This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
With only four games Thursday, the scores needed to win contests are likely to be relatively low. This could get exacerbated by the fact that most of the teams in action play at a below-average pace.
A reminder: the "target" and "avoid" sections at the top are not iron-clad rules – they are suggestions and are best used as a tiebreaker when comparing two players head to head. Due to prices and matchups, I am recommending a lot of players from the "avoid" game, and very few from the "target" game. Sometimes that's just how things work out.
TARGET
NY at DEN: Though both teams play slower than league average, both defenses are also among the bottom half of the league in per-possession scoring over the last 10 games – the Knicks, in fact, are the third-worst in that period.
AVOID
SAC at MIA: The projected score for this game is barely over 200 (200.5), which is likely to be the lowest on the slate by far. Over the last 10 games, the Heat are the slowest team in the NBA, and their defense allows the fewest points per game of any team playing Thursday.
GUARDS
Jamal Murray, DEN vs. NY ($6,700): Rostering someone at their peak cost is usually not ideal, but Murray is red-hot, and his price is still very fair. He's coming off of back-to-back 30-point games, shooting a combined 64.3 percent from behind the arc. Some managers might be put off by the two prior games, when he scored a combined nine points and 17.5 DKFP. However, if either pair is fluky, it was probably the down games. Since Christmas, those down games are the only two times Murray has scored less than 11 points, and they are just the second and third time he played less than 32 minutes. Against the very bad Knicks defense, he has a good chance to continue his hot streak.
Wayne Ellington, MIA vs. SAC ($5,300): Not only has Ellington emerged as the Heat's best three-point shooter, but he's become one of the best deep threats in the league. That's particularly attractive against the Kings, who allow opponents the highest three-point percentage in the league. In his last 10 games, Ellington has not dipped below 15 DKFP, and he's broken 20 DKFP in each of his last five.
Raymond Felton, OKC vs. WAS ($3,400): Felton is a low-minutes player, and there is always a risk in that. He's played fewer than 20 minutes in seven games straight. However, finding a solid player this cheap can help differentiate your roster while simultaneously freeing you to invest in any of the really high-priced options on the slate. Felton has double-digit DKFP in each of his last 10 games, including eight above 16 DKFP. His limited role is crucial in the Thunder's rotation, so while he doesn't play a ton of minutes, there is very little risk of his role decreasing (barring injury), which is usually the main concern with a low-minutes player.
FORWARDS
Draymond Green, GS vs. MIN ($7,500): Green has only one game with less than 31 DKFP over his last 10, and he's gone above 43 DKFP six times. The Warriors' all-around contributor can provide value from literally every category, which is part of why his Fantasy floor is so high. On a small slate, Green's high floor at an easily affordable price makes him one of the best cash games options of the night.
Enes Kanter, NY at DEN ($6,000):Kristaps Porzingis (knee) and Kyle O'Quinn (calf) are both questionable for Thursday. If either are unable to play, Kanter's 25.3 minutes per game average becomes more like a minutes floor. While Willy Hernangomez ($3,600) would also be a big beneficiary of any potential absence, he would not get all of the benefits. With both Porzingis and O'Quinn out Tuesday, Kanter added 16 points to nine rebounds and five assists on his way to 33.25 DKFP. Even if both players are available, Kanter is still a worthwhile play for his high floor – he has at least 30 DKFP in four straight and in eight of his last nine.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC at MIA ($4,900): Bogdanovic is one of the big beneficiaries of the Kings' new "rest two veterans" policy, though mostly because it allows us to have more confidence in the consistency of his role. His streak of eight-straight games with at least 25 DKFP began before that policy was implemented (the streak ended Tuesday). Tuesday was the first time in 2018 that he failed to score double-digit points.
CENTERS
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. SAC ($8,400): This is just an excellent matchup for Whiteside – a giant, physical, rebound-savvy center against the Kings' comparatively tiny frontcourt. They just don't have a player who can go head to head with Whiteside without either being outplayed, overpowered, or both. He's on a four-game streak of at least 13 rebounds per game, and he's topped 22 points in three of those.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC at MIA ($6,500): While Cauley-Stein is no match for Whiteside, he's still a good player putting up good numbers and at a good price. He's played at least 33 minutes in five of his last six, and he's topped 30 DKFP in each of those five (the Kings announced their "rest two veterans" policy five games ago). The only top-tier centers he's faced in this stretch were Steven Adams and Marc Gasol. Cauley-Stein struggled against Gasol, but put up solid numbers against Adams despite getting out-rebounded 13-7. Cauley-Stein has a solid floor, and he's a good cash game hedge if you aren't completely sold on Whiteside.
Patrick Patterson, OKC vs. WAS ($3,000): Very similar to his teammate Felton, above, Patterson is a low minutes guy who has nonetheless provided decent fantasy production lately, making him a viable play if you want to save salary cap space. He has at least 11 DKFP in five games straight.
