Exploiting the Matchups: The Return of Morris?

Last week I lamented old "has-beens" like Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith outperforming all the young wideouts I stockpiled this year, rambling on various tangents centered around the state of wide receivers, how to gauge trade value and the disappointment of my favorite home team. I also promised to focus more on running backs this week.

So let's kick things off with a big "thank you" for Mr. Jeremy Hill, the one rusher I did knock in last week's intro. Still far too tentative, still without the burst he displayed as a rookie (I mean his longest carry this season is 11 freakin' yards), but now with a trio of touchdowns he didn't have when I briefly blasted him a week ago. The thunder to Giovani Bernard's lightning is still averaging a pitiful 2.2 less yards per carry than his dynamic counterpart, but he's at least putting his size to good use at the goal line (spoiler alert: that's still not good enough to trust Mr. Hill!).

Speaking of the three-score game Hill delivered in a week I very nearly did the dumb thing and benched him for Thomas Rawls (who incidentally had exactly twice as many touches as Hill), these types of explosions are wildly unpredictable and typically pretty rare. In 2014, a running back had at least three touchdowns in nine games. So far through four weeks of 2015 we've already witnessed seven such performances, with two belonging to the dynamo that is Devonta Freeman. The saving grace in my favorite keeper league, I'm not sure there are more than five running backs I'd trade Freeman for straight up. And, of course, none of those could be had despite Freeman's seven rushing scores in three weeks and pile of total yards. But back to the point, scoring outbursts like we've seen so far are typically fewer and farther between. Is the pace for running backs indicative of offenses trusting their quarterbacks less in the red zone? Is it better run blocking? Is it injury related (surely Joseph Randle wouldn't have gotten his three-TD day with end zone monster Dez Bryant lined up out wide)? It's inexplicable but a pace that fantasy traditionalists would no doubt love to continue.

Personally, I like to give less weight to goal-line superstars and place more value on yardage machines. It's always served me well in fantasy to opt for that higher degree of consistency, but if a wider number of tailbacks can maintain 2015's crazy pace, maybe I have to rethink my approach. Maybe LeGarrette Blount is the better New England option than Dion Lewis. Maybe Hill's floor still starts where Bernard's ceiling ends. It's difficult to say, but one thing I do know for sure, and a final thought on running backs I'll leave you with before, you know, actually getting to the reason you're here, is this: after Le'Veon Bell there is a huge gap between the second back I would covet in a keeper league and the rest of the pack. And that man is Todd Gurley. Whoa, what a statement by that young fella. He is the total package, and it saddens me greatly that my future brother-in-law gets to keep the next Adrian Peterson for years to come while I'm over here crossing my fingers for Freeman to become the next Maurice Jones-Drew.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays with a bad opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

QUARTERBACK

Josh McCown, CLE at BAL

McCown has quietly been getting it done in a big way with an underrated collection of no-name targets. He's posted back-to-back games with at least 340 yards and two touchdowns, exploiting defenses with speed at receiver (Travis Benjamin), tight end (Gary Barnidge) and running back (Duke Johnson). He'll continue his sharp play against a Ravens D that allowed at least 350 yards and three scores passing in Weeks 2 and 3 before facing Michael Vick.

Russell Wilson, SEA at CIN

This is equal parts gut feeling and observation. Despite a shoddy offensive line, Wilson is completing 71.7 percent of his passes and has seen his yards per attempt increase every week. As hot as the Bengals offense has been, and with Marshawn Lynch banged up, this could be a signature contest for Wilson, who figures to have to throw it more often against a defense that's allowed Joe Flacco and Alex Smith to go off in consecutive weeks for more than 360 yards.

Jay Cutler, CHI at KC

Even without Alshon Jeffery and just two weeks removed from a hamstring injury, Cutler managed to toss it for 281 yards and two touchdowns last week. In a little less than 10 quarters of action this year he's thrown for more than 600 yards and four scores. Even if Jeffery cannot return this week Cutler should have little trouble producing against a secondary giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

RUNNING BACK

Alfred Morris, WAS at ATL

The Redskins have seen lackluster performances out of Matt Jones in consecutive weeks and have to deal with a thin receiving corps going to an undefeated Atlanta team. Lucky for them Morris is still a proud, lunch pail runner who can churn out tough yards against a Falcons defense allowing the most touchdowns and overall fantasy points to opposing tailbacks. [Note: for deeper PPR formats, Chris Thompson has sneaky value versus a group that's allowed the most receiving yards to the position].

Rashad Jennings, NYG vs. SF

Only the Falcons have allowed more rushing touchdowns than the six San Francisco has given up in four weeks. When he housed a 51-yard screen pass in true grown-man style against the Bills, Jennings reminded everyone that he's the best back for Big Blue. And it's not that close. Don't be surprised to see an encore.

LeGarrette Blount, NE at DAL

In his only extended action this year, Blount hammered Jacksonville for three short touchdowns before New England's bye. He must be licking his chops now to face a Dallas defense that's been pummeled on the ground the last two games to the tune of 261 yards and four touchdowns.

WIDE RECEIVER

Pierre Garcon, WAS at ATL

Garcon has quietly posted at least 64 yards or a touchdown in every game this season. With Kirk Cousins under center and DeSean Jackson sidelined by a hamstring injury, the one-time NFL catch leader is bouncing back from a dreadful 2014 campaign. Facing a Falcons defense that has allowed a 100-yard receiver in every game, look for Garcon to continue his comeback, especially with Jordan Reed likely sidelined (head/knee).

