Well if your first foray into this article series was the Game 3 article, you likely aren't coming back to get more advice on Game 4. The Caps covered the spread, netting a nice +220 return, as well as earning the Moneyline -130. Unfortunately for Vegas fans out there, the Puck Line of Golden Knights -1.5 (+290) also didn't pan out, although neither did the Caps blowout (-2.5).
In the William Karlsson versus Nicklas Backstrom matchup, I did hedge a bit by saying the tie was likely the safe play but personally took the Washington center, which didn't play as neither guy found the scoresheet.
Speaking of coming up empty handed, clearly the oddsmakers knew what they were talking about, as David Perron was held without a shot for the second straight game and sixth time overall in the playoffs.
For the first time in this series, it was not a member of the field that potted the game-winning goal, but rather Evgeny Kuznetsov who stepped up with the second goal of the game.
Even RotoWire handicapping expert Chris Liss is batting 51.7 percent when it comes to making the right picks. You win some, you lose some. But for this author, it's time to move on to Game 4.
Game 4 Odds
Series prices have swung heavily in the favor of Washington at -235, which is understandable when you consider the Capitals are at home with an opportunity to take a 3-1 series led Monday
Well if your first foray into this article series was the Game 3 article, you likely aren't coming back to get more advice on Game 4. The Caps covered the spread, netting a nice +220 return, as well as earning the Moneyline -130. Unfortunately for Vegas fans out there, the Puck Line of Golden Knights -1.5 (+290) also didn't pan out, although neither did the Caps blowout (-2.5).
In the William Karlsson versus Nicklas Backstrom matchup, I did hedge a bit by saying the tie was likely the safe play but personally took the Washington center, which didn't play as neither guy found the scoresheet.
Speaking of coming up empty handed, clearly the oddsmakers knew what they were talking about, as David Perron was held without a shot for the second straight game and sixth time overall in the playoffs.
For the first time in this series, it was not a member of the field that potted the game-winning goal, but rather Evgeny Kuznetsov who stepped up with the second goal of the game.
Even RotoWire handicapping expert Chris Liss is batting 51.7 percent when it comes to making the right picks. You win some, you lose some. But for this author, it's time to move on to Game 4.
Game 4 Odds
Series prices have swung heavily in the favor of Washington at -235, which is understandable when you consider the Capitals are at home with an opportunity to take a 3-1 series led Monday night. There are times when the term 'must-win game' gets thrown about too causally, however, for the Golden Knights, the term seems appropriate.
Here is what we are looking at for Game 4:
| TEAMS | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL: 5.5 |
| Washington | -1.5 (+205) | -130 | Over (Even) |
| Vegas | +1.5 (-245) | +110 | Under (-120) |
The Moneyline is actually identical as it was for Game 3, which would indicate that while the Caps are favored, it's not by much. A return of $76.92 on a $100 bet is enough to warrant avoiding the risk of taking Washington to cover the spread.
Having said that, nine of Washington's 14 postseason victories have come by two or more goals – including Game 3, so it's certainly not a stretch to take them to cover, especially with improved odds of +220 compared to the Moneyline. Those odds are slightly tighter than they were Saturday, when you could get Washington +220 to cover and Vegas -260, but the movement is minimal overall. Once again, giving the Golden Knights the points doesn't exactly bring home the bacon with a $40.82 return on a $100 bet.
After back-to-back games in which the total came in at the under, the odds have moved to giving even money on the over. The fact is, teams don't make it to the Stanley Cup Final without solid goaltending. More likely than not, the 10-goal outing for Game 1 was an abnormality. If Game 4 does hit the over, it will likely be a total of six – and don't rule out an empty-netter to get there.
Puck Line
One of the most popular alternative bets in hockey is the Puck Line. Essentially it boils down to a spread bet in favor of the underdog.
Given the outcome of Game 3, the Puck Line numbers will be pretty in-line with what they were on Saturday. Vegas -1.5 come with +305 odds (up from +290), while the Washington blowout is going off at +330 (a slight dip rom +345). While I've mostly focused on the bets that come with positive odds, one certainly could take the low return options of Washington +1.5 (-450) or Vegas +2.5 (-500), but the return on investment is so low on both those bets it seems more risk than necessary for what has been a very close series.
Props
Who will record more points in the game?
Here is the matchup that I find the most intriguing for Wednesday's contest:
Evgeny Kuznetsov (WAS) +130
Reilly Smith (VGK) +160
Tie (+200)
Both players are currently sitting at one goal and two assists in the series, with each having logged a two-point game along the way. Additionally, you're looking at a pair of first-line talents who log time on the power play. What separated the two is the fact that excluding Game 2 when he was forced off due to injury after just 4:26 of ice time, the 26-year-old Kuznetsov is on a 12-game point streak, while Smith has been blanked in three of his previous six outings. The return is slightly lower at +130, and the tie +200 is certainly tempting, but I'll avoid hedging this time and say I'll be taking Kuznetsov in this head-to-head matchup. As always, one could double-down on the Russian to score a goal at +170 and triple up with him to get the game-winner at +1000. Total winnings on this stack (at $100 apiece) would come in at $1300.
[Insert Netminder] to record a shutout: +1000 (Yes)
No, that's not a typo. For Game 4, you can take either Marc-Andre Fleury or Braden Holtby to earn a shutout at +1000 (conversely, both at -4000 the other way). These two backstops have combined for 42.9 percent of postseason shutouts this year, but all of those were before the Stanley Cup Final – and in the Flower's case, his last shutout happened during the second round. Sure, it's probably a wasted bet more often than not – and one likely reserved for diehard fans – but, boy, doesn't it feel great when it pays off.
Player to score the game winning goal
Sure, the odds on picking which one of the 40 dressed players gets the game-winning goal won't be particularly favorable on any given night, but let's be honest, it's a fun bet to take a flyer on.
As per usual, there are 18 different players that you could pick from to score the game winner. Perhaps it will be more newsworthy when it isn't Alex Ovechkin as the favorite (+700). In a slight change, William Karlsson is actually the No. 2 option (+900), while Jonathan Marchessault has dropped to +1000. Colin Miller rounds out the longest odds at +2500 and the Field comes in at a consistent +350.
Monday's guest pick for the game-winning goal comes from RotoWire NHL Managing Editor Mike Gay, who's taking Marchessault.
As a final note, if you have questions about the article or have a specific bet you'd like explored ahead of Game 5, please post in the comments section or you can hit me up on Twitter @AJScholz24 .
