Handicapping the NHL: Stanley Cup Final Game 3

While the Capitals didn't quite reach the Puck Line (-1.5), they did cover the spread thereby netting just over $45 on a $100 bet. The moneyline would have been significantly more profitable on Washington with a $130 net. For the novice bettor, this example stresses the importance of considering the odds. If you were in on Washington winning, the moneyline turned out to be a significantly better choice.

I mentioned in the Game 2 article that taking the under was probably the safe bet, not only because of the marginally higher return, but also the quality of the two netminders. A last minute empty-net goal could have changed everything, but it didn't and I came out ahead on this one.

Speaking of coming out ahead, some people no doubt questioned my advice on taking James Neal to produce more points than T.J. Oshie, as the Knights' winger was coming off a three-game goal drought. However, if you put up $100 on both the more points and goalscorer bets, you walked away up $360. Even better if you took the long-shot, first-goalscorer-of-the-game bet at +1200.

Not only did Braden Holtby see more than 28.5 shots, it was significantly more, as he was peppered with 39 pucks – the most he has faced in the last 10 games.

Last, but not least, the game-winner was scored courtesy of Brooks Orpik, a guy with a mere 19 goals in 1128 games (including playoffs). Needless to say, he was a member of the Field group at +350.

Game 3 Odds

Unsurprisingly, after Washington got the road win, the series odds have flipped from the sizable lead for Vegas at -220 before Game 2 to the Capitals -125 heading into Game 3. Perhaps the most interesting fact here is that even with home ice in the next two games, the oddsmakers still only give the Capitals a marginal edge in the series, which makes sense when you consider only four of their 13 wins have come at home.

Here is what we are looking at for Game 3:

The Moneyline is pretty tight for Game 3, amounting to little more than a home-ice advantage for Washington at -130. While it seems likely that Evgeny Kuznetsov (upper body) will suit up Saturday, perhaps more certainty around his status would separate the odds a little more.

The total, as expected, continues to be set at 5.5, but what's interesting at this point is that the oddsmakers aren't giving you a real indication of which way they expect the game to go, with both the over and the under set at -110 for the return. Translated, you can bet either side, but you won't be getting a whole lot of return on the investment. To me, this seems all risk/no reward – and one bet I'll be skipping.

The line has flipped from Game 2 with Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals -1.5, but with the odds for that set at +220, they aren't expected to cover the spread. This team has struggled at home in the postseason, which is why Vegas at +1.5 is going off at -260, which will bring home a paltry $38.46 when you risk $100.

Puck Line

One of the most popular alternative bets in hockey is the Puck Line. Essentially it boils down to a spread bet in favor of the underdog.

This is where everything gets significantly more interesting for Game 3. In the previous two games, you could get Vegas -1.5 with a modest return of +195 and +180, but now, with the Knights considered the underdogs Saturday, we can take them to cover at +290 (nearly a 300 percent return on investment). It should also be noted that Vegas has won by two or more goals in 46 percent of their 13 postseason victories. Conversely, Washington in the blowout win (-2.5) nets odds of +345, but I've staked my flag in Vegas -1.5.

Props

Who will record more points in the game?

Here is the matchup that I find the most intriguing for Wednesday's contest:

Nicklas Backstrom (WAS): +150
William Karlsson (VGK): +150
Tie: +190

William Karlsson has notched at least one point in each of the first two games of this series and is coming off a career season in which he scored 43 goals and added 35 helpers – both higher than his career totals in those categories. He is also getting a first-line assignment alongside Jonathan Marchessault and his back-to-back 20-plus goal campaigns. But while Karlsson's resume is certainly impressive, Nicklas Backstrom has been on a mission this postseason with 19 points in 17 games, including three so far in the Final. While Backstrom may not be playing on Ovechkin's line, he has been logging over three and a half minutes per game on the top power-play unit during the playoffs. The tie might be the safe bet in this one, but I like Backstrom to continue to roll, especially if Kuznetsov doesn't dress. You can double-down with the center to score a goal in the game at +200 or really go all-in for the game-winning goal at +1200.

David Perron total shots on goal in the game: 0.5

This one jumped out at me given the somewhat bold suggestion that a guy with five straight campaigns in which he put over 100 shots on goal would be unable to contribute even one in Game 3. Over that five-season stretch, the winger has averaged 2.2 shots per game during the regular season. However, of his 13 playoff contests, the 30-year-old has registered a goose egg in the shot column five times, including Game 2.

Player to score the game-winning goal

Sure, the odds on picking which one of the 40 dressed players gets the game-winning goal won't be particularly favorable on any given night, but let's be honest, it's a fun bet to take a flyer on.

As always, there are 18 different players that you could pick from with Alex Ovechkin yet again the favorite (+700), Jonathan Marchessault a close second at +950, with David Perron and Colin Miller tied for the longest odds at +2200. The field remains a +350 bet, which would have been the winning option for both Game 1 (Tomas Nosek) and Game 2 (Brooks Orpik). For what it's worth, Mrs. Scholz likes the number 8, so she's picking Alex Tuch (No. 89) for +1400.