NFL Barometer: Homing in on Mahomes

Welcome to the first of two pre-training camp editions of the NFL Barometer, where I'll strive to project who's already headed in either a positive or negative direction. Naturally, there's plenty of unknowns at this time of year, but the combination of free agency, the draft, OTAs and mini-camps have all helped provide a glimpse into how certain players' fortunes shape up heading into the 2018 season.

Without further ado, let's delve further into the outlook for multiple players at each skill position as camps approach:

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Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Mahomes enters training camp as the clear-cut starter, a role he looked comfortable in during a Week 17 contest last season against the Broncos in which he threw for 284 yards. The second-year signal caller also flashed his two-way upside during preseason last summer, and he'll have the luxury of an above-average offensive line, as well as elite talent at the running back and tight end positions in Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce, respectively. Meanwhile, the receiving corps is stocked with top-shelf speed in the form of Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, and all of the Chiefs' backs behind Hunt are highly capable pass catchers as well.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings: Despite his teams' records ranging from average to poor, Cousins was a rousing fantasy success in Washington the last three seasons, compiling an 81:36 TD:INT and throwing for 13,176 yards over that span. He now lands on a top NFC contender that affords him a starting running back and pair of starting receivers a few notches above what he enjoyed in the nation's capital. Assuming he's back at full health, second-year back Dalvin Cook should help keep defenses honest, while Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs figure to help Cousins maintain or exceed his prolific pace of the last several seasons. And while Kyle Rudolph doesn't boast the pure athleticism of Cousins' former Redskins tight end Jordan Reed, the veteran is exponentially more durable and a formidable red-zone threat (22 touchdowns the last three seasons).

Running Back

Joe Mixon, Bengals: Mixon had reportedly lost 13 pounds by mid-April in an effort to get quicker, and he apparently is looking to drop five more by the time training camp begins. The 2017 second-rounder finished his rookie campaign leading Bengals backs in yards from scrimmage (913) and rushing yards (626), and he no longer has Jeremy Hill to compete with for early-down carries. Although Giovani Bernard figures to see his fair share of passing-down work, it's also worth noting Mixon logged 30 receptions (on 34 targets) last season, which could certainly afford him an uptick in snaps in the coming campaign.

Alvin Kamara, Saints: Kamara's arrow would be pointing in the right direction based solely on his rookie-season numbers, which included 14 total touchdowns. However, Mark Ingram's four-game PED suspension to open the season boosts Kamara's already formidable stock. While Saints coaches are on record as stating they ideally don't want to increase Kamara's workload too much in Ingram's absence, the dynamic second-year back could easily force their hand with his play. There also isn't much behind Kamara in terms of proven running back options, so a workhorse role over the first four games is certainly conceivable.

Saquon Barkley, Giants: Barkley's lead-back status heading into training camp is essentially unquestioned, as veteran Jonathan Stewart and second-year player Wayne Gallman don't come close to matching the first-round pick's physical talent or upside. Barkley's all-around skill set could easily afford him three-down status from the jump in his first season. Furthermore, his combination of size and speed makes him equally viable as a breakaway threat and goal-line option, the latter supported by the fact he tallied 36 rushing touchdowns over his last 27 college games. With an offense that boasts enough downfield threats in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram to keep defenses out of eight-man fronts, Barkley could be primed for an explosive NFL debut.

Wide Receiver

Allen Hurns, Cowboys: Hurns gets this designation almost by default, as he's seemingly the most dynamic pass-catching option outside of Ezekiel Elliott that Dak Prescott will have at his disposal in 2018. Incumbent No. 2 receiver Terrance Williams isn't likely to take his game to a new level in his sixth season, and an offseason foot injury and public intoxication charge both have the potential to derail the early portion of his 2018 campaign. Meanwhile, although injuries and Blake Bortles' play hindered Hurns over the last two seasons at different points, he flashed his upside with 16 receiving touchdowns over the 2014 and 2015 seasons, exceeding the 1,000-yard mark in the latter campaign.

