This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
NBA Playoffs Cheat Sheet 2014
People call the playoffs the REAL season because that's when things are ultimately decided. But in the NBA it's more than that…the playoffs are the real season because it is the first and only time all year you can be sure everyone is going all out on a nightly basis. No more superstars missing games to rest for the postseason (wooo-hooo!). No more having to scan the waiver wire for backups that could be potential studs when the nominal starter shuts it down for the year. No more teams sitting their entire starting lineups (like the Pacers did last week). No, in the postseason you'll be getting everyone's max effort, which will make a big difference.
But the second big difference is that, in many NBA postseason leagues, you have to choose your players based upon who you think will do the best in the postseason before the playoffs even begin. And games count, so it does little good to pick the No. 1 fantasy player in the league if he's out in the first round after five games. Instead, it might be smarter to invest in a top-20 guy who has a shot to make the Finals and play in 20-plus games. NBA postseason fantasy leagues make you, the fantasy owner, try your hand at predicting what will happen on the court with consequences if you're wrong.
The Matchups
There's a significant difference in the caliber of the average postseason team in the Western
NBA Playoffs Cheat Sheet 2014
People call the playoffs the REAL season because that's when things are ultimately decided. But in the NBA it's more than that…the playoffs are the real season because it is the first and only time all year you can be sure everyone is going all out on a nightly basis. No more superstars missing games to rest for the postseason (wooo-hooo!). No more having to scan the waiver wire for backups that could be potential studs when the nominal starter shuts it down for the year. No more teams sitting their entire starting lineups (like the Pacers did last week). No, in the postseason you'll be getting everyone's max effort, which will make a big difference.
But the second big difference is that, in many NBA postseason leagues, you have to choose your players based upon who you think will do the best in the postseason before the playoffs even begin. And games count, so it does little good to pick the No. 1 fantasy player in the league if he's out in the first round after five games. Instead, it might be smarter to invest in a top-20 guy who has a shot to make the Finals and play in 20-plus games. NBA postseason fantasy leagues make you, the fantasy owner, try your hand at predicting what will happen on the court with consequences if you're wrong.
The Matchups
There's a significant difference in the caliber of the average postseason team in the Western Conference vs. the Eastern Conference. Out West, the average playoff team has 55 wins, while in the East the average playoff team has 47 wins. Said another way, the average Eastern Conference team wouldn't even have made the postseason out West…or alternatively, the ninth seed in the West would have had home court advantage in the East. It's just an entirely different world. The upshot is that it is much more difficult to predict which teams will come through the West than it is in the East. This comes into play as we try to figure out which players are more likely to play more postseason games. Here are the seeds in both conferences:
East
1) Indiana
2) Miami
3) Toronto
4) Chicago
5) Washington
6) Brooklyn
7) Charlotte
8) Atlanta
West
1) San Antonio
2) Oklahoma City
3) LA Clippers
4) Houston
5) Portland
6) Golden State
7) Memphis
8) Dallas
Team Tiers
1) Miami, San Antonio
2) Indiana, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers
3) Brooklyn, Houston, Chicago, Toronto, Portland
4) Golden State, Dallas, Memphis, Washington
5) Charlotte, Atlanta
My tier system is based upon who I feel has the best odds to make it the furthest. Miami has clearly been the class of the East, especially since Indiana had such hard times down the stretch. The Nets, Bulls, Wizards and Raptors look to be tough outs in the East but a clear step down. I feel it unlikely that the Bobcats or Hawks will win a round.
Out West, San Antonio is the class of the conference. The Thunder and Clippers are the other contenders, followed by the Rockets and Blazers. The Warriors, Mavs and Griz are unlikely to win their first round matchup, but anything is possible.
The tiers reflect the number of expected games. For uniformity, let's say that tier one is expected to play 18 games, tier two 15 games, tier three 12 games, tier four nine games and tier five six games. The estimates are not meant to be exact but instead to give general expectations for the rankings.
