This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings
Several strong defenses face below-average offenses Thursday, including the Grizzlies (at the Nuggets) and Pistons (at the Pelicans). The game that demands more detailed analysis, however, is the Hawks visiting the Kings. The Hawks' defense has moved into the top 10 for defensive efficiency, bolstered by an especially impressive run during their past 10 games when they've had the fourth-best defense in the league. The Kings' offense is on a similarly impressive streak, ranking sixth over the same period. It's unfair to expect the Hawks to totally shut down the Kings, but take the Kings' recent performances with a grain of salt when setting your expectations for Thursday.
Offenses to Use
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers and the Cavaliers are arguably the best offenses in action Thursday, but both of them have the challenge of facing above-average defenses. It may be worth targeting the Cavs for two reasons, one statistical, and the other emotional. Rebound percentage – a statistic that measures exactly what it sounds like – is an area I've been paying increasing attention to recently. Higher rebound percentages not only have a direct impact in fantasy performance (i.e. getting more rebounds) but they also have the secondary impact of generating extra opportunities for points and assists. The Cavaliers rank in the top five for rebound percentage, while the Clippers rank in the bottom five, with or without Blake Griffin. As for the emotional reason – the 34-point blowout loss to the Warriors was a major moment for the Cavs. If they think they are title contenders, then they are going to be on a mission to prove that, as much to themselves as to anyone else. They soundly defeated the lowly Nets on Wednesday, but Thursday's matchup against the Clippers is their first meaningful opportunity.
Teams on Back-to-Backs
First game: Clippers, Spurs
Second game: Cavaliers, Hawks, Kings, Pistons
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Patty Mills, SAS at PHO ($3,500): This recommendation is a direct result of Tony Parker (hip) being ruled out for Thursday. When Mills started for Parker two weeks ago, he scored 10 points and had five assists en route to 19.75 fantasy points – a small but healthy profit for his low salary. This time, Mills will face the Suns, one of the worst defenses in the league, and an especially weak defense when it comes to opposing point guards. Mills is a great player for cash games for two reasons: first, he is likely to post a small profit, and second, he is likely to be widely used, so even if he struggles, the damage will be minimized since so many of your opponents will also have him. Conversely, Mills is a worse fit for GPP formats, because Parker's injury makes Mills a more obvious pick, and therefore more commonly used player.
Other suggestions: Jrue Holiday, NOP vs. DET ($6,500); Mike Conley, MEM at DEN ($6,200)
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford, LAC at CLE ($4,700): Let everyone else work themselves into a frenzy over J.J. Redick's 40-point game. Let them chase yesterday's points – and I suspect many will. Meanwhile, you and I can focus on Crawford. Entry-level projection databases will highlight both players, since both players have strong recent productivity compared to their Thursday costs, but closer inspection reveals Crawford to be the far superior selection. Over their past four games, Crawford is averaging only 4.1 fewer fantasy points than Redick, but costs nearly a grand less and has been far more consistent. Crawford has scored between 22.50 and 27.75 fantasy points during that span, while Redick has ranged from 17.25 to 48.25. Crawford's minutes have also been more consistent. Both are decent options, as they are fairly priced and shooting guard is the weakest part of the Cavaliers' defense, but I'll be sticking with Crawford.
Other suggestions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET at NOP ($5,800); Gary Harris, DEN vs. MEM ($4,600);
Small Forward
Danilo Gallinari, DEN vs MEM ($7,100): The matchup against the Grizzlies is more favorable than it first appears. They are below average defending the three, and while the Grizzlies' defense is strong overall, they are actually an easier than average opponent for small forwards. Gallinari has scored at least 20 points and 33 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. Despite this hot streak, his salary has barely budged, as he only costs $400 more than he did at the beginning of this run.
Other suggestions: P.J. Tucker*, PHO vs SAS ($5,000); Thabo Sefolosha, ATL at SAC ($4,000)
*Assuming at least one of Markieff Morris (shoulder), Mirza Teletovic (ankle) or Jon Leuer (back) does not play. If all three sit, Tucker becomes one of the most desirable options at any position. If all three are active, then I recommend avoiding him.
Power Forward
Paul Millsap, ATL at SAC ($8,200): The is the corollary to the Mills recommendation, above. Where Mills is a better fit for cash games, Millsap is the opposite. He is a strong candidate for GPPs, but should probably be avoided in 50-50 style leagues. His opponent, the Kings, are one of the worst defenses in the league. His probable matchup, DeMarcus Cousins, has a reputation for taking some plays off on defense. And when Millsap is having a good night, he posts large profits. In his last 10 games, he totaled fantasy points in the high 50s twice and in the high 40s three times. The problem – which makes him a liability in those 50-50 style leagues – is that when he isn't killing it, he's barely holding water. He totaled 36 fantasy points or fewer in four of his last 10 games, a damaging tally at his salary. That kind of high-risk, high-reward production is perfectly suited for GPP players.
Other suggestions: DeMarcus Cousins, SAC vs ATL ($10,600); LaMarcus Aldridge, SAS at PHO ($7,100);
Center
Marc Gasol, MEM at DEN ($7,600): I could just as easily devote this space to DeAndre Jordan, and, knowing me, I'll probably go back and forth between the two several times before the games start. Gasol's main advantage is his opponent, the Nuggets, who rank below-average in every major defensive metric. Until Jusuf Nurkic (ankle, knee) returns to full health, the Nuggets lack a starting caliber NBA center (and even then, I may be optimistically judging the current state of Nurkic's development). Add in Gasol's recent production - at least 39.75 points in four straight games - and this salary looks like a giant bargain.
Other suggestions: DeAndre Jordan, LAC at CLE ($7,500)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Jodie Meeks, G, DET (foot)
Blake Griffin, F, LAC (quadriceps)
Jordan Adams, G, MEM (knee)
Brandan Wright, F, MEM (knee)
Eric Gordon, G, NO (finger)
Ronnie Price, G, PHO (foot)
Duje Dukan, F, SAC (leg)
Eric Moreland, F, SAC (foot)
Tony Parker, G, SA (hip)
Game-Time Decision
Jameer Nelson, G, DEN (wrist)
Jon Leuer, F, PHO (back)
Markieff Morris, F, PHO (shoulder
Mirza Teletovic, F, PHO (ankle)
T.J. Warren, F, PHO (knee)
