Exploiting the Matchups: Ride Cousins to a Title

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Updated on December 23, 2015 8:01PM EST

Finally. For most of us who are still alive, it's championship time. That said, I'd like to send a shout out to Golden Tate and Brandin Cooks for miraculously saving me in my biggest money league. After Antonio Brown eviscerated me for 51.9 points in this PPR league in only a way that Antonio Brown can, I was down exactly 51.88 heading into Monday night. The glorious duo of Tate and Cooks proceeded to rack up 52.9 points in just shy of 60 minutes of game action to save me from the sorrow of an ended season and a lost bet that would have had me in a pink Eli Manning jersey this weekend. Perhaps now a Christmas miracle can help me survive another week facing a team loaded with Russell Wilson, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Rob Gronkowski and David Johnson.

Fortunately, it is now a one-week season. Anything can happen and despite the daunting opponent I'm optimistic. Maybe blindly so, but I have plenty of talent also and better matchups to boot. And better than that, I have peace. To me, the championship round is the least stressful of the year. You have arrived here. You played 15 weeks making every painstaking decision that, with some good fortune, has landed you the opportunity to be crowned league champ. The time is now here to enjoy the effort you put in all year and simply revel in the holiday season and the glory that is football.

With the games being must-wins my advice has not wavered for weeks now. Volume is the name of the game more so this year than ever given the absurd abundance of injuries, particularly to running backs. Talent is secondary, matchup third. Game situations are worth acknowledging, but shouldn't be a huge factor in a decision. Don't get too lost in anything beyond volume or you might wind up like me -- missing my second most important title shot because Lamar Miller found your starting lineup last week over several players with a clearer path to touches. Side note: there is a minimum of 15 running backs I'd rather roll with than Miller for my championship hopes.

So to recap, for Week 16, for your Super Bowl hopes and dreams, enjoy yuletide, choose volume, drink beer.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, WAS at PHI

The Eagles are one of only four teams that have allowed at least 30 passing scores, and they're also tied for the most rushing TDs given up to quarterbacks. Not incidentally, Cousins is tied for second among all QBs with five rushing scores, three of which have come in the last four games. Oh, and he threw for at least 300 in those same three outings as well.

Teddy Bridgewater, MIN vs. NYG

Throw out the hot recent numbers -- I mean, 566 yards, six total TDs and a 75-percent completion rate the last two weeks is nothing to scoff at -- but, more importantly, put faith in just how bad the Giants' 32nd-ranked pass defense is. And then tack on to that home-field advantage versus an offense that won't be able to stay on the field without their best weapon and a chance to clinch a playoff spot for the Vikes. For 2QB leagues, sign up Teddy.

Jameis Winston, TB vs. CHI

The Bears have allowed Blaine Gabbert, Kirk Cousins and Teddy Bridgewater to combine for nine total touchdowns in their last three games, with each producing one on the ground. Winston, who has 11 total scores the last five weeks, happens to be tied for second with Cousins for quarterback rushing touchdowns. Moreover, coach Lovie Smith and his crew will be uber-focused to stick it to his former team.

Matt Hasselbeck, IND vs. MIA

The Dolphins have allowed 12 passing scores in their last four games and that includes a meeting with a Matt Schaub-led debacle of a Ravens offense. If Matt Hasselbeck can walk, with his weapons, he can throw for more than 200 yards and two TDs.

Running Back

Denard Robinson, Jonas Gray or whoever starts, JAC at NO

Yes. That's right. WHOEVER is named the starting running back for the Jaguars this week you want in your lineup. BOTH Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell topped 70 rushing yards and found the end zone versus a weary Saints defense for a Detroit team that entered the game as the last-ranked rushing offense. That's how bad this New Orleans D is.

Christine Michael, SEA vs. STL

The Rams likely will not stay within two touchdowns of the football avalanche that has become the Seahawks. That spells plenty of work for Michael, who nearly doubled up Bryce Brown last week in carries and yards, while posting a healthy 5.3 yards per carry. Of course, it doesn't hurt that St. Louis has allowed 5.2 YPC to lead backs the last four weeks.

Alfred Morris, WAS at PHI

Morris has at least 84 total yards or a touchdown in three of his last four. In their last five games the Eagles have allowed two running backs to pulverize them for at least 187 yards on the ground. Even in a timeshare backfield Morris is poised to take advantage of a defense that's given up the third-most rushing yards to opposing tailbacks.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson, WAS at PHI

Jackson exploded last week for his first 100-yard game of the season. Facing his former team last year he posted two such outings in as many meetings, one of which was with Kirk Cousins under center. The Eagles defense has allowed the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers (22) and sixth-most yards (2,580) and Jackson happens to have scored in four of his last five games. This one feels like a no-brainer.

