Exploiting the Matchups: Give it Another Week

Absolutely maddening. The wonder that is fantasy football, for all the joy it can cause, can drive one completely, utterly, hopelessly crazy. Just when you think a guy is a stud, he Keenan Allen's you. He Jeremy Hill's you into a heartbreaker. Or worse yet, he freaking DeMarco Murray's you. Fumbles will happen. They won't keep a star benched forever. But how the heck does a former rushing champ net just two yards on 13 carries? Assuming I didn't die (yes, admittedly not the best odds on that assumption), I could rip off two yards on 13 tries in the NFL. I mean, if I didn't Frank Gore a few handoffs.

And now Murray is hurt. Insult. Injury. Bad starts to a fantasy season. A slew of other big names are right there with Murray and his bum hammy, so lineups including Eddie Lacy (ankle), Lamar Miller (ankle), Chris Ivory (groin/quadriceps), DeAndre Hopkins (concussion), Eric Decker (knee), Drew Brees (shoulder) and Tony Romo (collarbone), to name a few, might see some drastic shifts this week. With so many up-and-down performances and so many players going down it is easy to panic and pull a hasty move. It was the soapbox speech last week and it remains the same mantra heading into Week 3, even if you're 0-2: Trust. In. Talent.

Translation: give it another week.

Don't sell low. Don't buy high. Simple concepts, I know. But ones that are a bit easy to forget when times are tough. Sexy waiver names should be added where available (hello, Matt Jones, welcome to a stampedeable NFC East), but don't give up on a slow starter. Stay patient with the likes of Gore, C.J. Anderson and Brandin Cooks, among others. They'll reward in kind sooner or later, and in the meantime, consult this column religiously on how to replace those frustrating talents in your lineup when actually necessary (gotta work in a shameless plug at least once a month, it's in the handbook). And hey, the advice really does work. Last week's recommendation was enough to persuade my brother, the biggest Gore homer ever and a painfully stubborn human being, to flex Larry Fitzgerald instead, providing the difference in a big W over, ironically, the biggest Fitz fan I know. (You're welcome, by the way. Kindly return the favor in Week 5 and don't read this column so my struggling team can get a run going.)

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

QUARTERBACK

Derek Carr, OAK at CLE

Marcus Mariota slinging a couple TDs with a mish-mash of underwhelming skill talent says much more about Cleveland's suspect defense than Ryan Fitzpatrick beating them for two with stud power-forwards-masquerading-as-receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Carr shredded a legitimate Ravens secondary and, like the Jets' bearded journeyman, has the weapons to dust the Browns as well.

Blake Bortles, JAC at NE

Think volume. If searching for a second passer in two QB formats, Bortles is your guy. Allen Robinson proved himself to be a true No. 1 wideout last week and with quality complimentary receivers at his disposal as well, Bortles will do some damage against a weak New England secondary while playing catch-up to Tom Brady and Co.

Tyrod Taylor, BUF at MIA

The Dolphins are one of just five defenses that have yet to record two sacks, so Taylor's penchant for holding the ball too long shouldn't be a problem this week. Meanwhile, his ability to create big plays with both his legs and his arm will keep him in the upper echelon of QB2s.

Nick Foles, STL vs. PIT

The Rams still don't have a ground game, but against Pittsburgh they won't need one to move the football. The Steelers have displayed no ability to slow the pass. Case in point: Colin Kaepernick completed 71.7 percent of his passes for 335 yards on them. On the fast track of St. Louis' dome, Foles can match those numbers, especially when Le'Veon Bell's return makes Pittsburgh's O unstoppable.

RUNNING BACK

Matt Jones, WAS at NYG

That. Was. No. Fluke. Jones is a load to take down and boasts the wheels to break off long runs. With Washington following the 2014 Cowboys model of a chain-moving, North-South run game to control clock and tempo, expect Jones to extend his breakout performance. The Giants haven't seen a power attack yet and don't have the personnel to handle it.

Giovani Bernard, CIN at BAL

Bernard is back to the shifty, teleporting type runner that can change direction and explode up field in a blink. Nagging injuries and a bad offensive line made him look sluggish last year when Jeremy Hill stole the show. Last week, Hill handed it back by handing the opposition the ball. Expect Bernard to continue running with it in a backfield split against a division rival for which the Bengals will be amped.

Danny Woodhead, SD vs. MIN

The first two performances for the entire Minnesota team couldn't have been more dramatically different. But it's still too soon to gauge the run defense. The 49ers blasted it. The Lions barely even tried to run it. One thing we can conclude for sure: Woodhead is an integral part of San Diego's offense. With just four fewer touches than Melvin Gordon so far, expect the versatile Woody to keep piling up the yards.

Isaiah Crowell, CLE vs. OAK

Crowell's Week 1 clunker was really more a reflection of the Jets' stout run defense and a game flow that limited his touches. Posting 72 yards and a score on the Titans was more like it for this bruiser with good lateral quickness and natural running instincts. Drawing a Raiders D that's allowed opposing backs to go for 4.7 yards per tote and three scores over two games should keep Crowell right in RB2 territory.

WIDE RECEIVER

James Jones, GB vs. KC

All he does is catch touchdowns? Sure, three of Jones' five grabs this season have come in the end zone, so you were likely thinking of flexing him anyway. But with Lacy's sore ankle weakening the ground game and Davante Adams dealing with his own ankle injury, the yards will also come Jones' way Monday night. The Chiefs have been torched by wide receivers, allowing more than 500 yards to the position in two weeks.

