This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
This season feels like Level 4 of Super Mario Bros. 3 for Nintendo - the "Giant Land" where Mario is normal but everything else has quadrupled in size. Nothing is as it appeared before you got there.
And just when you think you're getting used to it, another giant Venus Fire Trap pops up to bite you, or tear a patellar tendon, or ACL or ankle or toe or prevent you from hitting a hole even if you saw Kate Upton through it winking and waving you into the end zone. Injuries, suspensions and busts have decimated the fantasy landscape we "knew" just six short weeks ago. "Fantasy Benedict Arnold" a.k.a., Norv Turner, apparently hates his best playmaker this year; the Cowboys really are a run-first team; Keenan Allen and Pierre Garcon are in fact low-volume receivers; Arian Foster is impervious to injury a la 2012 Adrian Peterson; Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball aren't crashing the RB hierarchy anytime soon; and on and on and on. So how do we respond?
It's awfully difficult sometimes to part ways with a talented player midseason just because he's not producing up to preseason expectations, but if two or more of those guys you bet on with picks in the first four or five rounds in August are either suspended, hurt or flat out sucking there's really not much other recourse. There's either a) make a package-deal trade for upside and pray it clicks immediately or b) dump one of these dead weight draft picks for the latest free-agent darling - hello, Mr. Andre Holmes! Regardless, if your roster is loaded with the likes of the Lacy's, Allen's and Cordarrelle Patterson's of the fantasy world (how did this happen to me again?), or you've been riddled by injuries and you're staring at a four or five on the right side of your record, it's time for drastic measures. Some will turn it around for big second halves, but not enough of these bad surprises will hit - or at least not in time - to save your season. So forget what you knew and get onto the wheeling and dealing. Reconstruct that roster as if you were going to draft your team NOW. Who would you want? What will it take to get him? Take the "off limits" tag off your best players and re-build now based on the new circumstances we live in and the schedules that remain. It's time to escape "Giant Land."
Same as always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays. The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADES
Quarterback
Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ
Don't upset Tom Brady. The perpetual chip that has rested on the future Hall-of-Famer's shoulder since draft weekend in 2000 was stirred after the season began with four lackluster performances and a pile of questions. All he's done since is shred good Cincinnati and Buffalo defenses. The Jets and their league-worst 15:1 TD:INT ratio are about to get torched.
Joe Flacco, BAL vs. ATL
Atlanta is allowing a league-worst 8.6 YPA and were just carved by Jay Cutler at home. They're not nearly as good on the road and Flacco has been sensational in two of his last three games (633 yards, eight TD).
Kyle Orton, BUF vs. MIN
New England has the third-ranked pass defense and yet somehow Orton threw for 299 yards, two TD and a 2-point conversion with Sammy Watkins and C.J. Spiller, his most dynamic weapons, totaling 27 yards. Oh yeah, and if that's not convincing enough he pitched it for 308 yards and a score on Detroit's top-ranked unit.
Running Back
Shane Vereen, NE vs. NYJ
Smaller, speedier backs have gashed the Jets for consecutive 100-yard games on the ground and with Stevan Ridley (ACL) out Vereen may get a chance to duplicate that formula.
Justin Forsett, BAL vs. ATL
The two games of single-digit carries look scary in theory, but Forsett is fifth in rushing yards and first by a long shot with 6.4 YPC. He's notched a run of 20-plus in five straight and is slowly taking over a backfield that will greet the worst run defense in football this week.
Branden Oliver, SD vs. KC
The undrafted rookie in San Diego is the real deal. He's racked up more than 300 total yards and three scores the last two weeks and should have little trouble with a KC defense giving up 4.8 YPC.
Chris Ivory, NYJ at NE
The Jets badly need to return to what they do best if they intend to cool a red-hot Tom Brady. Ivory is a grinder who should be able to take advantage of a defense missing its best tackler in Jerod Mayo (knee) as New York tries a ball-control game plan.
Isaiah Crowell, CLE at JAC
After ripping off 7.0 YPC and getting the first goal-line carry of the game last week in a run-first offense, it's clear that the explosive Crowell can be used as a flex given the right matchup. A miserably bad Jaguars team is definitely the right matchup.
Wide Receiver
Andre Holmes/James Jones, OAK vs. AZ
The Cardinals have allowed three 100-yard receivers the last two weeks as they've been drilled for 833 yards through the air. Coming off a career game, and with Derek Carr also looking sharp, Holmes is set up nicely for an encore against a defense that stops the run but doesn't rush the quarterback. Jones, who's quietly had just one game below eight fantasy points, is also flex worthy.
Davante Adams, GB vs. CAR
On 12 total targets Adams has tallied at least seven fantasy points in consecutive games as the talented rookie continues to develop chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. He even topped Randall Cobb last week for catches, targets and yards. Facing a Panthers team that's allowed nine passing scores to wideouts he's a deep league flex.
