This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
Bye weeks are here. And they're here in a mean way. Six teams get to rest this week (one of two times that happens this year), leaving a slew of talent unavailable. After the week of the upgraded running backs, of which Knile Davis and Lamar Miller were the stars, it's definitely a week to go receiver if you're replacing a flex starter. Running back is particularly slammed by the bye with Marshawn Lynch, Giovani Bernard, Montee Ball, Zac Stacy and Andre Ellington on the fantasy bench. So this is the week to just make sure your RB slots are as covered as can be and look at the deeper crop of wideouts for any flex action.
Although the bye week is tough and may require some flex spot leaps of faith, there is a pretty sweet silver lining on closer inspection. Despite being one of the worst in terms of lost star power, the schedule is kind enough to leave few unfriendly matchups in its wake. The Bengals and Cardinals are tops in scoring defense, while the Seahawks are, well, the Seahawks. So three of probably the five best defenses in football are not slowing down your reserve options. In fact, it was difficult to find many players to downgrade, and as you'll see, only the tight ends I settled on are true weekly starters these days. Although there's plenty of talent missing in action, there should be plenty of scoring to go around in a week when that one key flex could be all the difference.
With that out of the way, here's a slightly edited version of the premise that will be repeated every week: this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved so far - looking at you, Mr. Lacy and Mr. Allen), while those being downgraded generally are lineup mainstays (except this week; thank you in advance, generous defenses). The designations are simply a guide to make those close calls easier.
UPGRADE
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick, SF vs. PHI
Kaepernick has yet to top 250 yards passing and has as many turnovers as touchdowns this season (four). On the positive side, he's completing 70.2 percent of his throws, could get Vernon Davis back this week (ankle) and draws a Philly defense that's allowed three passing scores in consecutive games.
Eli Manning, NYG at WAS
The Ben McAdoo system is starting to click for Manning and his receivers. He's made progress in consecutive weeks, and Victor Cruz is starting to look like the salsa-dancing dynamo who exploded on the scene in 2011. Against a Washington secondary that just lost leader DeAngelo Hall (Achilles), look for the improvement to continue.
Blake Bortles, JAC at SD
Bortles simply has the "it" factor. With the mobility to extend plays and pick up yards with his feet, and an arm to make tough throws, the rookie will manufacture the numbers to warrant starts in two-QB leagues, especially when the Jags hit garbage time.
Running back
Eddie Lacy, GB at CHI
It's to that point where Lacy is another miserable performance away from a legitimately questionable fantasy option. He's not getting running lanes and doing nothing to create them himself - like teammate James Starks is. Facing a Chicago run defense allowing 5.0 YPC should cure what ails the Packers, Lacy and his owners, however.
Donald Brown, SD vs. JAC
With Danny Woodhead (leg) on IR and Ryan Mathews' body failing him again, Brown has a clear stranglehold of the Bolts' backfield (seriously, 36 touches last week). And that measly 2.0 YPC against Buffalo shouldn't scare anyone away with Jacksonville's last place run defense in town to fix it.
Lamar Miller, MIA at OAK (in London)
Miller's burst makes him an ideal fit for Bill Lazor's system and he proved it by ripping Kansas City last week for 7.2 YPC and 132 total yards. In case you missed it, the Raiders are 31st against the run and just lost hard-hitting safety Tyvon Branch - their leading tackler - for the season.
Darren McFadden, OAK vs. MIA (in London)
McFadden has totaled at least 65 yards in consecutive weeks and should have scored in both games (the game-tying TD against New England was called back). With Maurice Jones-Drew's hand still not 100 percent, and the Miami players openly questioning their defensive scheme after being battered by Davis and the Chiefs, "Run DMC" may be in line for his best week of the year.
Doug Martin, TB at PIT
The Steelers run defense only looked better on paper last week because of the blowout nature of the game and injuries to a decimated Panthers backfield. It's easy to question Martin given the knee injury and how much better Bobby Rainey has looked. But don't forget that Martin is the team's "bell cow," and Rainey has lost three fumbles this season already. "The Muscle Hamster" is at least worth a flex.
Wide Receiver
Steve Smith, SR., BAL vs. CAR
Throw out the 10 targets per game stat, the 290 yards in three weeks, the Dennis Pitta (hip) loss that should mean even more reliance on perhaps the league's pound-for-pound toughest player with a chip on his shoulder bigger than his 5-foot-9 frame. Ignore it. All of it. Smith dedicated 13 years to Carolina where he piled up over 12,000 yards before the Panthers dumped him. The man is angry. It's payback time. The end.