Points system and rankings
These rankings are based on a points-based scoring approach, as opposed to rotisserie. Each points-based league has its own scoring system, but these rankings were generated from this system:
1 point scored = 0.3 fantasy point (fp)
1 assist = 0.5 fp
1 rebound = 0.4 fp
1 steal = 0.7 fp
1 block = 0.7 fp
Based on this scoring system, how the players performed this season, and the team-tier levels above, here are our postseason rankings:
Player | Team | Reg Season Average | Expected games | Expected total |
LeBron James | MIA | 15.4 | 18 | 277.2 |
Kevin Durant | OKC | 16.7 | 15 | 250.5 |
Chris Paul | LAC | 14.6 | 15 | 219 |
Blake Griffin | LAC | 14.2 | 15 | 213 |
Tim Duncan | SAS | 11.6 | 18 | 208.8 |
Russell Westbrook | OKC | 13.7 | 15 | 205.5 |
Paul George | IND | 12.5 | 15 | 187.5 |
Dwyane Wade | MIA | 11.2 | 16 | 179.2 |
DeAndre Jordan | LAC | 11.4 | 15 | 171 |
Chris Bosh | MIA | 9.5 | 18 | 171 |
LaMarcus Aldridge | POR | 14 | 12 | 168 |
James Harden | HOU | 13.9 | 12 | 166.8 |
Tony Parker | SAS | 9.2 | 18 | 165.6 |
Kawhi Leonard | SAS | 9.1 | 18 | 163.8 |
Serge Ibaka | OKC | 10.8 | 15 | 162 |
Dwight Howard | HOU | 13.1 | 12 | 157.2 |
Joakim Noah | CHI | 12.9 | 12 | 154.8 |
Lance Stephenson | IND | 9.9 | 15 | 148.5 |
Kyle Lowry | TOR | 12.2 | 12 | 146.4 |
Manu Ginobili | SAS | 7.98 | 18 | 143.64 |
David West | IND | 9.5 | 15 | 142.5 |
Mario Chalmers | MIA | 7.9 | 18 | 142.2 |
DeMar DeRozan | TOR | 11.5 | 12 | 138 |
Damian Lillard | POR | 11.1 | 12 | 133.2 |
Jamal Crawford | LAC | 8.8 | 15 | 132 |
Stephen Curry | GSW | 14.5 | 9 | 130.5 |
Nicolas Batum | POR | 10.6 | 12 | 127.2 |
Roy Hibbert | IND | 8.3 | 15 | 124.5 |
Chandler Parsons | HOU | 10.3 | 12 | 123.6 |
John Wall | WAS | 13.4 | 9 | 120.6 |
Boris Diaw | SAS | 6.5 | 18 | 117 |
Tiago Splitter | SAS | 6.4 | 18 | 115.2 |
Deron Williams | BKN | 9.6 | 12 | 115.2 |
Marco Belinelli | SAS | 6.2 | 18 | 111.6 |
D.J. Augustin | CHI | 9.25 | 12 | 111 |
Danny Green | SAS | 6.1 | 18 | 109.8 |
George Hill | IND | 7.2 | 15 | 108 |
Darren Collison | LAC | 7.2 | 15 | 108 |
Reggie Jackson | OKC | 7.14 | 15 | 107.1 |
Jimmy Butler | CHI | 8.9 | 12 | 106.8 |
Carlos Boozer | CHI | 8.9 | 12 | 106.8 |
J.J. Redick | LAC | 7.1 | 15 | 106.5 |
Robin Lopez | POR | 8.6 | 12 | 103.2 |
Monta Ellis | DAL | 11.4 | 9 | 102.6 |
Dirk Nowitzki | DAL | 11.4 | 9 | 102.6 |
Taj Gibson | CHI | 8.5 | 12 | 102 |
Matt Barnes | LAC | 6.8 | 15 | 102 |
Terrence Jones | HOU | 8.4 | 12 | 100.8 |
Zach Randolph | MEM | 11.2 | 9 | 100.8 |
Ray Allen | MIA | 5.6 | 18 | 100.8 |
Wesley Matthews | POR | 8.3 | 12 | 99.6 |
David Lee | GSW | 11 | 9 | 99 |
Chris Andersen | MIA | 5.5 | 18 | 99 |
Patty Mills | SAS | 5.5 | 18 | 99 |
Paul Pierce | BKN | 8.2 | 12 | 98.4 |
Jonas Valanciunas | TOR | 8.1 | 12 | 97.2 |
Marc Gasol | MEM | 10.7 | 9 | 96.3 |
Joe Johnson | BKN | 8 | 12 | 96 |
Kevin Garnett | BKN | 8 | 12 | 96 |
Mike Conley | MEM | 10.5 | 9 | 94.5 |
Jeremy Lin | HOU | 7.8 | 12 | 93.6 |
Amir Johnson | TOR | 7.8 | 12 | 93.6 |
Marcin Gortat | WAS | 10 | 9 | 90 |
Andray Blatche | BKN | 7.4 | 12 | 88.8 |
Norris Cole | MIA | 4.9 | 18 | 88.2 |
Mike Dunleavy | CHI | 7.2 | 12 | 86.4 |
Patrick Beverley | TOR | 7.1 | 12 | 85.2 |
Trevor Airza | WAS | 9.3 | 9 | 83.7 |
