Exploiting the Matchups: Ted Talks in Minnesota

It's always fun, in life and in fantasy, to get surprised by how little you really knew about what you thought you knew. Four short weeks ago the fantasy-playing world and football-watching fans everywhere knew next to nothing of the game-breaking abilities of players like Stefon Diggs and Charcandrick West. The door had to open first.

A few short weeks ago you knew they were nobodies. And a few short weeks ago there were plenty of prominent names you knew weren't going to be what you thought they were in August -- hello, Lamar Miller and Mike Evans. In fantasy, just as in life, sometimes all you need is for that door to crack a bit. Miller and Evans have blown the door off the hinges lately just because they were given an opening to showcase their talent. The young, former no-names have similarly burst through the proverbial door when given the chance. Sometimes what you have to know is just to have a little faith. Sometimes that faith needs to be drawn from a tiny sample, other times from a history of performance.

This is exactly why you shouldn't give up on commodities you really should know, names like Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, and Davante Adams. All have been slowed by injuries, but coming off their bye weeks they should be as close to healthy as they'll be the rest of the way. That means big production could very well be in their near future. Each will battle depth chart foes but the fact is they're superior talents to those currently getting the job done, and last year proved that. If we try hard to consider what we didn't know a few short weeks ago, it's not difficult to realize the significant impact their injuries had. The rest they have gotten due to decreased workloads or time off should set them up to exceed what we think we know now, just in time for when we need them the most. Translation: it's a good time to buy low. None is particularly useful this week as they are all set to play in what could be one of the more unique and intriguing defensive struggles in recent memory, but they're all worthwhile investments nonetheless.

Few will claim to know a guy like West or Diggs before he arrives, because it takes an injury to get their doors open, particularly in West's case when a superstar had to go down. That's not the case, though, with underperformers like the trio you may want to buy on the cheap. So don't forget. Sometimes, in fantasy and in life, what you think you knew actually is what you think you knew. Confusing right? I agree. That's why you should always look at the steps that got you to the here and now. Backtrack and question along the way; you can thus draw logical conclusions and find that what you think you know now may not be exactly so, and the reality you knew for players like Lacy and Anderson in summer is still true today, even if it took us awhile to get here. Then trust your intuition and make your move. In fantasy, as in life, that's all you really can do.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays with a bad opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

Quarterback

Eli Manning, NYG at NO

After four consecutive games with at least 200 yards and multiple scores, Manning has really stunk it up the last couple weeks. It's no coincidence with Odell Beckham fighting hamstring injuries, but after less than 200 yards in consecutive weeks with just one TD, Peyton's little bro gets a reprieve. The Saints have let every quarterback they've faced not named Jameis Winston or Brandon Weeden to go for at least 295 yards and two touchdowns (and even Winston ran one in to total two).

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TB

An under-the-radar storyline this season is the struggles of Ryan for an Atlanta team that is 6-1. He's topped 300 yards just once and has one or no touchdown passes in four of seven games. The Buccaneers will provide a breather, however, for his owners. They just let Kirk Cousins look like John Elway while shredding them in the second half of a game in which he overcame a 24-point deficit and totaled four TDs.

Teddy Bridgewater, MIN at CHI

Aided by the sudden emergence of the aforementioned Diggs, Bridgewater is finally displaying the promise with which he finished 2014, registering at least 249 passing yards and a score in three consecutive. Now he faces possibly his softest matchup of the season in a Bears defense sporting a 15:3 TD:INT ratio. Moreover, that same Chicago D is only one game removed from letting Matthew Stafford decimate it for more than 400 yards and four TDs (yes, the same quarterback who was benched one week prior and has no other games of more than 300 yards this year).

Running Back

Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. IND

After a slow start that saw Stewart fail to rush for more than 62 yards in any of the first four games, he's rumbled for 203 yards and two scores the last two weeks against the sturdy front sevens of Seattle and Philadelphia. The Colts, by contrast, are like running through a mild pillow fight. They've allowed opposing No. 1 backs to trample them for 236 yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks at a whopping 7.9 yards per carry.

Charcandrick West, KC vs. DET (in London)

The Steelers were the last team in the NFL to allow a touchdown to a running back, and the explosive West claimed that in a 110-yard effort. The now clear feature runner for Kansas City, West should enjoy an encore versus a Lions defense that's allowed five tailbacks to tally at least 100 total yards or find the end zone in their last three games.

Charles Sims, TB at ATL

Sims has at least 66 total yards or a touchdown in four straight games, including 173 yards through the air over that span. Although he's firmly behind Doug Martin in the backfield pecking order, he's flex worthy against an Atlanta defense that's given up the most touchdowns (11) AND receiving yards (66.6 per game) to the position.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs, MIN at CHI

Ride the wave. Diggs is scorching hot and will stay that way against a Chicago defense that's allowed the second most scores to wide receivers this year.