Michael Crabtree, OAK at CLE

Crabtree hopped in his DeLorean last week to revisit 2012, the last time he topped 100 yards with a score. That season he posted five such games (including the playoffs), showing off crisp route running, sticky hands and elusiveness after the catch. Returning to that form has seen him lead Oakland with 14 catches and 24 targets through two games, and with rookie sensation Amari Cooper likely garnering a lot of Joe Haden attention, expect the trend to continue.

Donte Moncrief, IND at TEN

Travis Benjamin snuck behind a suspect Titans back seven for two touchdown bombs last week. Meanwhile, with T.Y. Hilton less than 100 percent healthy Moncrief has emerged as Andrew Luck's favorite target. Although Hilton and rookie speedster Phillip Dorsett are the likelier deep threats, don't forget that the physically imposing Moncrief also boasts 4.4-speed.

Doug Baldwin, SEA vs. CHI

With seven catches in each of the first two weeks, Baldwin has been one of the few consistent factors in a Seattle offense that is about to open a can of whoop ass on a Bears team giving up a crazy 39.5 points per game. He should have little trouble taking advantage of a sloppy secondary that's allowed a league-high seven TDs to wideouts.

TIGHT END

Jared Cook, STL vs. PIT

Averaging 66 yards a game, Cook is leading all Rams in targets, catches and yards. True, the Steelers D gets the "Gronkowski" exception when grading how they handle tight ends, but it warrants mentioning that Vernon Davis also posted 62 yards and Scott Chandler found the end zone versus this group. Cook is ready to establish himself as a starting fantasy tight end.

Crockett Gillmore, BAL vs. CIN

The Bengals have not necessarily proven themselves tough against tight ends. The best they've faced is Ladarius Green. Maybe the Raiders can't cover tight ends (Gillmore smashed them for 88 and two scores), but maybe Oakland's ineptitude against the position was more a result of facing Tyler Eifert AND Gillmore, two essentially jumbo wide receivers that serve as the No. 2 targets in their offenses.

DOWNGRADE:

QUARTERBACK

Drew Brees, NO at CAR

The Panthers have allowed a league-low 4.4 yards per pass attempt. Although Sean Payton may trot out Brees despite a bruised rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder, that doesn't mean you should. After all, he struggled to move the football against a Bucs defense that let Marcus Mariota post a perfect passer rating while torching it for four touchdowns in his first career start.

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. DEN

After a pummeling by the Vikings, Stafford, tough as he is, may not even be able to suit up. But if he does happen to give it a go, and you mistakenly drafted him as your starting quarterback, look to the bench or waivers or your local high school team for a replacement. The Broncos boast arguably the best corner AND pass-rush tandems in football and have allowed only 270 passing yards and zero scores in two weeks.

RUNNING BACK

Carlos Hyde, SF at AZ

Talk about Jekyll and Hyde (pun intended). After an eye-opening Week 1 trampling of a physical Vikings defense, Hyde turned in a stinker facing a less imposing Steelers unit, going for one third as many total yards while scraping his way to 3.3 yards per carry. Now he gets the joy of facing a Cardinals defense that's held Mark Ingram and Matt Forte to a combined 3.5 YPC. The good Dr. Jekyll may be too soft for a swarming Arizona defense if Hyde's alter ego shows up in the desert.

Jeremy Hill, CIN at BAL

This is a self-imposed downgrade by Hill himself. He crushed plenty of fantasy owners last week by fumbling his way to the bench versus a soft Chargers run defense that Bernard proceeded to shred for 6.2 YPC. With his dynamic backup flashing the playmaking ability that made him a fantasy darling before Hill's arrival, the two are almost certain to see a timeshare against a stiffer Ravens run D.

Eddie Lacy, GB vs. KC

Fantasy owners can't play Lacy this week, plain and simple. Although his sprained ankle isn't especially serious, if he remains questionable approaching Sunday kickoffs the ONLY way you can risk him for a game-time Monday night decision is if you handcuffed James Starks. Even then, Lacy is a long shot to return even flex value.

WIDE RECEIVER

Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, DET vs. DEN

Johnson and Tate were both awfully quiet in Week 1 against a Chargers secondary that's quickly emerging as one of the league's best. They rebounded despite facing another stingy group last week in Minnesota. Now they must face the best in the league. Led by stud corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, and bolstered by a fierce pass rush, Denver has allowed a paltry 102 yards so far to wide receivers.

Jordan Matthews, PHI at NYJ

Matthews' 22 targets easily lead a group of middling Eagles receivers. However, the clear cut No. 1 for a dreadful looking Philly offense took about 56 minutes of game action to make his first catch last week and is about to make another disappearing act while on vacation at Revis Island. Yes, trust talent, but in this case that means trusting Darrelle Revis' superior skill.

Brandin Cooks, NO at CAR

Not only has Cooks been highly underwhelming this season (as has the entire Saints offense), but he's also drawing a top-notch Carolina defense on the road. The Panthers have held emerging stars Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins to a combined six catches for 80 yards when their other two games totaled 15 grabs, 253 yards and four TDs. Toss in Cooks' sore ankle and Brees' bum shoulder and you have a recipe for disaster.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett, CHI at SEA

Bennett was drafted as a top-10 tight end but he's going to have great difficulty living up to those expectations. With Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) limited at best, Bennett is the team's top target. However, with Jimmy Clausen under center, against an 0-2 Seahawks in Seattle, with Kam Chancellor back ... oh me, oh my. No thank you.