This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
There is an unusually small eight-game slate Wednesday, but that's still enough that winning scores should be on the higher side.
Two of the hottest defenses in the league face off when the Pacers visit the Celtics. Additionally, the Pacers are one of the slowest teams, while the Celtics have dramatically improved their rebounding. All around, this is a game that may be better off avoiding. The Jazz defense has "struggled" lately, but struggling for the Jazz means they are only the eighth-best defense over the last 10 games, and they are still the slowest team in the league. The Jazz should also be avoided.
There are a number of bad defenses in action, but none have been exceptionally bad lately. The Magic, Kings, Cavaliers, Nuggets and Knicks have all struggled lately, but not so much that they present go-out-of-your-way-to-target levels of value. Don't pick a player simply because they face one of those teams, but let these opponents weigh positively in that player's favor.
GUARDS
Elfrid Payton, ORL vs. CHA ($27): The Hornets are roughly a middle-of-the-pack fantasy matchup because of their slow pace and slightly above-average defensive rating. However, they are rebounding terribly and they have allowed the fourth-most assists per game since the All-Star break. That's good news for the league's third-leading rebounding guard, and a player who has hit double-digit assists in five of his last eight games. Payton has cooled from his scalding pace from two weeks ago, but he has still profited in seven of his past eight games. His skill set is such that he always has the potential to record a triple-double (or close to it), but given the specific weaknesses of his opponent, that chance is increased Wednesday.
Denzel Valentine, CHI vs. DET ($10): Valentine has played at least 23 minutes in seven straight games, and his court time has been gradually increasing throughout that stretch, including 35 minutes Tuesday. He scored at least 13 fantasy points in all seven games, including at least 19 in four, and played at least 27 minutes in each of the last five. Since the Bulls shut down Dwyane Wade (elbow) for the season, Valentine has played at least 28 minutes in each game. With Wade out, Valentine's workload is secure, and his production has been strong. Meanwhile, the Pistons are an average fantasy matchup, and the price is as good as it gets.
Other suggestions: Buddy Hield, SAC vs. MIL ($11); Kyrie Irving, CLE at DEN ($41)
Guard to Avoid
Isaiah Thomas, BOS vs. IND ($48): Thomas is incredibly overpriced. His salary jumped during a particularly impressive stretch back in January, but it has not readjusted now that his numbers have returned to their earlier levels. He only has one game above 48 fantasy points since the All-Star break compared to eight games below 39 in that span. The Pacers are a slow-paced team, and only one team has scored more than 100 points against them in March.
FORWARDS
Frank Kaminsky, CHA at ORL ($26): Wednesday is a rough night for expensive forwards, as Otto Porter ($27) is the only player more expensive than Kaminsky. He took over the Hornets' starting center position while Cody Zeller was injured last month, but then lost the position when he suffered an injury of his own. Kaminsky returned last week, and after a slow first game, he has looked like his productive starter-self. He's coming off the bench, but that doesn't matter as long as he keeps averaging 32.3 minutes per game, as he has over his last four. The Magic have the fifth-worst per-possession defense over the past 10 games, and are a below-average rebounding team.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC vs. MIL ($18): The case for Cauley-Stein is almost identical to the one for Skal Labissiere: both forwards were thrust into large roles and increased responsibility following the DeMarcus Cousins trade. Both saw an instant boost to their fantasy value, showed flashes of ability to be major fantasy contributors, but failed to consistently deliver to those elevated expectations. Recently, both seem to have hit a stride and are now producing large fantasy profits most nights. Cauley-Stein's minutes and role is larger, and he's had several games with more than 30 fantasy points. Though he stumbled more recently than Labissiere, he's farther along in his development and has a much higher ceiling. Labissiere has put together four good games in a row, including one outstanding game, but his minutes still hover close to 20 per game most nights, which is a cause for slight concern. The Bucks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, and both players get a lot of their value from cleaning the glass.
Other suggestions: Skal Labissiere, SAC vs. MIL ($10); Paul Zipser, CHI vs. DET ($10); Whoever starts at center for the Bulls*
* Robin Lopez is almost certain to be suspended after throwing a punch in Tuesday's game, and Christiano Felicio left the same game after a hard fall and did not return. Assuming those two do not start, the Bulls have to use one of their PF-eligible players.
Forward to Avoid
Kevin Love, CLE at DEN ($38): Love is one of the best rebounders in the league, but that's a problem when facing the best rebounding team in the league. The Nuggets boast the highest rebound percentage in the league, they grab the most rebounds and their opponents grab the fewest. They are in the top 10 in every rebounding category I could think of checking, and they are in the top four for most of those. That's especially problematic since Love has netted fantasy owners a loss in four of his last five games.
CENTERS
Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs. CHA ($30): Vucevic is on a tear lately, scoring at least 45 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He missed four games with an ankle injury earlier this month, and he's been great in his five games since returning, averaging 19.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.4 steals in 30.6 minutes. His worst game since returning was when he had 27.6 fantasy points against the Warriors, one of the toughest defenses in the league. The other four games have produced major profits.
Richaun Holmes, PHI at OKC ($14): Holmes is producing at a top-20 level over the past two weeks, yet he is still priced near the minimum. Over his last five games, he is averaging 14.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 26.8 minutes. The points alone are enough to break even at this price, all the rest is pure profit.
Other suggestions: Robin Lopez*, CHI vs. DET ($10); Kosta Koufos, SAC vs. MIL ($10); Andre Drummond, DET at CHI ($30)
* Lopez is almost certain to be suspended, but if he is active, he is a great value.
Center to Avoid
Willy Hernangomez, NY at UTA ($20): Hernangomez is seeing irregular playing time again, seeing 28, 27, 17, 31, 19 and 17 minutes in the last six games, respectively. The 31 was in a game Kristaps Porzingis left early, but then the 19 was the game Porzingis sat out entirely. In addition to the inconsistent workload, the Knicks face arguably the worst matchup for a center, Rudy Gobert and the Jazz.
