This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
There are only two NBA games Thursday. With such a tiny slate, it is imperative that you make sure to check for breaking news in the hour before games start. If there is a discounted player that benefits from a late lineup change, missing out on that value could submarine your entire lineup – with so few players in the pool, the beneficiary of the late lineup change could end up on more than half of lineups.
Furthermore, DraftKings rules require you to include players from both games. The "target" and "avoid" section is always intended for use as a guideline and a tiebreaker, not as a hard-and-fast rule, but that bears repeating ahead of Thursday's slate.
TARGET
GSW at HOU: Over the past 10 games, both of these teams are in the top 10 in pace, and the Rockets' defense ranks as the fifth-worst in points allowed per possession. This should be a fast, high-scoring game.
AVOID
OKC at LAC: With only four teams in action, the Thunder alone make this matchup the one to avoid. The Thunder are the slowest team in the league over their last 10 games, and their per-possession defense is in the top half of the league.
GUARDS
Stephen Curry, GSW at HOU ($8,400): The smaller the slate, the more important it is to find the player likely to score the most DKFP, regardless of their salary. Only Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant average more DKFP than Curry. Durant will be listed below as another recommended player, and Westbrook is facing a far more challenging matchup than Curry. In Curry's 25 regular season matchups against Chris Paul, Curry's averages are almost identical to his career averages, and the Rockets are one of the most fantasy-friendly opponents in the league (as mentioned above). Westbrook is a reasonable play, but in order for this to be a useful column, I have to pick only one – so I chose Curry.
Lou Williams, LAC vs. OKC ($7,200): With Andre Roberson (knee) out, the Thunder's defensive backcourt becomes significantly worse defensively. Williams is averaging 30.8 points and 34.2 minutes per game over his last six games. Williams is in line for a lot of work in a deceptively good matchup.
Milos Teodosic, LAC vs. OKC ($7,200): There are very few cheap guards available, and Roberson's absence should boost Teodosic's prospects, in addition to Williams and Austin Rivers (Achilles). Teodosic has at least 24 DKFP in six of his last nine games, including no games below 16 DKFP. Over his last five games, his workload has increased from 23.0 minutes per game to 29.6, and he is averaging 9.8 points and 6.4 assists in that span.
FORWARDS
Kevin Durant, GSW at HOU ($8,700): As mentioned in the Curry blurb, when the slate is small, getting the slate's top scorers takes on increased significance, regardless of cost. Blake Griffin ($8,200) has actually outscored Durant over their past five games, but in the previous five games, Durant paces Griffin by more than 10 DKFP per game. Durant's night-to-night ceiling is simply much higher than Griffins' though either could outdo the other on any given night. The Rockets are without Luc Mbah a Moute (shoulder), and a major reason they brought him in was because he helped give their defense a chance against the Warriors. It's almost impossible to effectively guard Durant regardless of personnel, but the fact that the Rockets will be without a key defender is an added factor in favor of Durant's Thursday DFS chances.
Draymond Green, GSW at HOU ($6,600): Green is likely to be one of the most popular players on the slate, and with good reason – his salary is a full $1,300 cheaper than it was Friday, when he was two points away from a triple-double and finished with 50.75 DKFP. Green's price plummeted because he played only 10 minutes Saturday, when he was ejected for two technical fouls early in the game – the low recent score dropped his salary, even though the double-technicals and the low minute counts are random flukes unlikely to be repeated. Green averages 36.2 DKFP, which would be a steal at this salary.
Ryan Anderson, HOU vs. GSW ($4,300): It's only fair I throw in a few legitimate discounts, after four of the five players above cost above the per-roster slot average allowance. Anderson averaged 10.8 points and 8.8 rebounds in 34.3 minutes over a four game span, and that pace was only snapped by a New Years' Eve game where he was limited by lower back pain. He picked up where he left off Wednesday, scoring 17 points and grabbing seven rebounds in 30 minutes. His hot streak remains strong, but his salary remains low.
CENTERS
Jordan Bell, GSW at HOU ($5,000): In the four games since Zaza Pachulia returned from his injury, Bell's workload has barely changed – he's averaging 20.3, down from 24.7. In the first three of those, Bell continued to produce at a high level, averaging 27.5 DKFP before a disappointing showing Wednesday. The matchup against the Rockets is a tough one for bigs, but Bell is versatile enough that he should fare better than traditional big men, who struggle to stay on the court against the fast-paced Rockets' spread offense.
Tarik Black, HOU vs. GSW, ($3,500): I feel a lot less confident in this pick than any other mentioned in this column, but there are very few center options to choose from. If Nene Hilario (knee) misses Thursday's game after having to leave Wednesday early, then Black is likely to see a large boost in minutes. In each of the last three games that Black played at least 16 minutes, he has at least 15 DKFP.
Follow Alex on Twitter @Rikleen
