This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As far as Thursday nights go, this one's a relatively busy slate. It features five games, most of which have projected totals over 214 points. Scores required to win contests probably won't be as high as a typical Friday, but they are likely to be noticeably above a normal Thursday.
TARGET:
CLE at HOU: The game with the highest projected score, by a wide margin, demands attention. The Cavaliers defense ranks last in the league in points per possession. Also, most teams have pretty clear injury reports, minimizing the likelihood of having to scramble 10 minutes before lock.
AVOID:
PHI at SAC: The Kings are one of the slowest teams in the league, while the 76ers have one of the best defenses. That's a rough combination, especially when every other game is expected to be high-scoring.
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS vs. LAL ($7,800): Beal cooled off Tuesday after scoring at least 36 points in three straight games, notching at least 47 DKFPs per game during that streak. But "cooling off" for Beal still means 23 points and 32 fantasy points – a decent showing. Before Beal's hot streak began, he had scored at least 40 DKFPs in three of his first four games. The Lakers are the third-fastest team in the league, and they are playing the second night of a back-to-back set.
T.J. McConnell, PHI at SAC ($5,000): The best fantasy values are usually the players whose prices haven't fully adjusted to their new role yet. Just as McConnell's price was finally leveling after Markelle Fultz (shoulder) was sidelined indefinitely, Jerryd Bayless (wrist) received the same "out indefinitely" label. Bayless' absence further increases McConnell's role, and McConnell already had four straight games of at least 28 fantasy points with Fultz out. That streak was snapped by two games where he shot a combined 30 percent from the field, yet still managed respectable showings of 18.75 and 22.5 DKFPs. McConnell's floor is high, and he will have plenty of opportunity to profit Thursday.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, PHI at SAC ($3,300): Luwawu-Cabarrot hasn't done much to prove that he belongs in a lineup, but the Bayless injury opens up a ton of minutes in the 76ers rotation, and McConnell's workload was already too large to absorb the whole thing. Bayless was averaging 31.1 minutes per game, and in his first game out, Luwawu-Cabarrot's minutes increased from 13.4 to 18. If those minutes keep rising, his salary won't be far behind.
FORWARDS
LeBron James, CLE at HOU ($10,800): James has the second highest DKFP per game average. On small slates, getting a big chunk of points like that, even if the value were only so-so, is a good idea. However, the Rockets are a pretty good matchup. They play at an average speed and their defense is, overall, average. However, they miss 29.4 threes per game, seemingly opening the door for a lot of rebounds to non-traditional big men.
Brandon Ingram, LAL at WAS ($5,900): Ingram is second on the up-tempo Lakers in minutes and field goal attempts so far this season. The first stat means he's likely to see more possessions than anyone else in the NBA Thursday, creating plenty of opportunities to provide fantasy value. The second implies that Ingram could be in line for increased scoring Thursday, as the Wizards defense ranks 11th-worst in the league, and they rate as a generous opponent for SG/SFs.
Andre Roberson, OKC at DEN ($3,100): If you're trying to fit in extra elite options, you could do worse than Roberson at the bottom. Roberson doesn't score much, which hurts his upside, but his role is steady – only twice this season has he played less than 20 minutes, and he's averaging 27.7 over the last three games. That kind of workload is tough to find in this price range. Roberson has double-digit DKFPs in five games straight.
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. OKC ($8,600): Picking a center slated to face off against Steven Adams is not ideal, given his strong play so far, but Jokic is the best value of the high-price centers. DeMarcus Cousins ($11,200) and Anthony Davis ($11,000) are too expensive to trust ahead of their matchup with the Raptors, and Joel Embiid ($8,000) is once again getting limited by rest and other precautionary measures. Since the opener, Jokic has at least 46 DKFPs in all but two games.
Marcin Gortat, WAS vs. LAL ($5,600): Traditional centers have picked apart Brook Lopez this season, ever since DeAndre Jordan kicked off the year with 24 rebounds against him. The Lakers rank just outside the top third for most rebounds allowed to a center, and they are forcing very few turnovers to the position. In addition to Jordan, Andre Drummond and Marc Gasol both double-doubled against the Lakers already this season.
