This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
Every year it happens. Every year the landscape of the NFL shifts from week to week, sometimes minor details, sometimes team-altering. Breakthroughs, fall-offs and injuries generally tell a team's story, both real life and fantasy. So it's adjustment time. Time to throw out what you knew six short weeks ago and take what you "know" now and plow ahead.
Jamaal Charles is done. His replacements are uncertain, but what appears certain is that Devonta Freeman may be the next big thing in a similar mold to Charles -- a back who can kill you as a runner or receiver. His total yards and touchdowns since taking over the starting gig are eye opening, as is the way he and the entire Falcons offense are doing it. This sounds crazy, but the landscape as it stands dictates that a trade of Eddie Lacy to get Freeman could be a good move (though one the Freeman owner may not bite on). So too might a deal swapping Lacy for Todd Gurley, who looks every bit the part of a future All-Pro. Moves such as these shape fantasy seasons. The emergence of these two young backs will absolutely shape the fortunes of their teams.
In the thick of things by Week 6 there are an increasing number of factors that have to play into fantasy decisions -- injuries are mounting, defensive trends are more defined, opportunities are becoming more apparent. Take the New Orleans Saints, for example. Who the heck saw Willie
Every year it happens. Every year the landscape of the NFL shifts from week to week, sometimes minor details, sometimes team-altering. Breakthroughs, fall-offs and injuries generally tell a team's story, both real life and fantasy. So it's adjustment time. Time to throw out what you knew six short weeks ago and take what you "know" now and plow ahead.
Jamaal Charles is done. His replacements are uncertain, but what appears certain is that Devonta Freeman may be the next big thing in a similar mold to Charles -- a back who can kill you as a runner or receiver. His total yards and touchdowns since taking over the starting gig are eye opening, as is the way he and the entire Falcons offense are doing it. This sounds crazy, but the landscape as it stands dictates that a trade of Eddie Lacy to get Freeman could be a good move (though one the Freeman owner may not bite on). So too might a deal swapping Lacy for Todd Gurley, who looks every bit the part of a future All-Pro. Moves such as these shape fantasy seasons. The emergence of these two young backs will absolutely shape the fortunes of their teams.
In the thick of things by Week 6 there are an increasing number of factors that have to play into fantasy decisions -- injuries are mounting, defensive trends are more defined, opportunities are becoming more apparent. Take the New Orleans Saints, for example. Who the heck saw Willie Snead, an undrafted receiver out of Ball State, as the No. 1 weapon for Drew Brees? Nearly everyone, myself included, was bullish on Brandin Cooks this summer as a major breakout candidate. Cooks is coming off his best game and may still have fine production, but I see no way now Snead doesn't lead the Saints in receiving. Seismic shift right there. If I can swap the two I'm all over it. And while we're on the subject of trades, if I could sell Demaryius Thomas for a DeAndre Hopkins or even an Allen Robinson I'd be freaking break dancing. That Broncos offense is going down the tubes and some pretty pricey draft picks are going with it. Maybe there's still something to the name value that can earn a player clearly on the rise.
Your record at this point and your depth should tell you if moves such as these need to be made. This is a good time of the year to re-examine everyone's roster and regardless of whether you're sitting at 5-0 or 0-5 you should see if there's a value you can squeeze out of a hurting team. Trading should be just like the safari. Lions know to go after the weak ones and so should you. Speaking of Lions, it's a good time to poach Calvin Johnson on the cheap. His best days are ahead.
Getting beyond wheeling and dealing, we're into heavy bye week time, and since I haven't addressed it yet this year, I'll just quickly say that whenever possible on bye weeks try to pay less attention to the defensive matchups of your opponents and concern yourself more with opportunities. With Doug Martin and Latavius Murray out this week you just want a tailback touching the football. Hello, Theo Riddick and Shane Vereen, pass-catching wonder boys. So for all those fill-ins think targets, carries, touches first and foremost.
As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays with a bad opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.
UPGRADE:
Quarterback
Peyton Manning, DEN at CLE
That's right, it's safe to use Manning for at least one more week. His wildly erratic accuracy has been a huge headache for owners of the legend this season, but they and he get a reprieve this Sunday with a Cleveland defense whose 10:1 TD:INT ratio is the friendliest in the league. Moreover, the Browns' last-ranked run defense should finally get the Broncos going on the ground, further opening things up for Manning.
Colin Kaepernick, SF vs. BAL
It's awfully hard to speak the words "Colin Kaepernick is an option," but that's legitimately how bad the Ravens pass defense has been. In their last three losses they've allowed a preposterous 1,191 yards through the air and 11 total touchdowns to opposing QBs. Kaepernick won't come near to matching the damage those three signal callers did, but the only other two weak secondaries he's faced each allowed him to toss it for at least 262 yards and two scores.
Jay Cutler, CHI at DET
The Lions allow a crazy 116.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Their 9.2 yards per attempt is the most generous in the league, as is the 76.6 percent completion rate against their soft coverage. Cutler, meanwhile, has been quietly effective in Adam Gase's offense the last two weeks with at least 252 yards and two scores in each game. Imagine what he can do once Alshon Jeffery returns?
Running Back
Eddie Lacy, GB vs. SD
It's easy to forget after just 224 total yards and no touchdowns in his last four games that Lacy was the top overall pick in many leagues. So this is just in case you forgot he's a stud, were thinking of trading him (unless you can get Freeman as suggested), or are just generally going crazy over his production (or lack thereof) so far. The WORST performance an opponent's top back has had against San Diego this season is 139 total yards, and the 5.1 yards per carry the Chargers give up is last in the league.
Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson, DEN at CLE
The Browns have allowed an opposing running back to total at least 124 yards or find the end zone in every game this season. The beleaguered Broncos run game gets a major reprieve this week against the league's worst rushing defense (149.4 yards allowed per game), and both Hillman and the highly disappointing Anderson could be major beneficiaries.
C.J. Spiller, NO vs. ATL
The Falcons have allowed the most receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. It would be a major dart to roll with Spiller after just two total yards last week on six touches, but on the short week, in the dome, against a defense susceptible to receiving backs, Spiller could be the perfect bye-week fill in. After all he's just a week removed from an 80-yard receiving score on this same turf.
Wide Receiver
Mike Wallace, MIN vs. KC
Wallace produced the best game yet against the No. 1 fantasy defense against wide receivers when he posted 83 yards and a touchdown versus Denver prior to the bye. Now he faces the friendliest defense to opposing wideouts, a Chiefs group that's allowed a league-high 11 touchdowns to the position.
Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, SF vs. BAL
Boldin is coming off his best game of the season and his fourth as a Niner with more than 100 yards and a score. Both he and Smith face the team they won a Super Bowl with but from which they were cast off. Revenge factor plus the fact that Baltimore has allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts -- including eight such receivers hitting at least 60 yards -- give them the upside to use as bye-week replacements.
Eric Decker, NYJ vs. WAS
Of the six touchdowns the Redskins have allowed to wide receivers, five have gone to secondary targets. And it just so happens that opposite Brandon Marshall, the No. 2 for Gang Green has found the end zone in every game he's played.
Tight End
Jacob Tamme, ATL at NO
Outside of a Week 2 game in which Austin Seferian-Jenkins left injured in the second quarter (with 29 yards already), the Saints have given up at least 64 yards to the tight end position in every game, and their 436 allowed to the position is tops in the league. Tamme had been relatively quiet prior to churning out 94 yards on eight grabs last week, but with Julio Jones (hamstring) and Leonard Hankerson (ribs) banged up and Roddy White (old) fading away, an encore looks likely.
Zach Ertz, PHI vs. NYG
Ertz has yet to live up to his potential this season, but he's coming off his best game yet (five catches, 60 yards) and gets the pleasure of facing a confused and abused Giants secondary that's allowed at least 77 yards or a touchdown to an opposing No. 1 tight end in every game.
DOWNGRADE:
Quarterback
Josh McCown, CLE vs. DEN
This is where the ride ends (or at least stalls). While McCown is not typically a name you need to hear "downgraded" to reconsider starting him, the remarkable renaissance he's enjoyed these last three weeks (1,154 passing yards and seven total touchdowns!!!) has thrown him into a fantasy stratosphere unmatched by any quarterback in that stretch. Unfortunately, Denver is in town now. If you've watched football this year, that requires no further explanation.
Philip Rivers, SD at GB
Rivers may lead the league in passing yards, but he's yet to face a defense with Green Bay's playmakers. The Packers allow the second-lowest rating to opposing QBs (62.8) and the second-fewest yards (186 per game) and are second in both sacks (20) and picks (8). Woof. Rivers will do some damage by sheer volume, but it could be a long day in cheese country for the Chargers' gunslinger.
Running Back
Chris Johnson, AZ at PIT
Johnson has produced no less than 72 yards from scrimmage in four starts since taking over for Andre Ellington. While he is expected to remain the featured tailback, a matchup with one of the three defenses that's yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing running back does not look promising.
Matt Jones, Alfred Morris, WAS at NYJ
Both Jones and Morris have had their moments this season. Unfortunately, neither has really shared moments in a single week, as the two have made it impossible to predict from one week to the next who the better option is in a crowded Washington backfield. Now they're each stuck facing a Jets defense that allows a league-low 90 total yards per week to the position, and one that's just returned the services of former Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson to an already terrific defensive line.
Frank Gore, IND vs. NE
Gore has hit at least 87 total yards in each of the last three weeks and scored three touchdowns over that span. Unfortunately, the Colts are now up against an unstoppable Patriots offense. Facing a team that's averaged 40.3 points per game over their last three, the aging Gore may take a backseat to a very active passing game, particularly if Andrew Luck returns from his shoulder injury.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown, PIT vs. AZ
Brown is not a starting fantasy receiver as long as Michael Vick is under center. After blazing his way to 436 yards in the first three weeks, an inability to connect with an inaccurate Vick has resulted in 87 yards in two weeks. Now a stingy Arizona defense is coming to town to see to it Brown's struggles continue.
Keenan Allen, SD at GB
Antonio Gates is now the red-zone option of choice for Mr. Rivers, so Allen's touchdown potential is already limited. Factoring in a Packers secondary that's allowed just one receiver to top 100 yards is just pouring salt in the wound for Allen owners.
Travis Benjamin, CLE vs. DEN
With at least 79 yards or a touchdown in all five games this year, including five total TDs, Benjamin has surprisingly become a weekly starting option. Until now. With Aqib Talib and Chris Harris coming to town for an elite Denver defense, trusting a Browns wide receiver that has already surpassed all his single-season highs through just five games crosses the line from gutsy to crazy.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham, SEA vs. CAR
The Panthers have faced arguably the most pathetic slate of tight ends of any team this year over their four games. Nevertheless, it warrants attention that they've limited the position to just 86 yards and one touchdown over 16 quarters. And beyond that, the Seahawks use of Jimmy Graham (5.4 targets per game) and the return of Luke Kuechly makes the former All-Pro very unappetizing this week.
