This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TARGET
PHO at OKC: This game looks like a blowout, but it has Thursday's highest projected total score by far. With both of these teams, even in a blowout, we have a decent idea who might rack up fantasy points.
AVOID
PHI at MIA: Both of these teams run at average paces and have defenses inside the top 10 in points allowed per possession over the past 10 games – among teams playing Thursday, they rank second and third. Their stout defenses are a large part of why this game has the lowest projected total score on the slate.
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC vs. PHO ($11,800): Westbrook good, Suns bad.
A lengthy conversation with my editor revealed that apparently my blurbs need more than four words – however compelling those four words may be. Well, the Suns' per-possession defense is the worst in the league, and the Warriors are the only faster-paced team to play Thursday. Their rebound percentage is underwater. Meanwhile, Westbrook averages more than 10 DKFP more than anyone else on this slate (and most of those other guys don't get to play the Suns). Westbrook is averaging 33.8 points over the last four games. This game is effectively a must-win for the Thunder in the West's competitive playoff race.
Josh Richardson, MIA vs. PHI ($5,300): This salary is surprisingly cheap for Richardson, who has cost between $300 and $1,000 more in eight of his past 10 games. He's scored at least 27 DKFP in three of his past four games, and in five of his past seven. While the 76ers defense is good – especially their starting unit – J.J. Redick is the unit's weakest link, and Richardson is likely to spend a fair amount of time guarded by Redick.
Jamal Crawford, MIN vs. BOS ($3,900): There is risk here. The matchup against the Celtics' wings is rough, and Crawford was ice-cold in two of his last three games. But there is still a lot to like. Despite the poor shooting (2-11 one night and 1-7 the other), his minutes didn't budge. Crawford is averaging a steady 26.0 per game since the All-Star break, even when he's not playing well. Furthermore, despite the poor shooting, Crawford still put up enough non-scoring numbers to have salvageable fantasy games. He's attempted double-digit field goals in seven of his last eight games, scoring at least 14.5 DKFP in all seven. He's very cheap, and he has a strong floor. When his shots are going in, he's a source of strong fantasy value.
FORWARDS
Ben Simmons, PHI at MIA ($8,000): The Heat do not have an answer for Ben Simmons. That's OK, not many teams do – it's hard to guard a point guard bigger than many centers. 31-year-old Goran Dragic, a point guard-sized point guard never known for his defensive prowess, would be a disaster against Simmons. The Heat will probably adapt, but Simmons will have the advantage regardless of who guards him. Add to that the fact that this is Simmons' second-lowest salary in almost a month, and this starts looking like a great value play. He's topped 40 DKFP in four of his past six games.
Nemanja Bjelica, MIN vs. BOS ($5,200): Bjelica stepped in as the starting small forward after Jimmy Butler (knee) got hurt in the first game after the All-Star break. Bjelica is already getting the full Tom Thibodeau starter treatment – and by that I mean tons and tons of minutes. Bjelica averaged 36.5 minutes over the past four games, scoring 10.0 points and grabbing 7.8 rebounds. He's averaged at least 20 DKFP in each of his four starts, including one game of 26.5 DKFP and another of 35 DKFP.
Joe Harris, BKN at CHA ($3,900): Harris continues to see more than 20 minutes per game, even as D'Angelo Russell's minutes have gotten back above 30 per game. At this workload, Harris' fantasy floor seems to be roughly the low teens, high enough to keep a roster competitive. In four of his last six games he scored double-digit points and at least 20 DKFP. Harris isn't someone to build a lineup around, but he's a very workable option if you're looking to save salary cap space.
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. BOS ($9,300):Al Horford hasn't inspired Celtics fans to grab their pitchforks yet, but he's got them searching the garage to make sure they're ready when the time comes. Horford has struggled for weeks, and he's not likely to be particularly effective against Towns. Other players who'll spend time failing to defend Towns include Aron Baynes, who averages only 17.8 minutes per game, and Greg Monroe, who has always been better at offense than defense. Before getting ejected with a second technical foul in his last game, Towns had scored at least 40 DKFP in seven games straight, including three games above 60 DKFP.
Steven Adams, OKC vs. PHO ($6,900): Adams good, Suns bad. Wait. I tried that already. But the point is still true – the Suns are one of the most favorable fantasy matchups in the league, and this is a game the Thunder cannot afford to lose. None of the Suns' overstocked collection of big men are near Adams' ability level, and only Tyson Chandler is remotely comparable as a rebounder. This is a great matchup and a fair price.
Greg Monroe, BOS at MIN ($4,400): Speaking of Greg Monroe… His real-life defense may be subpar, but his offense and his rebounding are both solid. He's averaging 14.0 points and 6.3 rebounds in 19.7 minutes over his past three games. The Celtics are giving him an expanded role, and he is showing that he can handle the work. As Horford's slump has continued, Monroe's extra offense has been necessary.