Golden Tate, Lions: Although Tate may appear to have hit his ceiling after four straight 90-catch seasons in Detroit, there's actually room for some upward mobility this year, especially on the yardage front. Tate has managed to just clear the 1,000-yard mark in his last two seasons, and he missed it altogether in 2015. However, he posted a career-best 1,331 yards back in his 2014 debut campaign in Motown, which came on a career-high 144 targets. With the Lions having seen their top two tight ends depart this offseason, Tate could be primed for a workload that approximates the one he saw in that record-setting season, especially considering his proficiency in the short-to-intermediate passing attack.

Davante Adams, Packers: The combination of a healthy Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson's departure could spell big production for Adams, who already proved highly capable under much less favorable circumstances in 2017. The 2014 second-round pick managed to notch double-digit touchdowns for the second straight season while slightly improving his catch rate, and he'll enter 2018 as the Packers' clear-cut No. 1 receiving option. Offseason acquisition Jimmy Graham will undoubtedly see a robust share of targets as well, but with a prime role in the offense and Rodgers under center, Adams' prospects look bright irrespective of fantasy format.

Tight End

Trey Burton, Bears: Burton's profile increased last season in part due to the Eagles' remarkable Super Bowl run, yet this was no Desmond Howard-type signing by the Bears. The athletic tight end has never had a full season's worth of opportunity as a starter to put his considerable skills to use, but that's projected to change in 2018. New head coach Matt Nagy brings over his offensive scheme from Kansas City and has already anointed Burton as his new Travis Kelce, meaning he'll fill the "U" tight end role the latter thrived in. While the Bears have plenty of other mouths to feed in the form of Allen Robinson, Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen and rookie Anthony Miller, Burton has the speed to create plenty of mismatches down the seam and will have a play-extending quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky getting him the ball.

Jimmy Graham, Packers: Graham's three-year tenure in Seattle was a mixed bag, although he offered a tangible reminder of his play-making ability in 2017 with 10 receiving touchdowns. He'll now have a chance to work with Rodgers, who may be able to provide Graham with a similar level of opportunity downfield than that which he saw during his days in New Orleans. The former Hurricane still possesses the speed to create an abundance of mismatches down the seam, and with Rodgers now devoid of a former favorite target in Jordy Nelson, the opportunity for a resurgent all-around season seems to be there for Graham.

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Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: The future looked exceedingly bright for Prescott after his rookie season, but quite a bit has changed in the Cowboys passing attack since then. Gone are Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, and the team's half-hearted efforts to replace them appear highly questionable at best. While free-agent acquisition Hurns could certainly be serviceable and figures to see an abundance of targets, he's yet to serve as a true No. 1 receiver at the NFL level. Williams has likely reached his ceiling as a 50-55 catch contributor, and offseason addition Deonte Thompson is long on speed but short on production thus far in six NFL seasons. Meanwhile, the tight end depth chart might rival the Broncos and Ravens as the thinnest in the league. Elliott will help keep defenses honest to an extent, but it's hard to envision much success for Prescott given the personnel around him.

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Flacco is coming off a career-low 5.7 YPA in 2017, and he's been under the 7.0 mark in each of the last three seasons. With the Ravens having invested a first-round pick in the dynamic Lamar Jackson, conventional wisdom is that Flacco's days at the helm of the Baltimore offense are numbered. Moreover, the array of passing-game targets he'll have at his disposal if he opens the season as a starter are lackluster to put it mildly, with only Michael Crabtree offering the combination of durability and track record that provides any reason for optimism. Even if he manages to hold off Jackson during training camp and preseason, this appears to be a no-win situation for the strong-armed veteran.

Josh McCown, Jets: McCown may not be in that radically different of a situation than Flacco, even if his leash potentially extends a bit longer. Teddy Bridgewater and first-round pick Sam Darnold both slot behind him on the depth chart at present, but that may not be the case for long, perhaps even by the end of preseason. Bridgewater reportedly looks to be back to full mobility now that he's nearly two years removed from his devastating August 2016 knee injury, catching the eye of Jets coaches during OTAs this offseason. McCown was serviceable in the starting role last season, but at 39 years of age, his durability and effectiveness leave him best suited for a backup role.

