This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
With only two games Thursday, the options are limited and fantasy scores are likely to be way down. Feel free to spend up for a better floor, since these contests are more "race to the low 200s" than the typical "maximize points per dollar" contests of busier nights.
TARGET:
GS at SA: Though the Spurs are the slowest paced team on the slate, their pace is close to average, and the Warriors defense has struggled so far. This game also has the higher over/under.
AVOID:
LAL at POR: With only two games on the slate, it's literally against DraftKings' rules to "avoid" one game altogether. But this game has the slower pace and lower over/under. The Blazers are also on the second night of a back-to-back.
GUARDS
Stephen Curry, GS at SA ($9,000): Of all the players on this slate, Kevin Durant ($9,700) barely edges out Curry for the highest DKFPs per game average, 47.8 to 47.4. Third place is Damian Lillard ($9,300), with 42.8 DKFPs per game. But Curry is the cheapest of those three, and by a considerable margin. His floor is remarkably high – since the opener, he has scored at least 42 DKFPs in every game. On a short slate such as this, locking in that elite baseline is a fantastic way to begin building a lineup.
Brandon Ingram, LAL at POR ($5,800): To balance out Clarkson's low minutes total (see the next recommendation), I'll probably go with minutes-hog Ingram. He's averaging 34.2 per game, and since he's part of the same backcourt as Clarkson, he's one of the likely beneficiaries if Clarkson's minutes get shortened. While Ingram has occasional stinkers, he has at least 23 DKFPs in five of his seven games, and has reached at least 33 three times. He's statistically versatile, which should enable him to keep producing regardless of which defensively minded Trail Blazers wing he is matching up against at any time.
Jordan Clarkson, LAL at POR ($4,000): Typically speaking, I recommend avoiding low-minutes players in DFS. But while Clarkson's minutes are low, his impact has been high – he's seventh in the league in usage rate among players who've played at least 100 minutes – so he's squeezing a lot of value out of those minutes. He's averaging 20.6 minutes and 21.6 DKFPs, which should be good enough for Thursday.
FORWARDS
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. GS ($8,300): This sentence feels weird to write – in terms of points allowed per possession, the Warriors are the worst defense in action Thursday. That's unlikely to remain true all season, but until the Warriors fix their defense, they ought to be targeted in DFS. As was the case with Curry, above, Aldridge offers a very high floor at a very reasonable price. For $1,000 less than his old teammate Lillard, Aldridge is averaging only 1.8 fewer DKFPs per game. Other than one bad game against the Celtics' top-ranked defense, Aldridge has at least 25 points and 37 DKFPs in every game this season.
Rudy Gay, SA vs. GS ($5,300): As just addressed in the Aldridge blurb, the Warriors are the team to target Thursday (typing that did not feel any less strange the second time). Gay's floor has been rock-hard at 20 DKFPs per game, as he has yet to fall below that total. He's putting in a fairly stable 23.2 minutes per night, and the Warriors have been particularly generous to forwards so far this season. Notably, Gay's minutes have been between 21 and 26 every night, and his fantasy total has been between 20.75 and 25.25 in every game except for his season high of 34.75. Gay's high-floor low-ceiling game is perfect for a small slate like this one.
Ed Davis, POR vs. LAL ($3,900): Most of these recommendations are high-floor, low-ceiling guys, so Davis is the pick I'm adding in for variability. His 22.0 DKFPs per game average is great for this price, but that production has been pretty inconsistent. His minutes have ranged between 14 and 22, and his fantasy scores have been as low as 13.0 and as high as 29.75. But he's seen at least 18 minutes in each of the last five games, and the Lakers are a good matchup for a big man.
CENTERS
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. LAL ($5,900): It's a tough night for centers, but Nurkic might offer the highest upside (outside of Aldridge, who I already talked about as a forward). The Lakers have been one of the fastest teams in the NBA. Brook Lopez ($5,600) is only playing 23.3 minutes per game, and when he's on the court he's getting consistently drawn outside of the paint. Other than Lopez, there is no one on the Lakers' roster who has the size or skill to slow Nurkic's offensive game. On defense, Nurkic should see a boost in rebounds, as Lopez's rebounds have fallen over the last two seasons while his three-point attempts have risen.
Pau Gasol, SA vs. GS ($5,400): I am not thrilled about recommending Gasol, but I feel guilty submitting this article to my editors with only one center listed. If Aldridge or Nurkic don't strike your fancy, I dislike Gasol less than any of the other centers available Thursday. Gasol's appeal is almost identical to that of Rudy Gay – target the Warriors, decent price, relatively high floor on a night with very few games. He has at least 19 minutes and 19 DKFPs in every game this season.
