This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
The Warriors are the only team in action Thursday whose defense ranks among the top seven per possession since the All-Star break. The Raptors, Hawks and Jazz have all been good during that span, but they're a noticeable step below the Warriors. That makes the Warriors the only team worth actively avoiding.
The defenses to target picture is aesthetic indeed. Three of the four worst per-possession defenses since the break are all in action Thursday -- the Grizzlies, Cavaliers and Clippers -- and all three have below-average rebound percentages in that span.
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC at TOR ($64): Westbrook's price is exorbitant. Somehow, however, he keeps being worth it. He has scored at least 69.9 fantasy points in four of the last six games, and he posted triple-doubles against two of the three toughest fantasy opponents this season, the Spurs and the Jazz, last week. Additionally, he has at least two steals in six straight games and has either achieved a triple-double or scored 45 points in five of his last six games against teams currently in playoff positions. Mike Conley is the only other guard who costs more than $30 and profits with any regularity, and his matchup is just as difficult as Westbrook's.
Austin Rivers, LAC at DEN ($11): There is an unusually high number of good-value guards who cost close to $20 Thursday, but a surprising dearth of discount options. Some of the better mid-priced guys are listed below, but I'm focusing on Rivers, who is averaging 12.1 points in 26.7 minutes per game since the break. He went through a shooting slump, during which he only shot 35.6 percent from the field. Since then, he has alternated between good games and bad ones – he shot better than 55 percent on the good nights, but below 25 percent on the bad ones. Wednesday was one of those bad games, when his poor shooting limited his playing time. It was the first time in seven games that he failed to earn back his salary. He's not a fantastic option, but there is not much available below $15.
Other suggestions: Gary Harris, DEN vs. LAC ($21); Elfrid Payton, ORL at GS ($25); Evan Fournier, ORL at GS ($20)
Guard to Avoid
Stephen Curry, GS vs. ORL ($53): Curry's price is too high. Generally speaking, the Magic are a bad defense, which helps Curry. But the bad defense does not do enough to compensate for a salary that is $5 to $10 too high. Curry has scored at least 53 fantasy points only twice since the All-Star break, once with 57.9 fantasy points and once with 54.1. Even when Curry doesn't lose a manager money, he still only does enough to keep a roster competitive. His box scores have been pretty consistent, too – since the break, he has fewer than two exceptions to each of the following: plays between 34 and 37 minutes, scores between 23 and 29 points, rebounds between four and seven boards, dishes between five and seven assists. That's remarkable consistency – and none of it has been enough for a fantasy profit.
FORWARDS
Carmelo Anthony, NY vs. BKN ($35): Injuries and rest drastically decrease the ranks of expensive forwards, and Anthony is probably the best option left standing. The matchup against the cross-town last-place Nets is ideal, as they have really struggled this season, but the close proximity of the two teams adds unusual intrigue to a game featuring a combined 95 losses. Anthony has a strong floor, only very rarely scoring below 26 fantasy points in a game. He's scored at least 22 points in his last two games and has played at least 35 minutes in every appearance since Feb. 1.
Marreese Speights, LAC at DEN ($10): With DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin both resting Thursday, Speights will be asked to fill a much larger role than usual. It will be Jordan's first missed game of the season, so there is little evidence of what will happen in his absence. But when Griffin missed just over a month earlier this season, Speights saw his minutes rise to 18.3 per game, averaging 11.9 points and grabbing 4.5 rebounds. If he can maintain that pace against the Nuggets, then he will net a hefty profit.
Other suggestions: Lance Thomas, NY vs. BKN ($10); Caris LeVert, BKN at NY ($10); Thabo Sefolosha, ATL vs. MEM ($10)
Forward to Avoid
Gordon Hayward, UTA at CLE ($35): One of this season's biggest statistical mysteries has finally concluded. For months, the Cavaliers were at the very top of the league for most fantasy points allowed to small forwards. This made absolutely no sense, because, you know, LeBron James. Fortunately, we don't have to worry about it anymore because the numbers make sense again – the Cavaliers are one of the 10 worst opponents for small forwards over the last 10 games, and one of the five worst over the last five games. Heyward only has three games above 37 fantasy points since the All-Star break, and all were below 45.
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. LAC ($50): Jokic has not done enough to justify his salary recently. That said, with the Clippers resting DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, they don't have anyone left to guard him. Jokic is way too good to be adequately defended by Marreese Speights or Brandon Bass. If Jokic is ever going to justify his salary, it would probably be against with these slower, smaller, less talented backups.
Willy Hernangomez, NY vs. BKN ($17): With Kristaps Porzingis (thigh) doubtful Thursday, Hernangomez looks to be in line for a big helping of minutes. Hernangomez seems to have finally passed Kyle O'Quinn on the depth chart, and Hernangomez played 31 minutes Tuesday in the game when Porzingis was injured. Hernangomez is a great per-minute producer – the only problem has been anticipating when he will get enough minutes. With Porzingis on the sidelines, Hernangomez should be good to go.
Other suggestions: Mason Plumlee, DEN vs. LAC ($17); Brook Lopez, BKN at NY ($25)
Center to Avoid
None. Other than DeAndre Jordan, who is not playing, the worst-looking center above $15 is Steven Adams. He has profited in four of his last six games, but none of them have been more than 10 points worth of profit, and the two off games were very damaging to rosters. His opponent, Jonas Valanciunas, is not a great defender. That's the description of a *bad* center option Thursday. I strongly recommend putting a center in your utility slot.
