On Target: Wrapping Up the Season

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Updated on December 24, 2014 6:04PM EST

What a glorious fantasy season it was. I hope that all RotoWire subscribers had the best of luck in their finals. It was certainly a tumultuous week with many of the elite quarterbacks doing absolutely nothing (Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees combined for two touchdowns), but pass catchers did their best to carry us to titles. Odell Beckham, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Gates and Sammy Watkins did their fantasy owners properly in the final week of the season. Now that the redraft season is behind us, I'd like to look back at the target spectrum for the year.

PLAYER	TARGETS	REC	Catch%	YARDS	TD
Antonio Brown	168	122	72.6	1570	12
Demaryius Thomas	167	103	61.7	1504	11
Julio Jones	155	100	64.5	1535	6
Jordy Nelson	143	92	64.3	1433	13
Alshon Jeffery	140	83	59.3	1099	10
Kelvin Benjamin	140	72	51.4	999	9
Vincent Jackson	140	69	49.3	991	2
Golden Tate	138	96	69.6	1286	4
Jeremy Maclin	137	82	59.9	1269	10
Julian Edelman	134	92	68.7	972	4
Emmanuel Sanders	132	95	72.0	1331	9
Rob Gronkowski	131	82	62.6	1124	12
Andre Johnson	131	75	57.3	802	2
Dez Bryant	130	84	64.6	1221	14
T.Y. Hilton	128	82	64.1	1345	7
Sammy Watkins	123	62	50.4	925	6
Randall Cobb	122	87	71.3	1207	10
Steve Smith	122	71	58.2	975	6
DeAndre Hopkins	121	74	61.2	1205	6
Anquan Boldin	121	81	66.9	981	4
Keenan Allen	121	77	63.6	783	4
Greg Olsen	120	81	67.5	975	6
Matt Forte	118	94	79.7	785	4
Calvin Johnson	117	67	57.3	1038	6
Martellus Bennett	117	82	70.1	857	6
Mike Evans	116	63	54.3	997	11
Jimmy Graham	116	79	68.1	835	10
Mike Wallace	114	67	58.8	862	10
Rueben Randle	114	65	57.0	780	3
Brandon LaFell	113	70	61.9	883	7
Roddy White	113	72	63.7	817	7
Reggie Wayne	113	62	54.9	688	2
Odell Beckham	109	79	72.5	1120	11
James Jones	108	71	65.7	633	6
Brandon Marshall	106	61	57.5	721	8
Andrew Hawkins	105	59	56.2	791	2
Michael Crabtree	104	64	61.5	657	4
A.J. Green	103	61	59.2	959	6
Eric Decker	103	64	62.1	741	4
Jarvis Landry	103	79	76.7	703	5
Pierre Garcon	100	66	66.0	699	3
Robert Woods	100	61	61.0	660	4
Cecil Shorts	100	48	48.0	510	1
Le'Veon Bell	99	77	77.8	774	3
Larry Fitzgerald	99	61	61.6	755	2
Mohamed Sanu	97	55	56.7	774	5
Delanie Walker	96	56	58.3	814	4
Doug Baldwin	94	63	67.0	782	3
Jordan Matthews	93	59	63.4	767	7
Allen Hurns	93	49	52.7	662	6
John Brown	93	44	47.3	645	5
DeSean Jackson	92	54	58.7	1083	5
Marques Colston	92	57	62.0	851	4
Antonio Gates	92	65	70.7	754	12
Andre Holmes	92	45	48.9	683	4
Jared Cook	92	49	53.3	597	3
Riley Cooper	91	53	58.2	540	3
Mychal Rivera	91	56	61.5	508	4
Dwayne Bowe	90	57	63.3	724	0
Kendall Wright	88	55	62.5	706	5
Greg Jennings	87	56	64.4	697	6
Michael Floyd	87	39	44.8	688	4
Fred Jackson	87	65	74.7	497	1
Larry Donnell	86	61	70.9	597	6
Coby Fleener	85	46	54.1	718	6
