This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
The only thing that could have made me happier is if it had been in my lineup. Last Sunday culminated with one of the most pleasing moments in my fantasy football life all thanks to a fellow former Golden Domer, the bruising, determined, "Beast of the East," Jonas Gray.
And it set the stage for an extremely important fantasy lesson that gets lost in the November dusk of long football seasons. With playoffs looming, those teams humbled by bad picks, bad injuries and general misfortune typically lose focus and return to a boring life that is anything but fantasy. They quit making moves and throw in the proverbial towel. Gray authored a demonstrative chapter on why you should NEVER STOP TRYING.
Fantasy owners should grind out the season regardless of their record. For one, all leagues are set up differently, and as Chris Berman always says in such simplistically eloquent fashion, "That's why they play the game." You just don't know what breaks you may get. Second, even if the playoffs are a mathematical impossibility, there is a sweet, sweet solace that comes with playing the spoiler. And finally, nobody likes a quitter. Gray didn't quit, and look where that got him. Making damn history.
This is a story of how to make the most out of not quitting. My favorite home league was started by my older brother and his friend. It's an eight-team keeper league -- laugh all you want at the eight-team format, but it's far more competitive than you'd imagine and easily the most fun I have in a league every year. Our rosters are very deep, and we use six starting IDPs to keep things interesting. It is a Simpsons-themed league. My brother, a.k.a. "The Stonecutters," rode Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Montee Ball and Chris Johnson in as keepers, and 49ers homer that he is, made the brilliant move to select Colin Kaepernick in the first round. So naturally the 'Cutters flopped their way to a franchise-worst 1-8 start.
But my brother NEVER stopped making moves, and now has positioned his team for greatness next season by a series of wheeling and dealing that came with uncanny timing. AND as if that weren't enough, Gray ripping a narrow victory from the hands of a Tom Brady-led team on Sunday Night Football has moved him to 3-8 and miraculously still in the playoff hunt should every single game the rest of the season break his way.
Let's get sidetracked with this for a sec: the league entered last week with four teams at 5-5 and vying for the final two playoff spots with four games left (including yours truly). None played each other. My team is getting hot, and thanks to Gray I was the only of the four to win -- in dominant fashion I might add (yes, I learned my lesson with Mike Evans last week). The three remaining 5-6 teams do not play each other again. My bro plays two of them and me this week. If he wins out and they lose out, he's in. Of course, there's simply no way he can beat me first.
Getting back on track, none of the moves my brother made came with the playoffs in mind, so Gray's outburst Sunday was really just a pleasant surprise, an assist to me in my playoff run and a tribute to staying the course, finding your hole and barreling through it. Keep in mind, league format largely determines how much you can impact a bad team in October and November, aside from just becoming a spoiler a la the St. Louis Rams. In the case of our Simpsons league, we can trade valuable draft picks during the season. So finally, on to the laundry list of great moves the 'Cutters made despite being buried by a terrible start (his record at the time is in parenthesis):
Notable Free Agent pickups:
1. Ronnie Hillman (1-4)
2. Mohamed Sanu (1-4)
3. Gray (1-5)
4. Jordan Matthews (1-8)
Notable Trades:
1. Shane Vereen for Ryan Mathews (1-2)
2. Pierre Garcon for Ahmad Bradshaw (1-2)
3. Hillman, Ball, Sanu for Bishop Sankey and 1st- and 2nd-round picks in 2015 (1-7 - Hillman and Ball both hurt two weeks later)
4. Bradshaw, Mike Wallace for Darren Sproles and a 4th-round pick in 2015 (1-8 - in advance of Bradshaw's bye and a week before a broken leg)
With two picks in the first, second and fourth rounds of next year's draft, having capitalized with uncanny timing on players he otherwise couldn't trade, my brother set himself up to reap more from this season than all but the eventual league champ. All because he kept trying. And he'll still have Johnson and Jones to headline his keepers next year. The Stonecutters will never be known as quitters, just like Mr. Gray.
