This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TARGET
BKN at SAC: These two defenses rank 28th and 29th in points allowed per possession over the last 10 games. Not a lot of effective defense in this one.
AVOID
LAL at MIA: None of these games are all that negative for DFS, and this one should be relatively fast-paced. However, this game features the eighth and ninth best per-possession defenses over that 10-game span. That makes them the second and third best defenses on this slate.
GUARDS
Damian Lillard, POR vs. MIN ($9,400): On small slates it's good to roster some players with very high ceilings, and Lillard hasn't scored fewer than 34 DKFP since before the trade deadline. But Lillard is averaging 36.2 points over his last six, so he'd be on our radar no matter what size the slate is. He's shooting better than 50 percent during that span, and he's doing it against teams on opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, including games against the Warriors and Jazz on one side, and the Suns and Kings on the other.
Goran Dragic, MIA vs. LAL ($7,400): Dragic will probably have to spend a lot of time guarded by Lonzo Ball, who is a solid defender. However, at least one-third of Dragic's minutes are likely to coincide with Isaiah Thomas, one of the worst defenders in the league. The Lakers' fast pace combined with the likelihood of some time against Thomas makes Dragic an appealing option, especially on this small slate.
Buddy Hield, BKN at SAC ($5,500): I typically find that a player's ownership is much lower after a bad game, even if that poor performance is surrounded by several good ones. Hield is coming off a 2-for-11 shooting night where he matched his second-lowest scoring total of 2018. That came against a Trail Blazers backcourt that is far stingier than it gets credit for, while Thursday Hield gets to face possibly the most favorable opponent on the slate.
FORWARDS
LeBron James, CLE vs. PHI ($11,900): You'll pay a hefty premium in order to afford James, but there are so few high-end options Thursday that you'll almost have to consider him. His average of 61.7 DKFP over the last five games is more than 10 DKFP better than Thursday's runner-up (Ben Simmons). On top of that, the Cavaliers have the highest projected team score on the slate.
Julius Randle, LAL at MIA ($7,500): Randle has exploded out of the All-Star break, averaging 32.7 minutes and double-doubling in all three games – well, technically one was a triple-double. Many have believed in Randles' abilities all season, even while inconsistent minutes was damaging his fantasy value. Finally appearing to settle into a steady role, his fantasy viability is skyrocketing. He has at least 28 DKFP in each of his last 10 games, including at least 35 in eight of those.
Nemanja Bjelica, MIN at POR ($5,300): Bjelica's salary has already risen nearly two grand since Jimmy Butler's (knee) injury. Nonetheless, he remains slightly underpriced. He's scored at least 22 DKFP while playing at least 33 minutes in both of the Timberwolves' games since the injury. In the second game, with the exception of a few extra steals, Bjelica played 34 minutes and almost perfectly matched his season-long per-36 averages. That led to 33.75 DKFP, which would be a substantial profit even at this elevated price.
CENTERS
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at POR ($9,600): Before Butlers' injury, Towns was already averaging 35.1 minutes, so there's not much room for an increase there. That said, Butlers' injury still has a big impact on Towns' value. Towns' usage rate has risen with Butler sidelined, despite that both games have been borderline blowouts. He's double-doubled in five straight games
Jarrett Allen, BKN at SAC ($4,900): Facing probably the worst defense on the slate is obviously an advantage in DFS. Another advantage is the Nets' weak frontcourt depth – all of their other centers combined for just 12 minutes total over the last two games. Since the All-Star break, Allen is averaging 29.3 DKFP.