Torrey Smith	85	45	52.9	684	10
Malcom Floyd	84	49	58.3	827	6
Heath Miller	84	63	75.0	720	3
Jason Witten	84	60	71.4	654	5
Eddie Royal	83	58	69.9	683	7
Zach Ertz	83	54	65.1	646	3
Markus Wheaton	82	50	61.0	637	2
Allen Robinson	81	48	59.3	548	2
Travis Kelce	79	60	75.9	778	5
Kenny Britt	79	44	55.7	710	3
Charles Clay	78	53	67.9	560	2
Percy Harvin	78	51	65.4	483	1
Jermaine Gresham	77	59	76.6	440	4
Kenny Stills	76	58	76.3	849	3
Jerricho Cotchery	75	45	60.0	546	1
Owen Daniels	74	46	62.2	481	4
Miles Austin	73	48	65.8	581	2
Shane Vereen	73	49	67.1	433	3
Jeremy Kerley	73	37	50.7	376	1
Andre Roberts	70	35	50.0	446	2
Nate Washington	69	40	58.0	647	2
Brandin Cooks	69	53	76.8	550	3
Jermaine Kearse	69	38	55.1	537	1
Scott Chandler	69	46	66.7	477	3
Harry Douglas	68	46	67.6	528	2
Justin Hunter	67	28	41.8	498	3
Taylor Gabriel	66	34	51.5	559	1
Davante Adams	66	38	57.6	446	3
Cordarrelle Patterson	66	33	50.0	384	1
Andre Ellington	64	46	71.9	395	2
Julius Thomas	62	43	69.4	489	12
Wes Welker	62	47	75.8	422	2
Hakeem Nicks	62	35	56.5	359	4
Terrance Williams	61	34	55.7	553	8
Marqise Lee	61	35	57.4	414	1
DeMarco Murray	61	54	88.5	395	0
Jarius Wright	59	39	66.1	565	2
Jason Avant	59	33	55.9	346	1
Matt Asiata	59	42	71.2	295	1
Chris Hogan	58	40	69.0	430	4
Arian Foster	58	37	63.8	317	4
Brian Hartline	57	34	59.6	391	2
Louis Murphy	56	31	55.4	380	2
Darren Sproles	56	37	66.1	364	0
Jamaal Charles	56	38	67.9	283	5
Charles Johnson	55	29	52.7	453	3
Jordan Reed	55	41	74.5	395	0
Pierre Thomas	55	45	81.8	378	1
Justin Forsett	55	42	76.4	246	0
John Carlson	54	32	59.3	344	1
Marcel Reece	54	34	63.0	235	1
Devin Hester	53	34	64.2	472	2
Joique Bell	53	34	64.2	322	1
Preston Parker	52	34	65.4	398	2
Darren McFadden	52	34	65.4	206	0
Eddie Lacy	51	39	76.5	401	4
Giovani Bernard	51	36	70.6	293	1
Steve Johnson	50	35	70.0	435	3
Dwayne Allen	50	29	58.0	395	8
Brent Celek	50	31	62.0	339	0
Lamar Miller	50	38	76.0	262	1
Reggie Bush	50	37	74.0	231	0
Levine Toilolo	50	29	58.0	224	2
Niles Paul	49	37	75.5	488	1
Jace Amaro	49	35	71.4	311	2
Vernon Davis	49	25	51.0	236	2
Josh Gordon	47	24	51.1	303	0
Ahmad Bradshaw	47	38	80.9	300	6
Travaris Cadet	47	36	76.6	287	1
Martavis Bryant	46	25	54.3	528	7
Damaris Johnson	46	28	60.9	298	1
Benny Cunningham	46	38	82.6	295	1
Marshawn Lynch	45	34	75.6	331	4
Andrew Quarless	45	29	64.4	323	3
Bobby Rainey	45	33	73.3	315	1
Kenbrell Thompkins	45	20	44.4	260	0
Donte Moncrief	44	29	65.9	428	3
Stedman Bailey	44	29	65.9	418	1
Brandon Gibson	44	25	56.8	252	1
Jeff Cumberland	44	21	47.7	224	2
Travis Benjamin	43	17	39.5	305	3
Theo Riddick	43	29	67.4	282	3
Branden Oliver	43	34	79.1	267	1
Roy Helu	42	38	90.5	436	2
Jordan Cameron	42	21	50.0	383	2
Tavon Austin	42	29	69.0	229	0
Victor Cruz	41	23	56.1	337	1
C.J. Anderson	41	32	78.0	304	2
Eric Ebron	41	23	56.1	210	1
Jerick McKinnon	41	27	65.9	135	0
Cole Beasley	40	31	77.5	363	4
Donald Brown	40	28	70.0	203	0