Kamar Aiken, BAL vs. PIT

The former special teams ace is quietly producing week in and week out as the de facto No. 1 receiver for an ugly Baltimore offense (at least five grabs in seven straight). Fresh off his first career 100-yard performance, Aiken will take advantage of a Steelers defense that's given up more yards to wideouts than any other (198.6 per game).

Allen Hurns, JAC at NO

Outside of an 80-yard snatch and dash to the end zone, Hurns has just 130 other yards and no other scores over the last four games. Of course, the best cure for that is facing a Saints embarrassment of a defense that's allowed 23 TDs to wideouts.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. NYG

The Giants have allowed the most catches and second-most yards to tight ends this season and Teddy Bridgewater is just starting to heat up with five passing scores the last two weeks. None have gone to Rudolph, but his towering tight end figures to be featured against a back seven that simply can't cover the tight end position.

Will Tye, NYG at MIN

The passes must go somewhere. Without Odell Beckham on the field Eli Manning will turn his attention elsewhere. Tye, who has scored in consecutive games and now has at least 56 yards or a touchdown in five straight, will be the big beneficiary of the Giants lacking their best offensive weapon.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Eli Manning, NYG at MIN

Even if the Vikings' defense is still racked by key injuries with Harrison Smith (hamstring) and Anthony Barr (groin) out, Manning doesn't stand a chance of putting up big numbers in an Odell Beckham-less offense. Aside from the fact that Beckham has personally accounted for nine TDs the last seven weeks, it can't be overstated how much attention he draws away from other weapons in a limited Giants offense.

Tom Brady, NE at NYJ

With a full assortment of weapons, Brady had little trouble carving up the Jets in their first meeting. Now it looks like he'll be without Julian Edelman (foot) and Danny Amendola (knee) versus a Darrelle Revis defense that is fighting for its playoff life. Rob Gronkowski and James White will not be enough for him to post his usual top-10 numbers.

Running Back

Todd Gurley, STL at SEA

Gurley's first experience with his division-rival Seahawks will not be pleasant. Sure, he's found the end zone three times in the last two games, and his ability at the goal line will always give him upside, but facing the stingiest defense to opposing running backs will not help him cure his efficiency woes (he's averaged 2.6 YPC or worse in three of five games).

Eddie Lacy, GB at AZ

Can't play him. Simply can't. Mike McCarthy is pulling his best impersonation of Bill Belichick, and sometimes even worse, early Redskins years Mike Shanahan. Lacy's usage is bizarre and erratic, and facing a Cardinals defense that's one of just four to have allowed fewer than 1,000 yards on the ground to opposing running backs just makes matters worse.

Matt Forte, CHI at TB

The longest run the Buccaneers have allowed all season is 21 yards. The 3.3 YPC they're giving up is second only to Denver. Forte is a premier talent who has proven matchup-proof, but the coach who drafted him, Lovie Smith, will know how to shut him down with his blazing fast linebacker corps.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Green, CIN at DEN

Everyone saw what Antonio Brown did to the vaunted Denver secondary. But Brown is a different breed than Green, and Brown snagged his ridiculous 16 catches from a future Hall of Famer. AJ McCarron is making his second career start and has a better shot at wetting his pants than sniffing the 380 yards Ben Roethlisberger threw against the Broncos, especially in a primetime matchup.

Brandin Cooks, NO vs. JAC

Drew Brees has a torn plantar fascia in his right foot. Chances of him suiting up when the Saints have nothing left to play for seem slim. That leaves either rookie Garrett Grayson or noodle-armed vet Matt Flynn responsible for getting the ball into Cooks' playmaking hands.

Ted Ginn, CAR at ATL

No way he does it again. Ginn has two touchdowns in three straight, and because he's primarily a deep threat, he has the yardage to go with it (285). One of those contests came against the same Falcons secondary he'll draw this week. He was lucky enough to catch them napping for two long scores (74 and 46), but those were his only catches of the game. But Atlanta happens to boast a defense that, even with Ginn's production, has still allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, and one that will be sure to not be burned a third time.

Tight End

Gary Barnidge, CLE at KC

Barnidge exploded out of nowhere this year. With two games to play he's sitting on 930 yards and nine touchdowns. Since Week 2 he's piled up at least 59 yards or a score in all but one of 12 games. Unfortunately, Barnidge is set up to notch his second stinker since September. The Chiefs boast the stingiest defense in the league versus tight ends, allowing the fewest yards in the league to the position (37.8 per game).