This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Thursday's four-game slate features a few elite defenses, as well as some of the fastest teams in the league. The small slate means the scores required to win contests will likely be low, especially if all the strong defenses keep their game score low.
TARGET
LAL at PHI: These teams rank first and fourth in pace this season, so this looks likely to be a fast-paced, high scoring affair.
AVOID
HOU at UTA: Over the last 10 games, these two teams rank first and second in per-possession defense – and the Jazz have only had All-Defensive First Teamer Rudy Gobert for two of those games. Offenses are likely going to have a tough time scoring in this battle of defensive heavyweights.
GUARDS
Donovan Mitchell, UTA vs. HOU ($7,200): The top-tier guards have salaries so high that they've had a hard time profiting. Mitchell is in a tough matchup, but his recent production justifies the risk. Over his last four games, he's averaging 29.3 points, 4.8 threes, 4.0 assists, and 1.5 steals in 33.8 minutes per game. He's scored at least 36 DKFP in four of his past six games.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL at PHI ($5,600): Caldwell-Pope is a minutes hog playing in Thursday's game to target. He leads the Lakers averaging 34.3 minutes this season, and that increased to 35.9 over the past nine games. His floor is high, as he's scored below 26 DKFP only once in the past 10 games, and he has at least 30 DKFP in six of those.
Tomas Satoransky, WAS at PHO ($4,100): While it's unclear how much longer John Wall (knee) will sit out, it should be at least one more game without him. Satoransky is coming off the bench, but he's been the Wizards most valuable fantasy point guard in Wall's absence. He's even seeing the same, or more, minutes than current starter Tim Frazier in each of the last five games. The Suns are the worst per possession defense in the league this season.
FORWARDS
Brandon Ingram, LAL at PHI ($6,400): I want a large share of this game on my lineup, and Ingram trails only Caldwell-Pope in minutes for the Lakers – he averages 33.7. When these teams met in November, Ingram went off for 26 points, 11 rebounds and 48.8 DKFP. Ingram has at least 30 DKFP in six of his last nine games.
DeMarre Carroll, BKN vs. OKC ($5,400): Carroll has been a prototypical "high floor, higher ceiling" guy for the last few weeks. Over his last 10 games, he's scored at least 26 DKFP in eight, and at least 17 in the remaining two. As for his ceiling, in three of those games, he scored 33.25, 37.25, and 40.5 DKFP. His floor is slightly profitable, and his ceiling is a lot better than that. He's setting his career highs in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and threes this season.
Andre Roberson, OKC at BKN ($3,600): There are two problems with using Roberson Thursday. First, almost all of the really expensive players are so high managers might not feel a need to get a super-cheap discount guy. Second, Roberson isn't that predictable in any specific category, so his production has more of a random feel to it. That said, he's getting results. He has at least 15 DKFP in the past four games, and six of his past seven. He gets a little bit of production from every category, which can increase volatility, but can also make him a good play regardless of opponent.
CENTERS
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. LAL ($10,100): I don't love Embiid Thursday, but at some point in this article I have to pick someone whose salary is above $8,000. Of the six healthy players above that mark, Embiid is my favorite. Embiid decimated the Lakers the last time they played, scoring 46 points on top of 15 rebounds, seven assists, and seven blocks on his way to a whopping 90.8 DKFP. It's pretty unlikely he'll repeat that kind of game, but it was a demonstration of how well he matches up against the Lakers. The only Laker large enough to potentially challenge him is Brook Lopez, who is a notoriously poor rebounder for a center and is averaging only 20.1 minutes per game over the past seven games.
Tyson Chandler, PHO vs. WAS ($4,500): Suns coach Jay Triano has been rotating nights off for his big men. One impact this has had is that the last few times Chandler was active, he had less competition for minutes. In his last two games under this novel rotation, Chandler averaged 32.5 minutes, 10.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 40.0 DKFP. Chandler should switch back into active duty Thursday, setting him up for another big game.
