This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
For just the second time during these playoffs, we are down to a two-game slate. Two Eastern conference matchups, both tied at 2-2, returning to higher seed's home court. Games start early – 6:00 p.m. EDT, so make sure to set your lineups accordingly.
After four games, all four teams have shown strong defenses – all of them boast a defensive rating between 102.0 and 106.4. That means that if you are going to avoid a team, it should be due to health and matchups and not their defensive strengths or weaknesses. To put it differently, if any team should be avoided or targeted, it is target Bulls' defense if Rajon Rondo (thumb) remains out. Rondo apparently wants to play, but Isaiah Canaan has been announced as the starter.
GUARDS
John Wall, WAS vs. ATL ($50): The scores required to cash are likely to be very low with only two games on the slate. Additionally, with only three players who cost more than $36, fantasy managers may find themselves struggling to spend their entire budget. Either one of those factors would make a high-cost player with a high floor very attractive, even if there is a limited ceiling. Wall has scored at least 42 fantasy points in each of the four games in this series, and he has dominated the eye-test of "most important player on the floor for either team."
Kent Bazemore, ATL at WAS ($11): Bazemore is averaging 24.3 fantasy points in 23.3 minutes per game during the series and he costs $11. Do I really need to add anything more? He's scored at least eight points and grabbed at least three rebounds while playing at least 21 minutes in every game, and the last time he scored fewer than 14 fantasy points was 18 games ago, on a night when he played fewer than 20 minutes.
Other suggestions: Bojan Bogdanovic, WAS vs. ATL ($10); Gerald Green, BOS vs. CHI ($10); Isaiah Canaan, CHI at BOS ($10); Marcus Smart, BOS vs. CHI ($18); Dennis Schroder, ATL at WAS ($34)
Guard to Avoid
Discount players not mentioned above. Wednesday is shaping up to be a great night for cheap guards. The four players listed above are all in line for significant minutes, and they have produced well in the recent games that they saw meaningful court time. There is no need to over-think this. All of the other discount players are much higher risk, with a very unlikely prospect for reward.
FORWARDS
Jimmy Butler, CHI at BOS ($51): The strategic advantages of Wall also apply to Butler, who very rarely scores fewer than 40 fantasy points. In the first two games in Boston, Butler put up a combined 52 points and 98.9 fantasy points. As the series returns to Boston tied, the Bulls will need more from their stars in order to reclaim the series lead.
Taurean Prince, ATL at WAS ($17): My least favorite thing about these playoffs has been watching Prince ruin my plan to steal him in the waning rounds of next season's fantasy drafts. He is showing his talent on the big playoff stage, averaging 13.3 points and 5.3 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game. He's unlikely to blow up and be the force carrying your lineup to victory, but he has a high floor for his price.
Other suggestions: Bobby Portis, CHI at BOS ($12); Paul Millsap, ATL at WAS ($36)
Forward to Avoid
Markieff Morris, WAS vs. ATL ($21): Morris has had a rough couple of games. After scoring 21 points in Game 1, he has scored 21 points combined in Games 2, 3 and 4. His minutes have been cut – during the regular season, he averaged 30.2 per game, but he's down to 24.3 over the past three. Honorable mention here goes to his teammate Otto Porter, who has only had one game in April with more than 24.5 fantasy points.
CENTERS
Al Horford, BOS vs. CHI ($27): As a Celtics fan, Game 2 was a miserable experience. Horford, our best free agent acquisition since – ever? – scored only seven points in a loss that felt a lot worse than the final 14-point margin. He looked terrible. But, from a fantasy perspective, as bad as that game was to a fan, Horford still profited. His 11 rebounds and five assists helped carry him to 30.7 fantasy points, and that was by far his worst outing during these playoffs. In his best game, he scored 18 en route to 45.6 fantasy points. He is an incredible bargain.
Robin Lopez, CHI at BOS ($17): In Games 1 and 2, Lopez averaged 33.0 minutes, attempted 10.5 shots and the Bulls won. In Games 3 and 4, Lopez averaged 21.5 minutes, attempted 7.5 shots and the Bulls lost. It seems fairly likely that coach Fred Hoiberg has noticed this discrepancy and will work to get Lopez's minutes and shot attempts back up. Lopez has scored at least 21 fantasy points in three games this series, including one of the lower-use losses, and his worst game was16.4 fantasy points in Game 4 – which, on a night with only two games, is at least break-even value.
Center to Avoid
None. There are only four centers that cost more than the $10 minimum. All four are fairly priced or a discount.
