their offense last week. More importantly, there are only two semi-reasonable options here – of the eight teams playing Thursday, six rank in the bottom third of the league for defensive efficiency over their last 10 games. Of the remaining two teams, the Raptors are significantly more intimidating than the Blazers. The Blazers recent results give the appearance of a solid defense, but they have built up some misleadingly impressive statistics, since nine of their past 10 games have been against sub-.500 teams. They remain in the bottom half of the league, defensively, over the whole season. The Raptors, however, have been a top-10 defense all season. They are also one of the slowest teams in the league, and they get more than 51 percent of available rebounds (which ranks seventh overall).
Offenses to Use
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Lakers
As mentioned above, almost all of Thursday's eight teams are poor defensively. This actually makes life harder for daily gamers, since all the bad defenses cancel each other out – everyone (except the Blazers) faces a worse than usual opponent, and so everyone (except the Blazers) can anticipate improved box scores. The Knicks, long one of my favorite DFS punching bags, actually rank as one of the tougher opponents on the slate. The Lakers, however, remain one of the worst defenses, this night and every night. They rank last on the season, and second-to=last over their last 10 games, in defensive efficiency. They also rank in the bottom five for rebound percentage, opponent points, opponent assists and opponent field goal percentage. Not only are the Lakers very bad, but the Pelicans' offense has been playing very well, second only to the Warriors in points per possession over their past 10 games.
Teams on Back-to-Backs
First Game: Knicks
Second game: Pistons, Pelicans
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Norris Cole, NOP vs. LAL ($5,800): There is a lot of value in the Pelicans' backcourt, but assuming Tyreke Evans (knee) remains out, Cole should be the best value. Since the Evans injury, Cole's worst nights have had him scoring double-digit points with fantasy points totals in the low 20s. At this salary, that would be as somewhat disappointing though productive enough to keep gamers competitive. His best nights, on the other hand, have him scoring in the teens and posting fantasy point totals of 43.25, 38.75 and 33.5, which all came in his last four games.
Other suggestions: Jrue Holiday, NOP vs LAL ($7,200); Patrick Beverley, HOU at PHO ($4,900)
Shooting Guard
Gerald Henderson, POR vs TOR ($3,200): Henderson has topped 20 minutes and 13.5 fantasy points in five straight games. Since nights with a short slate of games typically require lower point totals to win, it's entirely possible that simply recreating his worst night of this stretch will be enough for daily players to break even. In four of those five, however, Henderson has scored in double figures and exceeded 17 fantasy points, which qualifies as a profit for his salary on even the busiest nights.
Other suggestions: Langston Galloway, NYK at DET ($5,000); Arron Afflalo, NYK at DET ($4,700);
Note: My analytics database loves Thursday's shooting guard crop, so consider giving extra attention to this position when filling your utility spot.
Small Forward
P.J. Tucker, PHO vs HOU ($5,400): Tucker's cost is a little on the high side, but there are not a lot of good options at small forward. He's getting a ton of minutes, averaging 37 per game over the last five, so he should have ample opportunities. Furthermore, the Rockets' defense has really struggled lately, even by Thursday's abysmally low standards. Though there are a lot of good cheap options at other positions, a good strategic alternative might be to take Alonzo Gee, his unexciting recent box scores, his tiny salary, and hope for the best.
Other suggestions: Al-Farouq Aminu, POR vs. TOR ($5,200); Alonzo Gee, NOP vs. LAL ($3,700)
Power Forward
Ryan Anderson, NOP vs LAL ($6,400): Anderson isn't exactly a great value – which is a gentle way of saying he's overpriced – but if you've been using my suggestions then you probably have a lot of budget left to spare. After Anderson's poor showing Monday, very few people are likely to bite on Anderson, increasing his value if he can turn a profit. Before Monday, however, he had scored at least 22 points and 36 fantasy points in four straight games. The Lakers' poor defense and struggles with rebounding should open up extra opportunities for Anderson.
Other suggestions: Julius Randle, LAL at NOP ($6,700)
Center
Andre Drummond, DET vs NYK ($8,600): Drummond is a rebounding monster. His Thursday opponent, Robin Lopez, is a known for two things: tormenting mascots and poor rebounding. In fairness to Lopez, he is actually a good center, especially when it comes to efficient scoring and capable defense. But he is a particularly poor matchup for Drummond. Last season, in two games against Lopez's Blazers, Drummond averaged three rebounds per game more than his season average.
Other suggestions: Robin Lopez, NYK at DET ($5,100)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, G, DET (groin)
Jodie Meeks, G, DET (foot)
Sam Dekker, F, HOU (back)
Montrezl Harrell, F, HOU (illness)
Terrence Jones, F, HOU (personal)
Donatas Motiejunas, F, HOU (back)
Larry Nance, F, LAL (knee)
Tyreke Evans, G, NO (knee)
Eric Gordon, G, NO (finger)
Cleanthony Early, F, NY (knee)
Ronnie Price, G, PHO (foot)
DeMarre Carroll, F, TOR (knee)
Game-Time Decision
Clint Capela, F, HOU (hip)
Tarik Black, C, LAL (foot)
Kobe Bryant, G, LAL (shoulder)
Jose Calderon, G, NY (groin)
Brandon Knight, G, PHO (groin)
Noah Vonleh, F, POR (ankle)
James Johnson, F, TOR (ankle)