Brandon LaFell, NE vs. NYJ
With two scores of more than 40 yards in the last three weeks, LaFell is rapidly becoming Tom Brady's big-play guy. He's gotten 26 targets since really taking over a permanent spot in the lineup in Week 3 and now gets to face a depleted Jets secondary that's tied for the most passing scores allowed (15).
Tight End
Jace Amaro, NYJ at NE
With Dont'a Hightower already missing and Mayo going down, Scott Chandler exploded out of nowhere last week to post his first career 100-yard game - in five years. Amaro, a significantly more dynamic receiver, is coming off a 10-catch day that found him in the end zone. With the Jets dying for receivers this screams of an encore.
Jared Cook, STL vs. SEA
For all the things the Seattle defense does well, covering tight ends near the goal line is not one of them. The Hawks have given up seven scores to tight ends in five games. Cook, for what it's worth, led the Rams with 74 yards and 11 targets versus a similarly stingy Niners D last week.
Larry Donnell, NYG at DAL
Donnell has vanished since his three-touchdown monster in Week 4 - two games, one catch, six yards. Victor Cruz' targets must go somewhere, however, and Dallas has allowed five tight ends to find the end zone while giving up an average of 71 yards per game to the position.
Dwayne Allen, IND vs. CIN
No defense has allowed more yards to tight ends than Cincinnati (473). And that's in five games since they've already had their bye. Allen, a favorite target of Andrew Luck's in the red zone, should reap the benefit of a matchup made in fantasy heaven.
Jordan Reed, WAS vs. TEN
First game back from injury, and he's already leading the team in targets (11 versus Arizona). Next up is a Titans defense that's allowed five touchdowns to the position AND just let Clay Harbor burn them for 91 yards and a score. Sign me up.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Austin Davis, STL vs. SEA
After selling him harder than his mother might have last week against a tough 49ers defense, I may need to backpedal a bit on Davis' candidacy for fantasy breakout player of the year. The Seahawks defense, packing pride on this road trip, likely will concur.
Drew Brees, NO at DET
No Jimmy Graham. On the road. Top-ranked pass defense. Threw three picks at home versus the Bucs?!?! Uh oh.
Running back
Khiry Robinson/Mark Ingram, NO at DET
Before the hand injury, Ingram was playing like a must-start. Without him around Robinson was steadily gaining that status. Together - and versus the No. 2 run defense at that - neither can be trusted.
Jerick McKinnon, MIN at BUF
This is more of a reminder not to get cute after McKinnon seemed to overtake Matt Asiata as Minnesota's feature back. McKinnon is a dynamic athlete, but the Bills are a brutally tough run defense that's yet to allow a rushing score while giving up the fewest yards per carry and game this season (2.8 and 67.5 respectively).
C.J. Spiller, BUF vs. MIN
The Doug Marrone administration simply doesn't know how to use an electric talent like Spiller's and until the touches grow or they figure out an effective way to get him in space he belongs squarely on the bench. No scores since Week 2 and only one game with more than 4.0 YPC just isn't cutting it.
Wide Receiver
Pierre Garcon, WAS vs. TEN
It's official. Garcon is not a starting fantasy option until otherwise notified. Sure, he comforted owners last week with a late touchdown, but in five games with Kirk Cousins under center Garcon has more than 31 yards or six targets just once. In fact, those other four games totaled just a pathetic nine catches for 94 yards. Now I'm going to go have a good cry for trading Ahmad Bradshaw for him after Week 3.
Keenan Allen, SD vs. KC
See Garcon, Pierre. Minus a 135-yard outburst versus the lowly Jaguars, Allen has been a ghost in the San Diego offense despite leading the team in targets. Something just isn't right for him, and the 161 yards he's tallied in the other five games make him legitimate waiver fodder. It's time to give up.
Marques Colston/Brandin Cooks, NO at DET
Jimmy Graham (shoulder) may be out, but I wouldn't go expecting an immediate windfall from these wideouts. The Lions have allowed a stingy two TD to wide receivers this year and even held Jordy Nelson - the league leader in receiving yardage - to a season-low 59 yards.
Rueben Randle/Odell Beckham, NYG at DAL
If this pair couldn't put much together versus a Philly defense that entered last week among the worst in the league versus the pass, how do you think they'll fair versus a Cowboys unit that's limited wideouts to two scores on the season? Although Victor Cruz (knee) is out, this pair may not benefit immediately.
Tight End
Antonio Gates, SD vs. KC
Full disclosure: this is reaching just to find a tight end to "downgrade" this week. Gates has found the end zone six times in six games, including three the last two weeks. The Chiefs, however, have held three of the game's best - Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski and Delanie Walker - all less than 40 yards. Of course, each scored.