Make the best moves you can as long as you can. At the very least, running through that hole creates chance for something good on the other side - sometimes, you may even find four improbable touchdowns. And who knows, maybe a miraculous playoff run to top it off.
Same as always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Players that are upgraded are the guys you wouldn't consistently start, while those being downgraded generally are lineup mainstays or have been hot of late. The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADE
Quarterback
Mark Sanchez, PHI vs. TEN
Chip Kelly offense, plentiful weapons. Sure, Sanchez will have his turnovers. But the positive numbers will outweigh the negatives every time. In less than three games he's put up nearly 900 yards and six touchdowns.
Josh McCown, TB at CHI
In the four games he finished, McCown has produced two TD in each. With Mike Evans developing into a bona fide star, McCown will face his former squad with a similar basketball-sized trio of pass catchers to the one that he thrived with in Chicago last year.
Brian Hoyer, CLE at ATL
The Falcons pass defense is dead last in yards allowed per game (281.2). Josh Gordon is back. The end.
Joe Flacco, BAL at NO
The Saints let Andy Dalton waltz into the Superdome and go 16-of-22 for 220 yards and three touchdowns a week after an anemic 10-of-33 performance that saw him pile up a whopping 86 yards and three interceptions. The end.
Running Back
Denard Robinson, JAC at IND
Jonas Gray got in a rhythm versus a bad run defense. Robinson has been hot for weeks - 389 yards while averaging 5.4 YPC and scoring four times over his last four outings.
Tre Mason, STL at SD
San Diego is not a bad run defense. But they're also not as good as the formerly top-ranked Denver unit that Mason punished for 113 yards. It's almost certain his 29 carries will drop, but with the Rams defense playing lights out and Philip Rivers banged up, St. Louis could be running the clock out again.
Trent Richardson, IND vs. JAC
It likely won't be pretty (see seven carries for zero yards versus New England), but the Colts should not struggle to get a lead on Jacksonville and by sheer volume with Ahmad Bradshaw (leg) out, Richardson should put up solid yardage -- he did hit 80 total yards in their first meeting.
Shane Vereen, NE vs. DET
While Gray was busy stampeding the Colts, Vereen touched the ball just five times. Those touches, however, netted him 77 yards. Facing the No. 1 rush defense in football, expect Bill Belichick to turn to more of an aerial attack, one in which Vereen will be the headliner this week.
Isaiah Crowell, CLE at ATL
And then there were two. With the release of Ben Tate the rookies in Cleveland are no longer scary starts. Crowell is averaging a full yard more per carry this season than Terrance West and has been preferred at the goal line (five scores to three). The team will still run heavily and Atlanta can be run on (13 ground TD's allowed).
Wide Receiver
Josh Gordon, CLE at ATL
There very well may be some rust after a 10-game absence this season, but when Gordon returned last year from a two-game suspension to pair up with Brian Hoyer for the first time he saw 19 targets en route to 146 yards and a score.
Jordan Matthews, PHI vs. TEN
In seven games and change with Nick Foles under center, Matthews caught two touchdowns and never surpassed 60 yards in a game. In less than three with Sanchez he's caught four TD and posted back-to-back 100-yard days. The talent was always there, and now he has someone taking advantage of it.
Torrey Smith, BAL at NO
Smith has snatched five touchdowns in Baltimore's last five games and now gets to face a Saints defense that has allowed No. 1 wideouts to average 101.0 yards per game over their last six.
Kenny Stills, Marques Colston, NO vs. BAL
Brandin Cooks and his seven-target per game average is now sidelined with a broken thumb. Stills is the deep threat and Colston the chain-mover. Baltimore has the fifth best run defense, but only Houston has allowed more yards to wide receivers.
Mohamed Sanu, CIN at HOU
It's tough to justify gambling with Sanu after consecutive games below 25 yards, but no defense has allowed more receptions, yards or fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than Houston. Led by J.J. Watt, the Texans should keep this close enough to force Andy Dalton into more than 22 pass attempts this week.
