This is the third and hopefully final entry in the series analyzing the fantasy fallout from this year's NFL free agency. We're mostly looking at long shots at this point, but enough unexpected things happen each year that we should do our due diligence all the same. The names this time are LeGarrette Blount, Jeremy Hill, Donte Moncrief + Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Taylor Gabriel.
Click here for the second edition, which addressed Jimmy Graham, Michael Crabtree, Jordy Nelson, Case Keenum, and Paul Richardson.
Click here for the first edition, which looked at Kirk Cousins, Sammy Watkins, Allen Robinson + Trey Burton, Jerick McKinnon, Carlos Hyde, and Tyrod Taylor.
LeGarrette Blount to Detroit
We all know Blount is one dimensional as a north-south power guy with limited pass-catching skills, but this is still an interesting fit to me. I consider Zach Zenner the best running back from the Detroit rosters over the last couple years, but the reality appears to be that he's unlikely to get much of a look at the NFL level. If Zenner isn't in the competition, I like Blount's chances of seeing meaningful usage, because Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are less than Blount as far as pure running skills go.
New coach Matt Patricia knows Blount well from New England, and Detroit had a clear need for a true runner since Abdullah is a draw back and Riddick is a miscast
This is the third and hopefully final entry in the series analyzing the fantasy fallout from this year's NFL free agency. We're mostly looking at long shots at this point, but enough unexpected things happen each year that we should do our due diligence all the same. The names this time are LeGarrette Blount, Jeremy Hill, Donte Moncrief + Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Taylor Gabriel.
Click here for the second edition, which addressed Jimmy Graham, Michael Crabtree, Jordy Nelson, Case Keenum, and Paul Richardson.
Click here for the first edition, which looked at Kirk Cousins, Sammy Watkins, Allen Robinson + Trey Burton, Jerick McKinnon, Carlos Hyde, and Tyrod Taylor.
LeGarrette Blount to Detroit
We all know Blount is one dimensional as a north-south power guy with limited pass-catching skills, but this is still an interesting fit to me. I consider Zach Zenner the best running back from the Detroit rosters over the last couple years, but the reality appears to be that he's unlikely to get much of a look at the NFL level. If Zenner isn't in the competition, I like Blount's chances of seeing meaningful usage, because Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are less than Blount as far as pure running skills go.
New coach Matt Patricia knows Blount well from New England, and Detroit had a clear need for a true runner since Abdullah is a draw back and Riddick is a miscast slot receiver. This appears to be an intentional fit with a specific idea in mind. It's not in the nature of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter to feature much running, let alone a pure bruiser like Blount, so this signing makes it appear to me as if Patricia plans to dictate some changes to the run game. He probably won't give you more than eight catches, if that, but Blount could hit double-digit touchdowns in an offense with no other viable power runners as well as a shortage of end-zone targets, Kenny Golladay aside. I just got him at pick 168 (15.10) in a 12-team best ball draft and, while I expect his price to rise a bit from now, I'll gladly take him in the 15th over the likes of Wayne Gallman and Frank Gore.
Jeremy Hill to New England
Hill is in a similar position to Blount, though the fact that Hill's deal contained just $150,000 guaranteed versus Blount's $2 million is illustrative of how much riskier Hill likely is. Hill should be on a roster this year, but it might not be in New England. It would be very surprising if Blount is not on the Detroit roster, by contrast.
But if Hill sticks to the Patriots roster – the only other notable runners under contract at the moment are Rex Burkhead, James White, Mike Gillislee, and Brandon Bolden. Gillislee turned out to not be very good, Bolden is just something of an ornament, and the duo of Burkhead and White offer little power. Hill will likely need to hold off rookie competition, but someone in New England needs to be able to push the pile between the tackles, and if Hill can establish himself as the top candidate for that role, then his career just might get back on track in Tom Brady's offense. The risk of a rookie kicking him off the roster is more than negligible, however.
Donte Moncrief and Austin Seferian-Jenkins to Jacksonville
Moncrief and Seferian-Jenkins arrive from Indianapolis and New York (Jets), respectively, and they'll be expected to step up right away with Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marcedes Lewis no longer around. They're former standout prospects and will both be just 25 at the season's start, meaning Jacksonville bought them at the point in time where both are likely to reach their highest levels of development. In each player's case, there is a great deal of pedigree and athleticism to work with.
Moncrief (6-foot-2, 216 pounds) has been a fantasy dud the last few years, but going back to his Mississippi days he's had several seasons of age-adjusted production implying high long-term upside. That he's been raw as an NFL player is beyond doubt, but even if by late blooming if necessary, he should turn into at least a safely top-60 wideout as soon as this year. He posted 1,917 yards and 16 touchdowns over his age 19 and 20 seasons at Mississippi, and when you throw in his 4.40 speed it appears a matter of when he develops into a solid starter rather than 'if.' With that said, Jacksonville probably isn't the best setting for proving himself. The presences of Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook, and Marqise Lee limit Moncrief's fantasy upside a great deal, and that's to say nothing of the Blake Bortles effect (it's not good).
Seferian-Jenkins was probably an even more highly-regarded prospect at his position than Moncrief was at receiver, as ASJ headed to Washington as a borderline five-star recruit at tight end. He was very productive at Washington despite some apparent character struggles off the field, and by all accounts he solved that part of his life puzzle prior to last year. His 4.8 YPT last year was hideous, but I'm willing to blame it on how the Jets used him. Seferian-Jenkins was very rarely used downfield, instead accumulating a heavy target volume while barely straying beyond the line of scrimmage. While the crowded wideout group in Jacksonville is a limiting factor in ASJ's target projection, at least he doesn't face as much competition at tight end as Moncrief does at receiver.
Taylor Gabriel to Chicago
Going back to his impressive 2014 rookie season in Cleveland, Gabriel has been one of those players who catches your eye almost every time the ball goes his way, but his prohibitively small build (5-foot-8, 165 pounds) makes it difficult to find him snaps in a conventional offense. Explosive as he is both as a downfield separation threat and an after-the-catch apparition, it's difficult to imagine him ever exceeding more than roughly 65 percent of the snaps in an offense.
With that said, I'll be keeping a close eye on Gabriel leading up to the season as a sort of last-pick candidate at wide receiver in best ball drafts. I'm expecting very few conventional practices from the Matt Nagy offense, in terms of not just tempo but also formational tendencies and playcalling, and a player as explosive as Gabriel will always catch my interest in such a setting. I think he'll line up all over the place and see a variety of usages – downfield on the outside, underneath routes from the slot, even jet sweep carries – and I expect him to provide explosiveness whenever called upon. So if he's called upon more than we expect, Gabriel could be surprisingly useful at a cost of basically zero.
The bad news is that the presence of Tarik Cohen means Gabriel's skill set is not unique in the Bears pass catcher rotation, which is deep generally in addition to the direct redundancy threat posted by Cohen. Besides Cohen, Gabriel will have to earn his targets while facing off against the formidable crew of Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, and Cameron Meredith (barring an exit as a restricted free agent). It would likely take unforeseen events for Gabriel to amount as more than a best ball dart or/and matchup-based bye week or injury fill-in for season-long leagues.
