This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
It's the last Thursday of the regular season. To celebrate, we have a full slate free of any talk of tanking. Only one of the 12 teams playing is out of the playoff hunt, the Nets, and they don't control their own draft pick.
TARGET
MIN at DEN: This is an easy call. Over the last 10 games, these are the two worst teams in the league in per-possession defense. Furthermore, it's the game with the highest stakes. The Timberwolves and Nuggets are currently seventh and ninth in the West, respectively, and separated by only one game. A Nuggets win would have these teams tied at the playoff cut line with three games to go.
AVOID
GS at IND: Looking at the standings, these two teams are the most comfortable Thursday. The Warriors are locked in as the two-seed, while the Pacers are increasingly likely to finish as the five-seed. The Warriors boast a top-10 defense, and the Pacers are the slowest-paced team in the league over the past 10 games.
GUARDS
Eric Bledsoe, MIL vs. BKN ($7,900): Bledsoe has scored at least 34.75 DKFP in eight of his last 10 games, including back-to-back 50-plus DKFP performances over the weekend. He is averaging 35.6 minutes over his last five games, and the matchup is against one of the worst defenses in action Thursday – after the Timberwolves and Nuggets, the Nets are the worst per-possession defense over the last 10 games.
Shabazz Napier, POR at HOU ($5,300):Damian Lillard (ankle) is not expected to play Thursday. When Lillard missed seven of nine games around New Years, Napier stepped in as the primary beneficiary. In those seven games, Napier averaged 18.0 points and 4.9 assists per game while never playing fewer than 33 minutes.
Joe Johnson, HOU vs. POR ($3,600): Another injury fill-in, as Ryan Anderson (ankle) will be out Thursday. The Rockets have been dealing with so many short-term injuries the last few weeks that it's difficult to discern who benefits most from each individual absence, but someone (or some-two) needs to take over Anderson's 20-plus minutes and 5.1 three-point attempts per game. Johnson's price is already low, and he's well rested after seeing only limited action in the last two games. However, over a five-game stretch that ended last weekend, Johnson scored at least 19.75 DKFP in each contest while averaging 27.4 minutes per night.
FORWARDS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. BKN ($11,100): Frankly, I'd rather spend up for the center duel in the Timberwolves-Nuggets game. But if you're not interested in either of those two, Antetokounmpo is probably the next-best thing. Over the last 10 games, the Nets have been absolutely atrocious rebounders, with a rebound percentage below 47 percent (most seasons, almost every team falls between 48 and 52 percent). That's a good sign for the league's best rebounding non-center.
Andrew Wiggins, MIN at DEN ($6,700): Since I expect this game to be the highest scoring of the evening, it only makes sense that I recommend the player likely to lead the game in field goal attempts. Since the All-Star break, and Jimmy Butler's (knee; doubtful) injury in the first game back, Wiggins has stepped up. His points, rebounds, assists and field goal attempts have all increased. It's important to take defense-vs.-position data with a grain of salt, but the Nuggets are the third-most favorable opponent for a small forward.
P.J. Tucker, HOU vs. POR ($4,200): Tucker is, at least partially, a hedge in case Joe Johnson isn't the biggest beneficiary with Ryan Anderson out. Tucker is already starting, so there isn't a ton of room available for his minutes to increase. The counter-balance to that is that Tucker's minutes are safer, and Tucker is already taking a lot of threes each game, so his ceiling and his floor start considerably higher. Tucker has at least 19 DKFP in three of his past four games.
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at DEN ($9,800): Both Towns and Nikola Jokic ($10,400) are good plays in Thursday's preview of the fight for the 2022 All-NBA 2nd team center spot (#TrustTheProcess). Both face an offense-first center who is improving-but-not-good-yet on defense. Towns is averaging 54.1 DKFP over his last five games, while Jokic is averaging 56.4. If you're someone who runs multiple lineups, I'd recommend getting exposure to both. However, if forced to choose, I'd go with Towns for the cheaper price, the higher ceiling, and the easier opponent.
Paul Millsap, DEN vs. MIN ($6,900): Over his last five games, Millsap is averaging 41.4 DKFP – a substantial profit at this price. As mentioned at the top of the article, I want extra exposure to this game, especially among starters. Millsap's workload is also increasing. In the first month after returning from his lengthy wrist injury, he averaged only 27.7 minutes per game. Over the last five, that has increased to 34.8.
Zach Collins, POR at HOU ($3,600): Traditional big men are frequently played off the floor against the Rockets, which means I'm aggressively fading Jusuf Nurkic. With Ed Davis (ankle) still out, Collins and Meyers Leonard ($3,000) are the two players most likely to benefit if Nurkic's night is cut short.