Tight End
Coby Fleener, IND vs. JAC
Dwayne Allen and his seven touchdown grabs have limited the tremendous upside of Fleener, who has exploded with 221 yards and a score the last two weeks. Allen is now dealing with an ankle injury and Fleener will pit his 15.1 yards-per-catch average against a Jags team that allowed BOTH tight ends to score in Week 3.
Larry Donnell, NYG vs. DAL
Only three teams have allowed more yards and touchdowns to tight ends than the Cowboys. And Donnell is still far and away Eli Manning's best red-zone weapon.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB at CHI
The gigantic rookie tight end was not needed versus a Redskins team that rolled over last week, but in the four games prior he'd posted 58 yards or a touchdown in three. The Bears offense will force plenty of passing, and Chicago has given up the most fantasy points this season to the position.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Peyton Manning, DEN vs. MIA
Obviously there's no way you're benching him, but the expectations must be lowered if Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) and Julius Thomas (ankle) are out. Miami's defense is allowing the second-fewest pass yards per game (208) and is tied for third in sacks (30).
Drew Brees, NO vs. BAL
The Ravens have faced three quarterbacks in the top five in passing yards -- Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. Big Ben they got twice, shutting down once and getting torched the other time. Luck turned in 312, just one TD and two picks (pretty un-Luck numbers). Ryan was mediocre. Brees couldn't put up numbers on Cincinnati and just lost Brandin Cooks (thumb) to IR.
Philip Rivers, SD vs. STL
Rivers is playing through a painful rib injury and now must deal with a ferocious Rams front seven that just sacked and picked Peyton Manning twice each while limiting him to one score. Meanwhile, Rivers couldn't even top 200 yards or one score versus Oakland at home last week.
Running Back
Mark Ingram, NO vs. BAL
Ingram has seen at least 30 touches in three straight games. By sheer volume his yardage should be there even when the efficiency suffers. He's clearly wearing down though in recent weeks (23 for 67 versus Cinci) and now could struggle mightily against a Ravens D giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing tailbacks.
Jonas Gray, NE vs. DET
Personally, I would still play him. And who would truly be surprised if Belichick decided to show everyone that Gray can actually catch too? But the numbers are a legitimate concern. Detroit's run D is allowing just 3.0 YPC and 68.8 yards per game to lead the league in each category.
Alfred Morris, WAS at SF
The Niners, as they always do, have a top-10 run defense. Morris has run hard lately and steadily increased his rushing output in five straight, but his only other two contests versus top-10 run defenses resulted in 70 yards combined. And it's not like Robert Griffin's arm is helping him out much.
Ryan Mathews, SD vs. STL
In the last three weeks, a swarming and violent Rams front seven has limited Frank Gore, Andre Ellington and C.J. Anderson to a combined 101 yards on 41 carries (2.5 YPC). Mathews was solid in his first game back from injury (75 total yards), but he'll be hard-pressed to match it this week.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson, DET at NE
Shutting down T.Y. Hilton is a lot smaller feat (literally and figuratively) than keeping Johnson in check. However, if Patrick Peterson and a swarming Cardinals secondary can do it, so can Darrelle Revis and a stingy unit coached by Belichick.
Julio Jones, ATL vs. CLE
Jones has seen 72 targets over his last seven games, but he's netted just 547 yards for an average of 78.1 per contest. In that period he has zero touchdowns while Matt Ryan has thrown only 10 scores. Joe Haden plays for a Cleveland defense that has allowed 14 passing TD all year. Do. The. Math.
Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, AZ at SEA
Drew Stanton will not be a detriment to the Cardinals passing attack. He proved that versus a very good Lions defense. Floyd became relevant again with two touchdown grabs, but a trip to Seattle and the top fantasy defense versus opposing wideouts will keep him and a now-injured Fitzgerald (knee) under wraps.
Tight End
Antonio Gates, SD vs. STL
The Rams have allowed just two touchdowns all year to tight ends, and they're playing their best football of the season right now. While Gates has experienced a fountain of youth at times this year, he and the struggling Chargers aerial attack are rapidly trending in the wrong direction.
