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Fanball Fantasy Football: Week 14 Value Picks

Sasha Yodashkin

Sasha Yodashkin writes about fantasy sports for RotoWire.

All 32 NFL teams are in action Week 14 with New Orleans and Atlanta facing off Thursday night while New England travels to Miami for Monday Night Football. The Fanball format calls for a QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, FLEX WR/TE, FLEX RB/WR/TE, D/ST lineup with a $55,000 salary cap. The players below can fit into lineups regardless of strategy, as they all offer strong value relative to price.

QUARTERBACK

Matthew Stafford, DET at TB ($6,600):
This should obviously be disregarded if a bruised throwing hand prevents Stafford from suiting up, but he's in position to excel despite the injury if he plays. Detroit hasn't had a 100-yard rusher since Reggie Bush accomplished that feat on Thanksgiving 2013, so it's not like the Lions can lean on the running game to ease Stafford's workload. Tampa Bay's defense allows the second-most passing yards per game at 267.3, so Detroit's pass-heavy offense should put up gaudy aerial numbers even with a hampered Stafford under center.

Alex Smith, KC vs. OAK ($6,300):
Smith finally got back on track with a four-touchdown performance last week and will continue to be heavily relied upon against Oakland's 23rd-ranked pass defense with running back Kareem Hunt struggling mightily after a hot start. The veteran quarterback has a pair of elite receiving weapons in Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, plus he's an underrated scramble, averaging more than 30 rushing yards per game since Week 4. With Kansas City in desperate need of a win at home against an AFC West rival with the same record, expect Smith to step up again.

RUNNING BACK

Alfred Morris, DAL at NYG ($6,900):
Morris has ceded some work to Rod Smith, but it's clear which of the two has been the more effective option on the ground. The three-time 1,000-yard rusher averages a hefty 5.4 yards per carry behind Dallas' elite offensive line and should benefit from a run-heavy gameplan assuming his team gets ahead of the 2-10 Giants. Morris, unfortunately, doesn't contribute much as a receiver out of the backfield, but his rushing production alone should be more than enough to produce excellent value relative to price.

Lamar Miller, HOU vs. SF ($7,200):
Miller's established a high floor, topping 50 rushing yards in all but one game this season. He's also a capable receiver out, with at least three catches in seven of 12 appearances. This favorable matchup pushes Miller's ceiling upward as well, since the 49ers allow the fourth-most rushing yards (123.9) and eighth-most points (24.8) per game.

Jay Ajayi, PHI at LAR ($5,900):
Ajayi led Philadelphia's running back committee with 31 snaps last week and should continue to see his share of playing time rise. Between his breakaway speed, ability to catch the ball and history of handling a three-down role, Ajayi offers a skillset far superior to those of LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement. Philadelphia will have to ride its top personnel to notch a road win against the 9-3 Rams, and the man averaging 7.9 yards per carry in four games since coming over in a trade with the Dolphins is certainly capable of making a serious dent in a Rams defense that allows 122.8 rushing yards per game.

WIDE RECEIVER

Michael Crabtree, OAK at KC ($6,900):
With Amari Cooper (concussion) likely sidelined once again, Crabtree should get all the targets he can handle in his return from a one-game suspension. That volume should lead to nice production against a sliding Chiefs team that just allowed a combined 17 catches for 264 yards to the Jets' Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse last week.

Tyreek Hill, KC vs. OAK ($7,000):
Hill displayed his tantalizing upside in last week's loss to the Jets, breaking free for three gains of at least 40 yards en route to 185 yards and two touchdowns. His 20 catches the last three weeks demonstrate a concerted effort to put the ball in Hill's hands, and he already has a strong performance against this opponent with 125 receiving yards and a touchdown in Oakland in Week 7. Given how frequently Hill breaks free downfield, the upside is too high to pass up.

Jordy Nelson, GB at CLE ($5,900):
Nelson and Brett Hundley haven't been on the same page, but the allure of getting a player of Nelson's pedigree at just $5,900 against the pathetic Browns defense is too strong to pass up. With four seasons of more than 1,250 yards and three campaigns with at least 13 touchdowns, Nelson is simply too talented not to break out eventually, regardless of who's throwing him the ball. This matchup is as good an opportunity as any to have that breakout, since Cleveland allows 25.7 points per game and has had trouble covering No.1 wide receivers in particular.

TIGHT END

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ at DEN ($5,700):
Seferian-Jenkins has taken a backseat to Anderson and Kearse in the passing game the last few weeks, but the hulking tight end still gets plenty of red-zone usage. If not for two controversial overturns, Seferian-Jenkins would have five touchdowns this season, and he's in position to find paydirt once again. Between Denver's strong cornerback play and poor coverage at the linebacker and safety positions, opponents have featured tight ends heavily all season for 68.4 yards per game and eight touchdowns in 12 weeks for the position.

Dwayne Allen, NE at MIA ($4,200):
Rob Gronkowski appealed his suspension, but the NFL wasn't going to reverse its measly one-game ban for a hit to the head that was late, out of bounds and clearly thrown with the intent to injure a defenseless player lying on the ground. With Gronk sitting and Martellus Bennett (hamstring, shoulder) on injured reserve, Allen will start against a Dolphins defense that allows 24.8 points per game. Allen displayed serious red-zone proficiency as a member of the Colts with eight touchdowns in 2014 and six scores in 2016, so his chances of finding paydirt are remarkably high for a player at his price.

DEFENSE

Cincinnati Bengals vs. CHI ($3,600):
The Bengals are coming off a disappointing Monday Night Football loss to the AFC North rival Steelers and could be without linebacker Vontaze Burfict (concussion), but they still come with a high floor against a low-octane Bears offense. Even with a handful of defensive and special teams scores, Chicago ranks 30th with just 15.9 points per game this season. Cincinnati doesn't force many turnovers, but ranks fifth with 34.0 sacks and makes for a low-risk pick at home in a slate that features some tough matchups for many of the league's top defensive units.

Buffalo Bills vs. IND ($3,100):
While standout rookie defensive back Tre'Davious White (concussion) likely will be unavailable after Gronkowski's assassination attempt last week, Buffalo still has more than enough firepower on defense to contain a Colts team that ranks 28th with just 17.1 points per game. With freezing temperatures and a chance of snow in the forecast for Orchard Park, N.Y. on Sunday, the conditions are ripe for a defensively oriented football game. Buffalo's playmaking defense ranks sixth in interceptions (13) and is tied for second in fumbles forced (17), so the Bills are capable of much more than just allowing a low point total.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.