NFL Barometer: Blount Losing Ground

RISING

Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN

There probably aren't many unconverted on the Cook question at this point – the rookie runner's electric skill set continues to shine through in both practice and preseason action, while seeming top playing time threat Latavius Murray, while back in practice as of August 7, has yet to shake off the rust enough to make a preseason appearance. (Murray anticipates playing in Minnesota's next preseason game, but he anticipated playing in the one prior to that, too.)

Even beyond what otherwise increasingly appears like favorable playing circumstances for Cook, the part of his projection that is at least equally significant is his production background. We all know that Devonta Freeman is a fine NFL running back, and a top fantasy option due in no small part to his receiving prowess. Freeman caught 127 passes over the last two years, yet finished his Florida State career with just 47 receptions in 40 career games. Cook caught 79 passes in 38 career games. Cook clearly has 70-catch upside in the NFL which, when paired with his 4,464 yards (6.5 YPC) and 46 touchdowns on the ground, gives reason to think his fantasy skill set will prove among the very best at his position in the NFL, health permitting. (For what it's worth, Freeman ran for 'just' 2,255 yards (5.6 YPC) and 30 touchdowns at Florida State).

DeAngelo Henderson, RB, DEN

He appears more of a waiver wire option in standard-sized leagues than a pick-worthy player, but in deeper formats it feels like Henderson is pushing toward mainstream relevance. A sixth-round pick rookie out of Coastal Carolina, Henderson slots into a Denver backfield with a handful recognizable names – C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker, Jamaal Charles, and Stevan Ridley – but each of them is weighed down by significant questions, and Henderson might be good enough to get his foot in the door at some point not long from now.

He has 84 yards and a touchdown on 13 preseason carries, and three receptions for 21 yards. That explosiveness was on consistent display at Coastal Carolina, where he ran for 4,635 yards (6.4 YPC) and 58 touchdowns in 50 games, adding 97 receptions for 921 yards and six touchdowns. He checks the boxes for workout metrics, too, posting a 4.48-second Combine 40-yard dash at 5-foot-7, 208 pounds along with a 120-inch broad jump. Henderson's prospect profile is tarnished a bit by his age – his college production carries an asterisk since he played last year at nearly 24 years old – but I'd still say Henderson's prospect profile is better than that of Anderson, the presumed starter in this backfield.

Trevor Siemian, QB, DEN

You couldn't fault anyone for not caring, but Siemian won the starting quarterback competition in Denver, taking it at the expense of seeming bust 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch. Although Siemian likely won't typically be a fantasy factor outside of superflex and 2QB leagues, his place in the starting lineup at least establishes a floor for the Denver offense, and especially wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The quarterback variable was a significant concern for those two because of the uncertainty a starting lineup change would have risked, but at this point we can basically consider last year's production close to the worst-case scenario for the two vaunted Broncos receivers.

FALLING

Eric Ebron, TE, DET

He still projects as a strong fantasy tight end in the Detroit offense if healthy, but that condition is looking less certain with each day that Ebron misses practices with a hamstring injury that's kept him out all August. There's been no mention of his regular season availability facing any question, which we ought to have heard of by now if the ailment were anything more than a four-week pull, but a hobbled start and/or the risk of aggravation looms to some significant extent at this point. Owners (like myself) who habitually targeted Ebron in the ninth/tenth-round ranges of drafts need to reconsider our tight end preparedness.

Jamaal Charles, RB, DEN

I've been an advocate of Charles' in the later rounds of drafts this offseason, viewing him as a boom-or-bust option worth acquiring in ranges that otherwise tend to yield long shots and sub-replacement-level picks – but at this point I'm not optimistic about his chances in Denver. The team is basically giving him a one-game preseason audition to determine whether he gets a roster spot, and that sounds bad to me. I figure that if Charles looked physically functional in practices, the Broncos wouldn't base his roster eligibility on something so arbitrary and borderline superstitious as a one-game preseason sample.

It's possible that the Broncos coaches are merely going about this in the most nonsensical way possible, but that would likely be wishful thinking on the part of those with Charles shares. I still think he would be their best running back if he were healthy, but it's of course possible his athleticism has expired due to physical deterioration.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, PHI

Preseason stats and occurrences in general rarely merit any significant change in evaluation or approach, but Blount's poor preseason showing occurring in his particular context could be an exception. That he was at most a replacement-level talent was always clear enough, but the role he seemed destined for made him a good bet at least for usage, which is always our first concern with fantasy assets. Blount has looked as sluggish as his production this preseason, in which he's totaled 17 yards on nine carries, and the cheap, short-term nature of his contract means the Eagles have no substantial investment to consider if Blount otherwise isn't meeting their expectations.

With his already specialized role in any level of question, Blount's fantasy projection contains both a categorically limited ceiling and now a potentially lower floor than previously believed. Coach Doug Pederson has stood by Blount and declared him a "big part" of the Philadelphia offense, but it's reasonable to worry that his leash might not be long. Darren Sproles was already locked into a substantial role as an in-space specialist, and Wendell Smallwood is talented enough to otherwise steal snaps Blount's owners might have had in mind.

Mike Gillislee, RB, NE

There's still reason to regard him as the top fantasy asset among the Patriots running backs, but Gillislee is losing ground. That's due both to the increasingly clear fact that this team will feature constant rotation in its backfield, as well as a hamstring pull that kept him out for all of August before returning Tuesday. While it's great to see his return, his missed time is at least a slight concern as he heads into the season in a new offense.

Something like a 25/25/25/25 split between Gillislee, James White, Dion Lewis, and Rex Burkhead seems plausible for New England, but Gillislee generally won't pay off as a fantasy asset in that scenario. He'll need to strengthen his grip on his role in practice from this point to make up for lost time. There remains theoretical upside with Gillislee since he's clearly the worst pass catcher of that group – if he won't catch passes, why did New England otherwise want to sign him, if not for between-the-tackles running, especially at the goal line? – but his floor is lower than previously guessed, and week-to-week volatility figures to be fairly high.