This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
The NFL is a fickle thing. One minute you could be fumbling from the impact of a teammate's behind, the other you could be the savior of a team that just as quickly gives up on a quarterback who threw for 27 touchdowns with only two interceptions one year prior. You could have thrown for at least 249 yards and two touchdowns in four of your five starts this season and still be benched for someone more than 10 years older against the very team that made that player look like a fool before injuring him. Or you could be a first- or second-round quarterback drafted to lead your franchise into the future only to be given up on for aging veterans who have had years to prove themselves unable to produce in accordance with their physical attributes - and that happens before you're given adequate weapons to work with. And that's just the quarterback position.
In case you were wondering, those discussed include the one and only Mark Sanchez, Nick Foles, Mike Glennon, Josh McCown, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Geno Smith and Michael Vick. If someone predicted that entering Week 10 you might be faced with starting Sanchez or Orton during Andrew Luck or Tom Brady's bye, you would have questioned that person's sanity. But here we are. Like I said, fickle.
As fantasy owners, we must be as fickle as NFL head coaches this time of year. If you see a little-used running back playing at a higher level than the "stud" you drafted, cut bait. My rosters are now leaning on tailbacks like Denard Robinson, Bobby Rainey and Terrance West after completely parting ways with the likes of "workhorses" in Doug Martin, Zac Stacy and Frank Gore. And these are the players many of you will win with too, as the week-to-week nature of the league has almost never been more apparent. Just ask the Cowboys and their now suddenly stagnant offense. Sorry Brandon Weeden fans, he's not getting it done. Well, not this week most likely, but the Jaguars are still the Jaguars and fickle is the bounce of the ball. So a surprise could be in store.
Regardless, the moral of this unending intro is simply this: don't be afraid to break up with an underperforming talent if you NEED to win now, like playoffs are not happening if you don't. Hence, why you won't find Cordarrelle Patterson on my rosters. Channel your inner Whitesnake, belt out "Here I Go Again" and make those tough drops for the waiver assets that can help you NOW (spoiler alert, there's a Chris Polk sighting below). After all, there's a lot of talent out of action this week with the Colts, Patriots, Chargers, Redskins, Texans and Vikings on bye.
As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays. The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADE
Quarterback
Matt Ryan, ATL at TB
The Buccaneers are only a few weeks removed from letting Joe Flacco throw five scores in just over a quarter. Coming off his bye, Ryan should torch the 31st-ranked pass defense in a similar fashion to his near flawless Week 3 performance.
Kyle Orton, KC vs. BUF
Never mind that the Chiefs give up the fewest yards per game passing (199.4) or that both Sammy Watkins and Fred Jackson are dealing with groin injuries. With or without them Orton will find a way. In four starts he's thrown for 300-plus yards or multiple scores every time, with nine TD total. Ride the hot play.
Cam Newton, CAR at PHI
In three of the last four games Newton has finally put his legs to use, rushing for at least 40 yards with two scores on the ground. Moreover, the Eagles just let Ryan Fitzpatrick toss it for 203 yards and two TD and give up the third most points per game to the position.
Mark Sanchez, PHI vs. CAR
The right system can make an average talent shine or a truly talented player a star. With Nick Foles (collarbone) out we'll get to see which Sanchez really is after his bumpy ride as a Jet. He looked comfortable in Chip Kelly's offense last week and has the weapons to exploit a Carolina D giving up nearly 250 yards and two scores per game passing.
Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN
DISCLAIMER: for two-quarterback leagues only. Carr has tossed seven touchdowns in his last four starts with games of 282 and 328 yards in that stretch, and he even threw for two scores in Seattle last week. Denver will make him throw it plenty and has given up nine aerial TD in three games.
Running Back
Jeremy Hill, CIN vs. CLE
Staking his claim for the best rookie back in the league, Hill ripped Jacksonville last week for 154 yards and two scores at 6.4 YPC. The Jags had quietly not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season despite always playing from behind. The Browns are giving up 139.6 yards per game on the ground. Second helping? Yes please!
Bobby Rainey, TB vs. ATL
Rainey averages 4.6 YPC and 9.3 per catch and now gets to face fantasy's most generous run defense minus Doug Martin (ankle) and with Charles Sims being eased into action.
Terrance West, CLE at CIN
After the Jaguars piled up another 182 total yards and a score on the Bengals, Cincinnati's ridiculous generosity to running backs is now up to 911 total yards and seven touchdowns in just five games. West took the lead of Cleveland's backfield last week while Ben Tate rushed for three pitiful yards on 10 carries. It's flex time.
Anthony Dixon, BUF vs. KC
In one game without Fred Jackson (groin) it was Dixon, not Bryce Brown, who dominated the carries (22 to seven). While neither had success, the Chiefs are much worse versus the run than the Jets, giving up 116.1 yards per game and 4.7 YPC. With Jackson likely limited or out again, look for Dixon to stay featured.