Rishard Matthews, MIA at NE

Matthews has just one game this season with less than 8.5 fantasy points (standard scoring), and his surprisingly strong play will continue against a Patriots defense that's surrendered 458 yards and four touchdowns to wide receivers in its last two games, especially if Miami gets behind to the NFL's top scoring team.

Golden Tate, DET at KC (in London)

Tate stunk last week. But he should be able to quickly put his worst game as a Lion behind him. He was trending up with at least 80 total yards or a touchdown in his two previous and should rebound nicely against the most fantasy-friendly defense to opposing wide receivers. No team has allowed more yards or touchdowns to the position than the Chiefs.

Tight End

Jason Witten, DAL vs. SEA

Sure, it bodes well that Witten was the favorite target of Matt Cassel in the QB's first Dallas start (six grabs on eight targets for 73 yards). But all you really need to know here is how bad Seattle is against tight ends. The case in point was made last week when Vernon Davis, of all people, in his first full game back from a knee injury, accounted for 61 of Colin Kaepernick's atrocious 124 yards passing.

Ben Watson, NO vs. NYG

In all but one game this season the Giants have allowed at least 73 yards or a touchdown to an opposing tight end. Watson, who has at least 59 yards or a score in three straight, should stay one of Drew Brees' best friends this week.

DOWNGRADE:

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, GB at DEN

Rodgers, the reigning league MVP, is finding out what it's like to lack weapons. And while his otherworldly talent is maximizing what Green Bay does have, it's hurting his once palatial ceiling. He's only topped 255 yards in one game this season and has just five passing scores in his last three games after piling up 10 in the first three. Factor in a Denver defense allowing the fewest yards per game through the air (192.2) and lowest TD:INT ratio (5:9), and you have the recipe for disappointed owners.

Andrew Luck, IND at CAR

Only the Broncos and their vaunted secondary boast a TD:INT ratio equal to that of the Panthers' 5:9 mark. That spells trouble for Luck, who is simply not himself this season. He's tossed at least two picks in four of five games, and while he's managed to produce by volume the last two weeks, even the extra opportunities may not cut it against an elite Carolina defense.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. NYJ

In his five full games Carr is averaging 279.8 yards and 2.2 touchdowns. Those are definitely start-worthy numbers in fantasy. His numbers won't be this week, however, facing a Jets defense that prior to getting sliced and diced by Tom Brady had allowed just 198.6 passing yards per game.

Running Back

Latavius Murray, OAK vs. NYJ

This should require no explanation. NO ONE has run on the Jets and their top-ranked rush defense. They're allowing 71.5 yards per game on the ground, and Murray, while gifted, is not about to buck the trend.

Eddie Lacy, GB at DEN

Another that should requires little explanation. Lacy barely touched the football in Green Bay's Week 6 win over San Diego, as James Starks went off for more than 100 yards on the ground and two total touchdowns. Sure, the bye week allowed Lacy to fully rest an ankle sprain that dates to Week 2, but that still changes nothing about facing off against a Denver defense ranked fourth versus the run.

Darren McFadden, DAL vs. SEA

Not so fast, proud "Run DMC" owners. Although McFadden flashed vintage 2011 wheels while serving as Dallas' bellcow last week, his encore could still be a game away. The Seattle defense has given up the second fewest points per game to opposing running backs, and Matt Cassel isn't about to suddenly uncrowd the box.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper, OAK vs. NYJ

The most obvious receiver name to reconsider every week is the man that will line up opposite Darrelle Revis. While Cooper has passed nearly every test he's faced this season, he's not ready to pass this one.

James Jones, GB at DEN

A touchdown machine through six games this year, Jones has been Rodgers' most dependable receiver, finding the end zone in five of six games while registering at least 8.9 fantasy points every week (standard scoring). That hot start could come to a screaming halt, however, against a Denver defense that's allowed just one score to a wide receiver all season.

T.Y. Hilton, IND at CAR

In six games, emerging superstar corner Josh Norman has shut down opposing No. 1 wide receivers almost entirely, holding them to a combined 228 receiving yards. This includes the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson and Mike Evans, who totaled just 117 of those yards.

Tight End

Gary Barnidge, CLE vs. AZ

If Barnidge is going to have a bad game the rest of the year, this is probably the week it happens. Josh McCown is dealing with a hurt shoulder and Johnny Manziel is, well, Johnny Manziel. Oh, and there's this little issue of the Cardinals' rabid secondary holding tight ends to the fewest fantasy points all season -- just 36.4 yards per game and no TDs.