This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Thursday presents an interesting four-game slate. All four games include one team whose pace ranks in the top-seven over the past 10 games, while the other team's pace ranks among the slower half of the league. In every game, the teams will struggle to control the pace. Many daily contests might get decided based on which managers correctly anticipate which teams will win those internal battles. The four fast teams are the 76ers, Clippers, Lakers, and Raptors.
If you want to play the Celtics-76ers games, make sure to get that lineup card in early – the game is in London, and starts at 3 pm EST. If you miss it, DraftKings is also running slates with just the three games that start after 8 pm EST.
TARGET
LAC at SAC: The Kings are the worst per-possession defense in the league over the last 10 games, while the Clippers are a below-average rebounding team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the league.
AVOID
BOS at PHI: Over the last 10 games, these teams rank first and second in points allowed per possession. Additionally, their offenses both rank in the bottom third of the league in points scored per possession. This looks likely to be a low-scoring defensive battle.
GUARDS
DeMar DeRozan, TOR vs. CLE ($8,800):Kyle Lowry (back) is expected to miss Thursday's game, leaving DeRozan as the primary focus of the Raptors' offense. DeRozan attempts an extra 10.4 shots and 2.8 threes per-36 minutes when Lowry is on the sidelines. Furthermore, though logically we'd assume that DeRozan would receive more defensive attention in those situations, his field goal percentage is almost unchanged, while his three-point shooting improves and he commits fewer turnovers. Given the sorry state of the Cavaliers' defense, this is an excellent spot for DeRozan. Delon Wright ($5,100) saw little change in minutes with Lowry out Tuesday, but his scoring increases by 6.7 points per-36 minutes when Lowry is off the floor, so he is also an option Thursday.
Manu Ginobili, SA at LAL, ($4,400): Ginobili sat out the Spurs last game for rest. Considering that he's 40-years old, that extra rest is helpful, especially ahead of Thursday's matchup with the fast-paced Lakers. Ginobili is coming off back-to-back 20-point games, and he has at least 22 DKFP in eight of his last 10 games. One added bonus of playing Ginobili – he's been so much fun to watch this season, so having an extra reason to watch and root for him is added fun.
Norman Powell, TOR vs. CLE ($3,400): Speaking of players who will benefit from Lowry's presumed absence, Powell played 24 minutes in Tuesday's game with Lowry on the sideline. He put in a hodge-podge stat line, but it got the job done, adding up to a total of 21.0 DKFP. I'll devote the remaining space in this blurb to more "target the Cavaliers' dreadful defense" stats… The Cavaliers allow the most assists per game in the league, and they force the eighth-fewest turnovers. They are in the bottom half of the league in three-point field goal percentage allowed, and bottom third in overall field goal percentage allowed. Among teams with a winning record, they allow the most points per game.
FORWARDS
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA at LAL ($8,500): Aldridge's salary is $1,100 more than it was last week, but that's what happens when you score back-to-back 30-point games, netting above 50 DKFP both nights. Over his last seven games, he scored above 40 DKFP five times – and that doesn't include a 39.75 DKFP showing the day after Christmas. Between his hot play and the favorable matchup against the Lakers, Aldridge is a solid stable high-floor option.
Davis Bertans, SA at LAL ($4,500):Kawhi Leonard (shoulder) has missed three of the Spurs last four games. In those three contests, Bertans is averaging 30.0 minutes and 16.3 points per game. Bertans has scored at least 22 DKFP in four games straight. The Lakers are actually one of the better teams in terms of opponent three-point field goal percentage, but their system also leads to opposing teams ranking near the top of the league in three-pointers attempted. Bertans has 15 threes over his last five games.
Pascal Siakam, TOR vs. CLE ($4,100): In addition to Lowry, the Raptors will be without Serge Ibaka (suspension) Thursday. It's not clear who will benefit the most from Ibaka's absence, but Saikam is one of the players likely to see at least a minor boost in minutes. Siakam is already a borderline fantasy option, averaging 5.1 points and 4.5 rebounds along with a spattering of assists, steals, and blocks in 18.4 minutes per game. He' not always a good fantasy play, but he does have at least 16 DKFP in six of his last 10 games, including three with at least 21. The probable boost in role makes him a good discount choice.
CENTERS
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at SAC ($8,400): Jordan's rebounding this season has been remarkable. He has at least 15 rebounds in 23 games already, or in 59 percent of his games this season. His floor is very strong, scoring at least 30 DKFP in nine of his past 10. In that time period, he has four 20-10 double-doubles – and for two of those, the "20" refers to rebounds. The Kings are a below-average rebounding team, and none of their big men have the size and skill to outmaneuver Jordan in the paint.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC vs. LAC ($6,300): As a whole, the Kings rotation this season has been highly inconsistent. However, Cauley-Stein is one of the few exceptions of players' whose workload has been relatively consistent. He's averaging 28.7 minutes per game since he last missed time (he missed three games in early December). He's scored at least 30 DKFP in seven of his past nine games, and that alone is frequently enough for break-even value on a slate this small.