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. BUF
This has nothing to do with matchup, though the Bills are 26th in passing yards allowed. No, starting Hopkins is simply about paying attention to a player on the rise. The second-year playmaker has some of the stickiest hands in the league and has posted a score or 100 yards every week. Poised. For. Stardom.
Allen Robinson, JAC at SD
This is really stretching your faith, that's for sure, but Robinson has topped 70 yards in consecutive weeks and is coming off a 10-target affair. Bortles will be a significant upgrade over Chad Henne, and Robinson is the Jaguars most complete wideout with size, athleticism and toughness after the catch.
Jordan Matthews, PHI at SF
Chip Kelly drafted Matthews to present a mismatch out of the slot for smaller nickel corners and slower linebackers. It worked to perfection when he caught two TD's working out of the slot in the red zone last week. FYI, the 49ers have allowed the second-most passing scores in the league, six of which have gone to wide receivers.
Keenan Allen, SD vs. JAC
If there were ever a week for Allen to return to his rookie form after three straight underwhelming performances, this would be it. The Jags have allowed a league-high 306 yards per game passing. Of course, the caveat here would also be that they've been shredded by tight ends.
Tight End
Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green, SD vs. JAC
You were probably already going to start Gates despite last week's clunker, but considering Green as well would not be crazy despite his slow start. Gates is less than 100 percent healthy (I know, shocker), and Green took advantage last week with 64 yards on six targets. As it so happens, Jacksonville has allowed four tight ends to pile up 268 combined yards, each with a score.
Brandon Myers, TB at PIT
The Steelers have allowed an average of 72 yards and a score per game to tight ends and will be without rangy linebacker Ryan Shazier (knee). The Bucs are thin at wideout and Mike Glennon likes his tight end (54 completions to Tim Wright last year). Hello Julius Thomas' bye-week replacement.
DOWNGRADE
Quarterback
Tom Brady, NE at KC
Brady has not topped 250 yards or thrown multiple scores in a game this season and that includes games in which he attempted 56 and 37 passes against teams with a combined 1-5 record. Until he gets some kind of vertical threat, don't expect Brady-like numbers.
Cam Newton, CAR at BAL
The Ravens aren't doing anything special to disrupt passers, but they're bending without breaking much in the secondary, allowing a league-low two passing scores. With Newton banged up there's more downside than upside this week.
Running Back
Chris Johnson, NYJ vs. DET
Teammate Chris Ivory is averaging 2.2 more yards per carry and a whopping 7.2 more yards per catch on almost an identical number of touches. While Ivory's size and goal line ownership keep him a solid option, the man formerly known as CJ2K is going to get swallowed up by a Lions front four that has the team second against the run.
Joique Bell/Reggie Bush, DET at NYJ
As if the timeshare weren't enough hit to their values, the Jets top-ranked run D is allowing just 2.8 YPC and 55 yards per game. New York held Matt Forte and Lacy to a combined 26 for 76 on the ground and should have little trouble with this Lions' pair on their home turf.
Wide Receiver
Marques Colston, NO at DAL
The Cowboys have been surprisingly stingy to opposing wideouts, with only two touchdowns and no 100-yard games allowed to the position. Colston has caught just two passes on five targets the last two games, and while one of those was in the end zone, he simply cannot be started until his role increases.
Eric Decker/Jeremy Kerley, NYJ vs. DET
Decker or Kerley will be the Jets' top receiving option depending on how Decker's hamstring behaves before Sunday. In any normal week the top receiving threat for a team - even the Jets - should be looked at as a fantasy option. However, facing a Lions defense that can pressure with four and drop seven into coverage, this is the week to ignore Gang Green's pass attack as a whole. Just see what Detroit did to Aaron Rodgers and Co.
Tight End
Zach Ertz, PHI at SF
Ertz saw a season-low three targets in a pass-happy affair last Sunday. Some of that was a limited number of snaps that could be attributed to a minor knee ailment, some perhaps to the emergence of Matthews in the slot. Either way, San Fran has allowed just one tight end score this year while struggling to cover wideouts.
Greg Olsen, CAR at BAL
Given that Olsen is tied for second in targets among tight ends and hasn't posted below 69 yards in a game with two scores thus far, you're clearly not benching him. A down week may be in order, however, against a Ravens defense that's allowed the second fewest points to the position.