Michael Beasley | MIA | 4.6 | 18 | 82.8 |
Bradley Beal | WAS | 9.1 | 9 | 81.9 |
Kirk Hinrich | CHI | 6.8 | 12 | 81.6 |
Al Jefferson | CHA | 13.4 | 6 | 80.4 |
Klay Thompson | GSW | 8.8 | 9 | 79.2 |
Thabo Sefolosha | OKC | 5.2 | 15 | 78 |
Mo Williams | POR | 6.5 | 12 | 78 |
Glen Davis | LAC | 5.12 | 15 | 76.8 |
Evan Turner | IND | 5.1 | 15 | 76.5 |
Patrick Patterson | TOR | 6.3 | 12 | 75.6 |
Luis Scola | IND | 5 | 15 | 75 |
Jeremy Lamb | OKC | 5 | 15 | 75 |
Paul Millsap | ATL | 12.3 | 6 | 73.8 |
Andre Iguodala | GSW | 8 | 9 | 72 |
Danny Granger | LAC | 4.8 | 15 | 72 |
Omer Asik | HOU | 5.9 | 12 | 70.8 |
Shaun Livingston | BKN | 5.85 | 12 | 70.2 |
Terrence Ross | TOR | 5.8 | 12 | 69.6 |
Shawn Marion | DAL | 7.7 | 9 | 69.3 |
Nene | WAS | 7.52 | 9 | 67.68 |
Lavoy Allen | IND | 4.5 | 15 | 67.5 |
Jose Calderon | DAL | 7.4 | 9 | 66.6 |
Mason Plumlee | BKN | 5.5 | 12 | 66 |
Vince Carter | DAL | 7.1 | 9 | 63.9 |
C.J. Watson | IND | 4.2 | 15 | 63 |
Kendrick Perkins | OKC | 4.2 | 15 | 63 |
Marcus Thornton | BKN | 5.2 | 12 | 62.4 |
Greivis Vasquez | TOR | 5.185 | 12 | 62.22 |
Jared Dudley | LAC | 4.1 | 15 | 61.5 |
Mirza Teletovic | BKN | 5 | 12 | 60 |
Tony Allen | MEM | 6.5 | 9 | 58.5 |
Nick Collison | OKC | 3.8 | 15 | 57 |
Draymond Green | GSW | 6.3 | 9 | 56.7 |
Caron Butler | OKC | 3.78 | 15 | 56.7 |
Omri Casspi | HOU | 4.7 | 12 | 56.4 |
Steven Adams | OKC | 3.7 | 15 | 55.5 |
Andrew Bogut | GSW | 6.16 | 9 | 55.44 |
Samuel Dalembert | DAL | 6.1 | 9 | 54.9 |
Andrei Kirilenko | BKN | 4.5 | 12 | 54 |
Devin Harris | DAL | 6 | 9 | 54 |
Jordan Hamilton | HOU | 4.5 | 12 | 54 |
Harrison Barnes | GSW | 5.9 | 9 | 53.1 |
James Johnson | MEM | 5.9 | 9 | 53.1 |
Brandan Wright | DAL | 5.7 | 9 | 51.3 |
Jermaine O'Neal | GSW | 5.7 | 9 | 51.3 |
Drew Gooden | WAS | 5.5 | 9 | 49.5 |
Alan Anderson | BKN | 4.1 | 12 | 49.2 |
Jordan Crawford | GSW | 5.44 | 9 | 48.96 |
Courtney Lee | MEM | 5.4 | 9 | 48.6 |
Trevor Booker | WAS | 5.4 | 9 | 48.6 |
Gerald Henderson | CHA | 7.9 | 6 | 47.4 |
Kosta Koufos | MEM | 5.2 | 9 | 46.8 |
Martell Webster | WAS | 5.2 | 9 | 46.8 |
Francisco Garcia | HOU | 3.9 | 12 | 46.8 |
Josh Powell | HOU | 3.9 | 12 | 46.8 |
Thomas Robinson | POR | 3.9 | 12 | 46.8 |
John Salmons | TOR | 3.9 | 12 | 46.8 |
Tyler Hansbrough | TOR | 3.9 | 12 | 46.8 |
DeMarre Carroll | ATL | 7.7 | 6 | 46.2 |
Kyle Korver | ATL | 7.6 | 6 | 45.6 |
Donatas Motiejunas | HOU | 3.8 | 12 | 45.6 |
Josh McRoberts | CHA | 7.5 | 6 | 45 |
DeJuan Blair | DAL | 5 | 9 | 45 |
Andre Miller | WAS | 4.6 | 9 | 41.4 |
Nick Calethes | MEM | 4.4 | 9 | 39.6 |
Tayshaun Prince | MEM | 4.3 | 9 | 38.7 |
Ed Davis | MEM | 4.2 | 9 | 37.8 |
Mike Miller | MEM | 4.2 | 9 | 37.8 |
Louis Williams | ATL | 6.3 | 6 | 37.8 |
Steve Blake | GSW | 4.08 | 9 | 36.72 |
Marreese Speights | GSW | 4 | 9 | 36 |
Beno Udrih | MEM | 3.9 | 9 | 35.1 |
Jon Leuer | MEM | 3.8 | 9 | 34.2 |
Shelvin Mack | ATL | 5.5 | 6 | 33 |
Elton Brand | ATL | 5.4 | 6 | 32.4 |
Mike Scott | ATL | 5.1 | 6 | 30.6 |
Gary Neal | CHA | 4.9 | 6 | 29.4 |
Pero Antic | ATL | 4.8 | 6 | 28.8 |
Cody Zeller | CHA | 4.8 | 6 | 28.8 |
Chris Douglas-Roberts | CHA | 4.2 | 6 | 25.2 |
Luke Ridnour | CHA | 4 | 6 | 24 |
Bismack Biyombo | CHA | 3.7 | 6 | 22.2 |
Keeping up with the Professor
If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210.