This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
There are only two games on Thursday's slate, but they should make for some excellent television. The marquee event features the top teams from each conference, the Celtics and the Warriors, who come in riding win streaks of 13 and seven games, respectively. The second game features the high-flying Rockets against the Suns. The Suns may be bad, but they haven't lost by more than 20 points since they changed coaches (gotta walk before you can run), and they run at the second-fastest pace in the league, so at least spectators should be in for an offensive explosion.
TARGET
GS at BOS: In DFS, I try to target close games and avoid blowouts. The three best teams in the NBA are in action Thursday, and one of them – the Rockets – faces one of the very worst teams. Close games are frequently more predictable, as coaches typically stay closer to their usual rotations.
AVOID
HOU at PHO: There are things to like about this matchup, but, again, I prefer to avoid blowouts. Rotations get muddled, some starters see fewer minutes, and deep bench players with minimal fantasy potential are more likely to see minutes. The Rockets have the league's third most-productive offense, and the Suns have the fourth-worst defense. This game is unlikely to be close.
GUARDS
Devin Booker, PHO vs. HOU ($7,500): If anyone's fantasy value benefits from the almost certain immanent destruction the Suns are about to experience, it's Booker. The Suns' top scorer, Booker has the greenest of green lights, and they'll rely on his scoring as they try to keep the game competitive. Booker has at least 22 field goal attempts, 30 points, and 45 DKFPs in three of his last four games. Additionally, a bad outing in the fourth of those games caused his salary to drop $500 for Thursday's slate.
Trevor Ariza, HOU at PHO ($5,200): I hesitated slightly here, as Ariza trails only James Harden in minutes for the Rockets, and he has some capable backups in Luc Mbah a Moute ($3,400) and P.J. Tucker ($3,700). So if starter's minutes are cut due to a blowout, Ariza could really suffer. But with only two games, the fantasy scores needed to win contests are likely to be very low, and this salary is a giant bargain for Ariza. He's topped 24 DKFPs in every game in November, and he'll probably need less than that to provide profit on Thursday's slate.
Andre Iguodala, GS at BOS ($3,500): This Celtics team is, in some ways, a difficult matchup for the Warriors – or, at least, a matchup that calls for the services of Iguodala. The Celtics' rotation is basically Kyrie Irving, Terry Rozier, and a bunch of people who are effectively forwards. The Celtics are one of the best passing teams in the league, keeping defenses constantly moving, and the abundance of forwards and basically-forwards makes it hard for the Warriors to have more than one of Stephen Curry, Shaun Livingston, and Nick Young on the floor at the same time. When the Warriors need to maximize their defensive switches, especially to bounce between "guard" Marcus Smart and "center" Al Horford, they call upon Iguodala. Iguodala is averaging 16.5 DKFPs in 25 minutes per game, and even without extra minutes, that may be enough to profit Thursday.
FORWARDS
Kevin Durant, GS at BOS ($9,700): The Celtics are the best defensive team in the league right now, by a considerable margin. They have players who can cause problems for Stephen Curry, or Klay Thompson, or Draymond Green. But – and the Celtics are hardly unique in this way – they have no one who can cause significant trouble for Durant. Jaylen Brown is already a very good defender, and perhaps as he continues to improve, maybe someday he'll grow four more inches and be able to lock down Durant. But even if Brown can prevent Durant penetrating, Durant can just shoot over him. The Celtics might succeed at slowing the Warriors' other weapons, but they just don't have an answer for Durant.
T.J. Warren, PHO vs. HOU ($6,500): The argument made on behalf of Devin Booker largely applies here – as long as the Suns are losing, but have not yet accepted defeat, they will need to focus on their scorers to try to keep up. Booker leads the Suns in field goal attempts and points, and Warren is the only player remotely close to him. Warren's 15.4 field goal attempts and 18.7 points per game are 50 percent more than what the Suns are getting from Mike James, who is third on the team in both categories.
P.J. Tucker, HOU at PHO ($3,700): Tucker has at least 16 DKFPs in eight of his past 10 games. He saw extra minutes in some of those, but if this game plays out like most people are expecting, Tucker will be in line for increased minutes again Thursday. The Suns have been a favorable matchup for small forwards.
CENTERS
Al Horford, BOS vs. GS (7,600): It's a rough night for centers, so I'm spending up for security. Horford doesn't have a ton of upside at this price, but he does have a very stable floor. He's hit at least 32 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. The Warriors are an easier matchup for a center than for any other position.
Ryan Anderson, HOU at PHO ($4,500): I'd much rather pay up for Horford, Clint Capela ($7,200), or Draymond Green ($7,300), but if you need to save money at center, you could do worse than Anderson. Anderson's value is mostly dependent on his scoring – in six of the last seven games that he scored at least nine points, he scored at least 20 DKFPs. In his last three games below nine points, he scored below 17 fantasy points. As mentioned above, the Suns are very fast and one of the worst defenses in the league, but they are also particularly bad against three-point shooters. Suns opponents are seventh in the league in three-point field goal percentage. They are a great matchup for three-point specialist Anderson.