Running Back

Rob Kelley, Redskins: This summer could well be the third-year back's swan song in Washington. Kelley surprised in 2016 with 704 rushing yards and six touchdowns over 15 games, but he managed just 3.1 yards per tote in 2017 on his way to just 194 yards. Kelley has struggled with both weight and health issues as well. With 2018 second-round pick Derrius Guice and 2017 fourth-rounder Samaje Perine both ahead of him in the competition for early-down work – and Chris Thompson having the third-down role firmly in hand -- Kelley would seemingly have to be downright spectacular to perhaps even hold onto a roster spot this summer.

Ameer Abdullah, Lions: Abdullah's future with the Lions looks murky despite logging a career-high 165 rushes last season. The 2015 second-round pick simply hasn't proven he brings anything to the table as a pass-catching back that isn't already provided by more accomplished teammate Theo Riddick, despite Abdullah's more impressive measurables. Moreover, the offseason additions of LeGarrette Blount and second-round pick Kerryon Johnson fill the team's lead-back needs, a role that Abdullah was utilized in at times last season without much success. Factor in a new head coach in Matt Patricia, who has no previous ties or attachments to him, and Abdullah could well be the odd man out by summer's end.

Wide Receiver

Kevin White, Bears: The Bears have already declined to pick up White's fifth-year team option for 2019, making this coming season a prove-it campaign for the 2015 seventh overall pick. However, that opportunity may not even come in Chicago, after the team restocked the receiver position this offseason with Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and 2018 second-round selection Anthony Miller. White's health has also been a constant issue, as he missed his rookie campaign altogether and then played in just eight games over the last two seasons.

Corey Coleman, Browns: Another former high draft pick whose fortunes may only be slightly better is Coleman, who's managed to bring in just 56 of 131 targets (42.7 percent) over his first two NFL seasons. While spotty quarterback play has certainly played a part in his inconsistency and lack of production, time may be running out for the 2016 first rounder. Moreover, the offseason acquisition of target monster Jarvis Landry does nothing for Coleman's prospects, nor does having a healthy and focused Josh Gordon as the No. 1 option on the depth chart. While Coleman would presumably still see a fair share of targets in a No. 3 role, that won't afford him the level of opportunity needed to vault him over the modest production he's generated in his first two seasons.

Adam Humphries, Buccaneers: Humphries has enjoyed a nifty three-season run as a productive slot receiver in the Bucs offense, but his role could be reduced in 2018. He'll see an uptick in competition for targets in the coming season, with his primary challenge most likely coming from second-year receiver Chris Godwin. The Penn State product has reportedly enjoyed an excellent offseason after flashing in multiple opportunities in 2017, and he's an outright threat to Humphries' No. 3 receiver role. Beyond Godwin, the list of pass-catching options for the Buccaneers includes Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, all of whom check in above Humphries in the air attack's pecking order as well.

Tight End

Tyler Eifert, Bengals: Eifert simply has trouble staying on the field, and that doesn't figure to get any better the older he gets. The 27-year-old is still limited by the back injury that ended his 2017 campaign, as he was only a partial participant in OTAs and didn't suit up for the team's minicamp in June. Eifert also saw health issues significantly curtail his 2014 and 2016 seasons, and his most recent absence allowed Tyler Kroft to emerge as a viable option. Kroft logged 42 receptions for 404 yards and seven touchdowns over 16 games in 2017. While he'll naturally have a role if he's healthy, Eifert's days as the unquestioned No. 1 tight end may have gone by the wayside with his latest health-related absence.

Charles Clay, Bills: Clay earns this designation largely due to circumstances beyond his control, as he's been nothing if not dependable during his three Bills seasons. However, matters look grim for the Buffalo offense heading into training camp, as there's considerable uncertainly at the quarterback position and on the offensive line. Clay may be asked to carry out more blocking duties in 2018, and when he does serve as a passing-game option, he may often be a short-yardage safety valve for a limited and/or inexperienced signal caller such as AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman or Josh Allen. Consequently, Clay may have trouble approximating the trademark 50-catch, 500-yard-level of production that he's made the norm in Buffalo.