Eddie Royal, CHI at KC

In the two games that Jay Cutler suited up for that Alshon Jeffery did not, Royal has caught seven passes. Although the slippery slot receiver hasn't topped 8.0 yards per reception in a single game, he will remain very active and should find greater success against an embarrassing Chiefs secondary that's allowed by far the most yards (975) and touchdowns (10) to wideouts through four games.

Travis Benjamin, CLE at BAL

After significantly limiting Denver's elite receiver duo in Week 1, the Ravens secondary proceeded to get fried over two weeks by four wideouts who combined for 541 yards and four touchdowns. Playing a DeSean Jackson role for a surprisingly lively Browns offense, Benjamin will have the Baltimore corners on their heels again and push his streak of at least 79 yards or a score to five games.

Willie Snead, NO at PHI

It's time to recognize that Snead, and not Brandin Cooks, will lead the Saints in receiving this season. The undrafted rookie out of Ball State has more physicality to his game than his speedy counterpart, runs crisp routes and boasts both sure hands and elusiveness after the catch. Facing a garbage group of Eagles corners that's allowed the fourth-most yards to receivers, expect Snead to build on his unexpected emergence.

TIGHT END

Owen Daniels, DEN vs. OAK

The yards have yet to come, but Daniels has found the end zone in consecutive weeks and now he's next up on the wacky new game show "Tight Ends Owning Oakland." Four straight have posted more than 80 yards and a score against hapless Raiders, so get Daniels in the lineup if you're streaming the position.

Delanie Walker, TEN vs. BUF

Walker has posted at least 68 yards or a touchdown in two games with Marcus Mariota running the show, as he's snagged 10-of-13 looks for a healthy 8.5 yards per target. The Bills, who have allowed the third-most receptions (24) and fifth most yards (240) to tight ends, are about to get a heavy dose of Mariota's security blanket.

Vernon Davis, SF at NYG

The three quality tight ends the Giants have faced -- Jason Witten, Jordan Reed and Charles Clay -- have combined to catch 23 balls for 267 yards and two touchdowns. Davis, who had posted 109 yards in the first two weeks before a knee injury knocked him out of the bulk of the next two, could very well continue the trend of trashing the middle of the Giants' back seven if his knee will allow him to suit up.

DOWNGRADE:

QUARTERBACK

Andrew Luck, IND at HOU

It's not exactly like Houston's defense has been especially tough on quarterbacks, but it's also a pretty huge understatement to say Luck has yet to live up to the lofty expectations for his fourth year. He has seven picks in three games and has failed to top 260 yards passing. And if the slow start weren't enough, now he has to deal with J.J. Watt with a bum shoulder. And that's if he even plays in the Thursday night game.

Drew Brees, NO at PHI

Sure, in Brees' only other game on grass this year he threw for 355 yards. But he also matched touchdowns and interceptions 1-to-1, and that was before an ankle injury that's slowed Brandin Cooks and a shoulder injury that's sapped some of the zip on his ball. The Eagles secondary is weak, but the pass rush can be disruptive, and with both teams playing desperate, the home team should get the better of Brees.

RUNNING BACK

Carlos Hyde, SF at NYG

It seems the Giants' top-ranked run defense really is legit. After rookie Karlos Williams had trampled his way at a 7.8 YPC clip to a score in three straight games the G-Men stifled the young bull to the tune of 18-for-40 rushing. Hyde has fallen a long way from his monster Week 1 (just 36-for-114 and no scores since), and it appears that trend will continue.

Jeremy Hill, CIN vs. SEA

It's tough to bench the goal-line back of any high-powered offense (see Blount, LeGarrette), but Hill's second season is flirting very dangerously with branding him a boom-or-bust player. In two games he's found the end zone a combined five times. In the other two he's produced 60 rushing yards on 22 carries and lost two fumbles. Hill hasn't seen more than 12 touches since Week 1 and now must contend with a Seattle defense that's yet to allow a touchdown to a running back.

Frank Gore, IND at HOU

Before letting Freeman and the Falcons run wild, the Texans and their beefy front seven held Jamaal Charles, Jonathan Stewart and Doug Martin to a combined 165 yards on 47 carries (3.5 YPC). Gore, in his 30s, on a short week, with his star quarterback banged up, does not look like an appetizing option in this divisional war.

WIDE RECEIVER

Antonio Brown, PIT at SD

You're certainly not benching Brown. He's been the most productive receiver in the NFL over the last 36 games. But his 35-game streak of at least five catches for 50 yards came to a halt with Michael Vick under center last week. Now he must face an extremely stingy Chargers secondary that's allowed a league-low 430 yards to the wide receiver position.

Amari Cooper, OAK at DEN

Cooper passed his first big test with flying colors, torching Joe Haden in Week 3 for 134 yards. Aqib Talib and Chris Harris taking turns at the rook, however, will be a true litmus test of Cooper's ability to rise above his competition. Considering the brutal Denver pass rush forces the ball even faster out of quarterbacks' hands, it'll be an amazing feat if Cooper can consistently beat his coverage this week.

A.J. Green, CIN vs. SEA

While Green has prove capable of beating even the stingiest coverage (he does own one of two wide receiver touchdowns against San Diego this year), he'll have his work cut out for him against a defense that's allowed just one touchdown to a wideout this year and the second fewest yards to the position.

TIGHT END

Gary Barnidge, CLE at BAL

After posting at least six catches, 75 yards and a touchdown in consecutive weeks, chances are strong that the 6-foot-6 Barnidge has been scooped up in most leagues. On a Cleveland team hurting for receiving weapons it looks like he could be one of the surprises of the fantasy season. Unfortunately for his proud new owners, Barnidge has a defense on tap that blanked Tyler Eifert and has allowed a ridiculous 31 yards all season to tight ends.