Exploiting the Matchups: Battle of the Birds

Pick on the extremely bad defenses; stay away from the extremely good defenses. Seek out volume. Play your superstars (hint: that's in italics because there are a very small number of them at every position; spoiler alert, I've downgraded only two). Beyond that, trust your gut. When it comes to surviving and advancing in the fantasy playoffs, I've learned that it's really that simple. Those are my guidelines. Sometimes they work and sometimes the guys you've grown to trust, the matchups that beg to be exploited and the stars that have carried you this far get into a fight, and lose, with the fantasy Gods.

But at last we're here. The playoffs should have officially arrived in every league, everywhere. We can exhale if we've made it this far. We can also live and die over every detail that goes into a decision – if we choose to, of course. The weather. The actual teams' motivations. The injuries. The actual players' motivations. The coaching decisions. The owners' motivations. The overreactions. Oh wait. That last one is what we too often do when living and dying by the minute details.

So don't let that be you. If you've made it this far this is the happiest time of the fantasy season (minus maybe those August drafts, which I'm obsessed with). This is when you should roll out your best possible options, accounting for the talent of your players, their team and the defense they're facing, and how much or little someone is seeing the football. I try very hard not to worry about anything else. None of us off the field can control anything on it. So I recommend setting that optimal lineup NOW, checking it again Saturday night to review any late-week injury, playing time or weather news, and then double-checking Sunday an hour before kickoffs. Once 1:00 p.m. EST hits and so many of those 60-minute game clocks are rolling, crack a beer and just soak in the football.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, DET at NO
For the holiday season the Detroit Lions and Mr. Stafford will be giving you the gift of garbage time. Nobody slows the Drew Brees machine in his building and especially not in primetime. When the Lions are badly behind Stafford will uncork his laser right arm plenty, and facing a defense that's sporting a preposterous 36:6 TD:INT ratio, the results will bring fantasy playoff victories.

Matt Ryan, ATL at JAC
In their last five games the Jaguars have allowed Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers and Marcus Mariota to throw for a combined 10 touchdowns in three games (Mariota played them twice), with each posting at least 268 yards and three scores. The best wide receiver this trio had the pleasure of throwing to is arguably Dorial Green-Beckham. Ryan's best friend in the world is Julio Jones.

Philip Rivers, SD vs. MIA
Sure, Rivers has been largely horrible of late, as the Chargers' offense has generated just three measly points in three of their last four games. He's failed to top 280 yards in four of his last five games and has just ONE touchdown to show from those four. His receiving corps looks like, well, an awful lot like the island-of-misfit-toys group playing over in Baltimore, where none other than Matt Schaub threw for over 300 yards versus this same dreadful Miami pass defense.

Running Back

Denard Robinson, JAC vs. ATL
No defense has allowed more than the 18 touchdowns the Falcons have given up to running backs. With T.J. Yeldon dealing with a knee sprain, Robinson now looks like the guy that gets to feast on them. For an explosive slasher like himself – who tallied 419 total yards and four TDs in a four-game peak stretch in 2014 – this is a window of opportunity he cannot miss.

Bilal Powell, NYJ at DAL
Powell has at least 82 total yards in three of four games and has 190 total yards and two scores over the last two. He's been exceptional as a receiver in this stretch, turning 20 grabs into 211 yards (10.6 per catch), and has been efficient rushing as well – 19 carries for 103 (5.4 per rush). Facing a Dallas defense that just let both Packers backs to top 100 total yards and combine for three TDs, Powell will stay hot.

Brandon Bolden, NE vs. TEN
Bolden saw 16 carries versus Houston when a hip injury forced LeGarrette Blount from the game. A trip to IR for Blount now positions Bolden to handle the bulk of the rushing duties for a New England offense that should put Tennessee to bed early. James White will steal the passing down work, but Bolden, will be the clock-chewing closer taking handoffs.

Theo Riddick, DET at NO
The Saints light up the scoreboard at home. Heck, they dropped 38 on Carolina their last time in the dome and Brees is even better in primetime. Translation: the Lions will be throwing a ton. Riddick led the team in targets last week and has at least five grabs in four straight. Facing a Saints defense that's allowed the most receiving TDs (five/tied) and second-most receiving yards (756) to tailbacks, Riddick is PPR gold.

Wide Receiver

Michael Floyd, AZ at PHI
A slow start to the season and modest overall numbers might have it going unnoticed just how tremendous Floyd has been lately. In the last six games in which he was not limited by injury, he's tallied six scores and four 100-yard efforts. Now he gets to abuse an Eagles secondary that's allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.

Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. CLE
With Russell Wilson playing out of his mind and the Seahawks run game scrambling for talent, expect the recent trend of Lockett as a playmaking receiver, and not just a return stud, to continue. Lockett has four scores in the last four games and consecutive outings with seven targets and at least 90 yards. A Cleveland defense giving up 8.1 yards per passing attempt is about to get burned again.

Markus Wheaton, PIT vs. DEN
When Seattle held Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant to a combined 120 yards, Wheaton went bananas for 201 and a score. And the Seahawks only have one lockdown corner. When Denver's star duo of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris make Roethlisberger look away from his stars, Wheaton will be there with wide-open arms.

Tight End

Richard Rodgers, GB at OAK
Having allowed the fifth-most yards (63.3 per game) and most touchdowns (11) to the tight end position, the Raiders are no match for a Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection that's been heating up lately. The Packers' tight end is second on the team in targets and catches and tied for first in TDs, the latter of which he's snagged five of in the last six games.

Vernon Davis, DEN at PIT
In four Brock Osweiler starts Davis has produced at least six catches and 68 yards twice. With C.J. Anderson nursing an ankle injury and an explosive Pittsburgh offense dreaming of a division title, the game could be a pass-happy one for the second consecutive week for Denver. In that event, Davis will cash in against a Steelers D that's allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. DEN
Roethlisberger is an extremely tough guy to sit given the wealth of talent surrounding him, especially Brown and Bryant. But the Broncos boast the best pair of corners in the league in Talib and Harris and have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing passers for a reason. Moreover, it's not unlike Big Ben to struggle versus tough defenses. In four games versus Cincinnati, St. Louis and Seattle (all in the top-10 versus QBs), Roethlisberger totaled just two touchdowns and six interceptions.

Eli Manning, NYG vs. CAR
In his last six games Manning has averaged 313.2 yards and thrown 17 touchdowns. In that span some guy named Odell Beckham has accounted for 42.4 percent of that yardage and eight of those scores. With Josh Norman glued to Beckham (as much as any corner could be) and the rest of a stacked Panthers defense limiting his remaining options, Manning is set up for failure.

Running Back

Darren McFadden, DAL vs. NYJ
In New York's three-game win streak no tailback has more than 50 scrimmage yards (though Antonio Andrews did throw a TD). McFadden is coming off his most efficient 100-yard effort of the season (12.3 YPC), but has not had better than 15 touches since before Thanksgiving and was almost matched carry-for-carry last week by Robert Turbin, who also stole a score from inside the five.

Javorius Allen, BAL vs. KC
Allen has been a beast of a receiver out of the backfield with 228 yards and two scores on 26 catches over the last four weeks. It's a shame for him the Chiefs have given up the least receiving yards to opposing tailbacks this season (28.9 per game).

Charcandrick West, KC at BAL
For a three-game stretch West played like a top-10 running back. But a minor injury opened the door and now Spencer Ware has demanded a timeshare in KC by barreling for 288 yards at 6.4 YPC and four touchdowns over the last four games. And now West has to travel to a Ravens D that's allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tailbacks.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, PIT vs. DEN
You're never going to bench Brown when Roethlisberger is under center. After all, he's seen 70 targets and piled up a fantastic 679 yards in the last five games with his star QB. But smack dab in the middle of that stretch was a 51-yard outing when Richard Sherman locked him up in Seattle. Both Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are on par with or better than the Seahawks' cover man – which also means Bryant is staring at an uphill battle. Adjust expectations accordingly.

Allen Robinson, JAC vs. ATL
The Falcons' secondary didn't respect Ted Ginn last week and was badly burned twice for long scores. There's no chance that they don't give Robinson the love he deserves given the breakout campaign he's been authoring. Coming off a season-low for targets (four) and catches (one), the second-year star is set up to struggle again versus the league's most underrated secondary, one that's given up the third-fewest yards and scores to the receiver position.

Mike Evans, TB at STL
Only the Broncos have allowed fewer yards to wide receivers than the Rams. Some of that is the result of game flow, as teams haven't needed to throw on St. Louis as much given their 31st-ranked scoring offense. Regardless, Evans is difficult to trust in an offense that's thrown it more than 36 times only twice all year, especially when he's catching just under 50 percent of his targets and hasn't produced better than 64 yards when he's had fewer than 12 looks.

Tight End

Travis Kelce, KC at BAL
Two touchdowns. The Ravens' defense has consistently been among the stingiest to tight ends, with only one defense having allowed fewer scores to the position. That's no bueno for Kelce, who's topped 50 yards just once in the last six games.