This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Thursday's five-game slate only includes two teams that are definitely tanking – the Bulls and the Kings. That's good, because DFS is best when teams are playing to win. There is still some room for late-season wackiness, especially as several injured players are potentially slated to return, but overall this looks like a more-reasonable-than-not kind of night.
TARGET
WAS at DET: At this point in the season, I try to target games where both teams are still playing for something. That applies to two games Thursday, but the Thunder-Spurs matchup is problematic for reasons described below. The Pistons' defense has been great lately, but the Wizards' defense has struggled.
AVOID
OKC at SA: Both teams rank in the top 10 in per-possession defense over the past 10 games, and the Spurs are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league. This is a pivotal game between two proud franchises, either of which could miss the playoffs this season. This is likely to be a playoff-like game, and in the playoffs, games traditionally slow down even more, while defense picks up.
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC at SA ($11,400): Basing analysis on a player's perceived mental state is never ideal, but it feels inescapable here. The Thunder and Spurs are two of seven teams fighting for five playoff spots, and it's not clear who will be on the outside. Win or lose, Westbrook tends to dominate the box score in these games. If you'd rather avoid the pop psychology, then focus on Westbrooks' insanely high production floor – he's scored at least 46.5 DKFP in each of his last 10 games. Among healthy guards, Westbrook is averaging 15 DKFP more over the last five games than the second place player.
Dejounte Murray, SA vs. OKC ($5,800): A corollary to the Westbrook recommendation – when Westbrook devotes too much attention to offense, his defense slips, and he's already having a down year defensively. Murray has at least 27 DKFP in three of his last five games, and in five of his past eight. Murray is averaging 10.1 points and 6.7 rebounds since the All-Star break.
Nick Young, GS vs. MIL ($4,900): With both Steph Curry (knee) and Klay Thompson (thumb) out, Young and Quinn Cook have stepped up as major contributors. While Cook's ($6,400) cost has skyrocketed, Young's is still a solid discount. Young is averaging 34.9 minutes per game since Thompson's injury, racking up 15.6 points and 3.1 rebounds. It's a tough defensive matchup, but the price is low enough that Young is worth it anyway.
FORWARDS
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at GS ($10,600): Antetokounmpo has scored at least 56 DKFP in four of his last seven games, and he's facing off against an undermanned Warriors squad. The Warriors are likely to have Kevin Durant and Draymond Green back in the lineup, which is bad news for any opponent, but even with those guys back the Warriors are still without two starters and potentially a few more reserves. With the exception of a game Antetokounmpo left early due to injury, he's scored at least 20 points in each of his last nine, and only once scored less than 43 DKFP once.
Skal Labissiere, SAC vs. IND ($5,200): Labissiere has logged three straight games of exactly 30 minutes, scoring at least 27 DKFP in each. The Kings have been flirting with the NBA's anti-tanking boundaries for months, so they are susceptible to seemingly random rotational shifts. That said, Labissiere is playing well and the team is invested in continuing to give him opportunities.
David Nwaba, CHI at MIA ($4,600): Nwaba's minutes took a dive after the NBA formally warned the Bulls about resting healthy starters (cough tanking cough). However, after barely a week, Nwaba's minutes are back. He's averaged 27.3 over the past four games, and before a down shooting night Tuesday he was averaging 11.3 points and 5.0 rebounds during that same span.
CENTERS
Draymond Green, GS vs. MIL ($8,300): Players' salaries typically drop after they miss a few games, but Green's dropoff is even more than most. His salary is down $1,300 since his last game. He was on a solid run before getting ill, double-doubling in back-to-back 50 DKFP games. With the Warriors' still shorthanded, he'll likely have to take on a larger role.
John Henson, MIL at GS ($5,000): Throughout his entire career, Henson has never been a player who saw a ton of minutes. However, since the New Years, that is finally changing. It's becoming even more pronounced since the All-Star break, playing at least 30 minutes in more than one-third of his games. In his increased role, he has topped 22 DKFP in eight of his last nine games.