Chris Polk, PHI vs. CAR
Yes, it would be a desperation move, but no it would not be THAT crazy. Carolina is tied for last in YPC allowed at 4.8 and has given up the second most rushing scores. Polk averages 7.3 YPC and a TD every 5.5 attempts for his career. And the Eagles may want to lean on the run more with Foles out.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans, TB vs. ATL
It's a disappointment to Evans owners that McCown will re-take the starting reins from Glennon, but that shouldn't entirely detract from the rookie's progress. He's snagged four passes in every game, with four TD over his last four and is ripping off more chunk yardage. Atlanta, meanwhile, allows the most yards per reception to wideouts (17.5).
Percy Harvin, NYJ vs. PIT
Two games into his Jets career Harvin has piled up 22 targets, nearly half his total for the season. He's also carried it five times. His chemistry with Vick improved dramatically in just one week, and when the Jets are forced to the air against a far superior Steelers team, Harvin should take advantage again.
Martavis Bryant, PIT at NYJ
He's scored five touchdowns in three career games. The Jets have allowed 24 in nine weeks (easily worst in the league). The math is overwhelmingly in Bryant's favor here.
Kendall Wright/Justin Hunter, TEN at BAL
The Ravens have allowed the most yards to opposing wide receivers this season at 207 per game. Zach Mettenberger will only be making his second start, but it's a safe bet the big-armed signal caller will be slinging it plenty, giving Wright and Hunter opportunities to make plays downfield.
Tight End
Heath Miller, PIT at NYJ
Miller can be completely hit or miss, as evidenced by the games of 13 and 14 yards that sandwiched a 112-yard scoring performance versus Indy. The Jets have allowed 11 touchdowns to tight ends this season, so there really couldn't be a better week to roll the dice if your guy is on bye.
Larry Donnell, NYG at SEA
The 10 touchdowns the Seahawks have allowed to tight ends are the second most in the league. They just let Mychal Rivera score his first two of the season in their building last week, and Donnell is a far greater red-zone threat.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick, SF at NO
The Rams more than doubled their season sack total against Kaepernick, the most sacked QB in the league now. After seeing the Saints limit Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton to one combined passing score the last two weeks, it almost doesn't matter that New Orleans has a weak pass rush.
Matthew Stafford, DET vs. MIA
The Dolphins have been stifling versus the throw in recent weeks. They are not letting teams go downfield and while Stafford is expected to have Calvin Johnson back and already has Golden Tate playing at a high level, he's also the second most sacked QB and is prone to forcing risky throws. This could go either way.
Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NYG
Since exploding for the league's first 300/100 game passing and rushing, Wilson has been dreadful versus bad defenses. In two games since, he's gone a combined 37-of-67 for 378 yards and one measly score. Now top wideout Doug Baldwin (groin) may be out. Wilson doesn't have the blocking or the weapons, and simply must be benched.
Running Back
Mark Ingram, NO vs. SF
Ingram has been a beast the last two weeks with 272 yards and three TD on the ground. He's piled up 54 carries, though, so those "fresh" legs may not have the same juice despite the long week to rest. He also managed just 3.3 YPC against a Carolina team that was previously worst in that category. The Niners give up just 3.9 YPC.
Lamar Miller, MIA at DET
Miller is fortunate that the Lions beefy front four will be minus Nick Fairley to eliminate running lanes, but he is not fully healthy himself. A shoulder injury could limit Miller's carries and this is still the second-ranked run D he'll deal with.
Tre Mason, STL at AZ
It's hard to downgrade someone with just two games over 10 carries all year, but it's clear Mason is the preferred back in St. Louis after seeing at least 18 carries in each of their last two competitive games. Facing the third-ranked Cardinals run D, however, you probably don't want to roll the dice this week.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, DET vs. MIA
Tate has been tremendous this year, and Johnson is, well, a human transformer. This Miami defense, however, is red hot and ranks second versus the pass. It completely shut down Chicago's twin towers (just 46 yards) a few weeks back and could have success against this Lions pair if they get after Stafford.
Dez Bryant, DAL at JAC
Despite 10 targets from Weeden last week against the dead last defense in passing yards allowed, Bryant could muster just two catches for 15 yards. A TD salvaged his day, but if Tony Romo (back) sits again he's too risky to start until he displays some chemistry with his old college teammate.
Odell Beckham, NYG at SEA
As legit a talent as Beckham is proving to be, he's not quite up to the task of beating the Seattle secondary on its turf. The Seahawks allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts and have limited the likes of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant at home.
Tight End
Greg Olsen, CAR at PHI
This isn't exactly rocket science. After a season-high 105 yards in Week 7 Olsen has totaled just four catches for 46 yards the last two weeks. To date, the Eagles are the stingiest defense to opposing tight ends.