It shouldn't surprise any of us to see Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas atop this list. They will be drafted very high in 2015, and they'll likely be worth their tag. If Peyton Manning retires, I do believe that there may be a significant drop in DT's redraft ADP, and I am inclined to believe that could create profit potential. Thomas is the best player in that offense and regardless of the quarterback, he will still see a ton of targets and add touchdown potential. It is interesting to note that only AB and DT played a full healthy season and averaged more than 10 targets per game.

Julio Jones was a close third, and I think his 2014 season set up a great redraft price tag in 2015. Dynasty players are already heavily invested in the young Atlanta Falcon but re-drafters are prone to recency bias. Jones has had a down year due to a lack of touchdowns, but there is an easy path to regression. He's massive and quick, which already paints illustrious touchdown potential, but look at the players around him in sheer targets -- Brown, Demaryius, Nelson, Alshon have similar targets and have double-digit touchdowns. If Jones' redraft tag falls into the third round next year, it's going to be hard to not draft him repeatedly. There is also the added benefit of Roddy White getting another year older and slower; as White has aged over the last several seasons, Jones' role in the offense has grown.

Vincent Jackson could also scream touchdown regression, except ... he's 31, plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and is opposite one of the most talented wide receivers in football. Mike Evans severely limits VJax's ceiling on a week-to-week basis because he is so much better at scoring touchdowns due to this athleticism and size advantage. Evans is basically Kelvin Benjamin with less targets and way more explosiveness, which should bode well for drafters hoping to take advantage of his slow finish to the season. The Bucs are liable to draft a quarterback with their first pick next year, and if they do, both Jackson and Evans could end up being nice redraft values next season, though I would be cautious of falling into the Larry Fitzgerald trap with Jackson. When big, tall receivers get old, they age in a hurry. It's uncommon for 6-foot-4, 220, wide receivers who rely on speed and quickness to get open to post WR1 or even high-end WR2 numbers after age 31.

I have beat this discussion to death, but Rob Gronkowski absolutely deserves to be a first-round draft pick. He scores touchdowns per game at a greater rate than Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas and scores almost .3 more touchdowns per game than Jimmy Graham. Graham, on other hand, will basically be entirely off my board come next season. He has one 100-yard game this season, his quarterback is in rapid decline and it is clear that we are not dealing with the Saints of old. They are a bad football team, and at this point, Graham is basically Martellus Bennett. Marty B has seen 117 targets this season, while Graham has 116. Bennett has a slightly more yards, while Graham has four more touchdowns. That difference in touchdown scoring is to be expected as the Black Unicorn is the fourth option on his team in the passing game whereas Graham is the clear No. 1. That said, something dramatic would have to happen for Graham to return to prominence as a viable second- or third-round draft pick.

Finally, I think Odell Beckham is going to be worth whatever he costs next season. Jordy Nelson and Calvin Johnson are close to entering their age 30 seasons, and I always prefer to invest in youth over experience. Beckham was limited as a college player by the offense he was in, but in the NFL, there is a system in place that can stop him. No quarterback, no offensive coordinator, no cornerback has the ability to stop Beckham from scoring touchdowns, and that is worth getting on your team even though it takes a first-round pick.