Yahoo DFS Basketball: Wednesday-Thursday Picks

Yahoo DFS Basketball: Wednesday-Thursday Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.

The Wizards return to Boston on Wednesday with the series tied 2-2. On the one hand, the home team has won every game by double-digits, which would seem to favor the Celtics in Game 5. On the other hand, the Wizards were up double-digits early in Games 1 and 2, and probably should have won the latter, but John Wall and Bradley Beal both missed their potential game-winners as time expired, instead sending the game into overtime.

Out west, the Spurs and Rockets return to Houston after a closely competitive Game 5 ended with a narrow Spurs overtime victory to give them a 3-2 edge in the series. This matchup will be heavily influenced by the injury report. Kawhi Leonard (ankle) sat out the final possessions of regulation and all of overtime. He is expected to start, but if he is limited that radically reshapes the Spurs' rotation. The Rockets' injury situation is more straightforward, but still important. Nene Hilario (groin) is out for the rest of the playoffs, and with him out, only seven Rockets saw the court Tuesday.

GUARD

James Harden, HOU vs. SA ($60): Harden costs a ton, but he has delivered this series, scoring at least 48.7 fantasy points in four of five games. Going back to the start of the playoffs, he only has two games with fewer than 48.0 fantasy points. As the series returns to Houston for a must-win game, the MVP candidate will need another excellent performance to keep his team's season alive. His salary is too high to be the key in a winning contest lineup, but his floor is so astronomical that he sets any lineup up for a good shot at success.

Patrick Beverley, HOU vs. SA ($19): The Rockets' rotation shrunk to only seven players after Nene's injury. That shift led to a huge jump in minutes for Beverley, as well as Lou Williams and Eric Gordon. All three are decent options, but Beverley gets the nod because he has been the most effective this postseason.

Other suggestions: John Wall, WAS at BOS ($51); Patty Mills, SA at HOU ($15); Terry Rozier, BOS vs. WAS ($10)

Guard to Avoid

Avery Bradley, BOS vs. WAS ($23): Bradley (hip) is expected to play Wednesday after suffering hip pointers on opposite sides in Games 2 and 3. Though Bradley mostly played through the pain, his production in both games suffered significantly. The series took two full days off, which may have helped him recover, but he is still a risk. On a night with lots of very tempting guard options at every price point, there is no need to take a risk on Bradley.

FORWARD

Otto Porter, WAS at BOS ($25): Porter has been remarkably consistent through this series, finishing between 32.3 and 36.6 fantasy points in each of the four games thanks to at least 13 points and eight rebounds in each contest. The Wizards have run some sets where he ends up being defended by Isaiah Thomas, which has worked predictably well for the Wizards, and for which the Celtics have not found a solution.

Jonathon Simmons, SA at HOU ($11): Simmons has become a significant contributor during this series, scoring at least 10 points in at least 20 minutes in four out of five games. His value may have already peaked, after replacing Leonard in crunch time Tuesday, but his strong performance in those extra minutes may have earned the 27-year-old sophomore some increased minutes, especially in Game 6 when Leonard's ankle may still be far short of 100 percent. Even without increased usage, he's scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this series.

Other suggestions: Kelly Oubre, WAS at BOS ($11)

Forward to Avoid

Kawhi Leonard, SA at HOU ($50): You don't want the most expensive player on your roster injured and playing on the second day of the slate. If any news comes out Thursday that would result in wanting a change, there is almost nothing you can do. You can pivot to James Harden, but that requires having $10 is salary that you are prepared to waste. Or you can drop down to LaMarcus Aldridge, who costs only $29, with very few options available for spending the $21 in savings. Even if no news comes out, it's not a good idea to depend on a player who had to sit out the most important part of Tuesday's game.

CENTER

Clint Capela, HOU vs. SA ($19): Capela is the only true big remaining in the Rockets' rotation, and so he's as close to a lock for 30-plus minutes as exists in fantasy basketball. During the regular season, Capela averaged 26.2 fantasy points in 23.9 minutes per game, which is profitable despite the smaller playing time. Additionally, he has at least 25 fantasy points in every game this series.

Other suggestions: Marcin Gortat, WAS at BOS ($22)

Center to Avoid

Pau Gasol, SA at HOU ($17): There are only five centers available above the minimum salary, and all of the minimum salary players combined might see less than 15 minutes. The non-minimum guys are all pretty fairly priced, so it doesn't take much to become the player to avoid. Gasol only played 20 minutes Tuesday, and neither looked great nor produced effectively while he was on the floor. Look at coach Gregg Popovich's body language during this interaction and that wasn't the only time Popovich seemed frustrated with Gasol.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Rikleen plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: arikleen, DraftKings: arikleen.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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