This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
With 11 games on the slate, scores are likely to be high. Salaries have not yet finished adjusting to the new roles players find themselves in after the deadline, which usually increases the scores needed to win even more. This is not a great night for high-floor, low-ceiling plays, unless you are feeling pretty confident in the rest of your lineup.
The two toughest defenses in action are the Timberwolves and Spurs. Those two, along with the Mavericks, who are off Wednesday, are far ahead of the rest of the league in points per possession allowed since the All-Star break. The Timberwolves face the Clippers, while the Spurs face the Kings. On the other side of the spectrum, the Nets' and the Clippers' defenses have struggled since the All-Star break, and both should be targeted.
GUARDS
Dennis Schroder, ATL vs. BKN ($27): Schroder's production since the All-Star break has been consistently strong, and the Nets are a very favorable opponent. The risk is that Schroder's minutes may suffer as a result of his recent incidents that have led to two punishments in the past two weeks – he was removed from the starting lineup for the first issue and benched for the final 21 minutes of Monday's game for the second. However, fear of future punishments will probably cause fewer daily gamers to use Schroder with so many other options available, thereby maximizing the benefit for those who do have him if he has a good night. Despite the incidents and punishments, he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in every outing since the break, and at least 33 in half of those games.
Andre Iguodala, GS vs. BOS ($11): Since the injury to Kevin Durant (knee), including the game when he was injured after only two minutes, Iguodala is averaging 30.8 minutes per game. At this paltry salary, that's a ton of minutes. Iguodala puts all those minutes to good use, averaging 11.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.3. assist and 1.5 steals per game, and he has profited in all four games, including one with 20.4 fantasy points and another with 46.0.
Other suggestions: C.J. Miles, IND vs. DET ($10); Tim Hardaway Jr, ATL vs. BKN ($17); Kemba Walker, CHA at MIA ($41)
Guard to Avoid
Chris Paul, LAC at MIN ($46): In six games since the All-Star break, Paul has only once scored at least 40 fantasy points. The Timberwolves have been the best per-possession defense in the league since the break, and they rank in the top third for limiting assists. That's a rough matchup for a guy who has five assists or fewer in four of his past six and who needs those assists to have a chance of profiting.
FORWARDS
Paul Millsap, ATL vs. BKN ($33): Millsap is coming off consecutive 20-point, 10-rebound games, and he was one rebound away from making that three in a row. Since the calendar hit March, Millsap's minutes have increased to 37.8 per game, and he has scored at least 38 fantasy points in all four of his March matchups. Those four games were against much tougher opponents than the Nets, including two of the five best defenses in the league since the All-Star break.
Amir Johnson, BOS at GS ($10): The Warriors are a tough matchup for the Al Horford-less Celtics, as his size and athleticism could have caused problems for the athletic Warriors' bigs, and Horford is quick enough that he could stay on the floor if the Warriors went small. Without Horford, the Celtics will need Johnson's length and versatility to try to match Draymond Green and the Warriors' frontcourt. The additional likely absence of Jonas Jerebko (illness) further depletes the Celtics' big man depth, increasing Johnson's role. In the last three games, Johnson is averaging 10.7 points and 6.7 rebounds in 25.3 minutes, and he's scored at least 21 fantasy points in all three, including at least 31 in two.
Other suggestions: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN at ATL ($10); Jaylen Brown, BOS at GS ($11); Marvin Williams, CHA at MIA ($18); Paul George, IND vs. DET ($33)
Forward to Avoid
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. NY ($51): The expensive forwards include a ton of 'meh' options, but none are actively bad. The matchup here is favorable, since the Knicks are actively bad, but it is very hard for a $51 player to earn enough to help his team – he will probably need roughly 60 fantasy points, if not more, to profit. Since the All-Star break, Antetokounmpo has only once scored more than 52 fantasy points, and he only has one outing with 60 in 2017.
CENTERS
Rudy Gobert, UTA at HOU ($30): Gobert has been highly inconsistent lately, but his highs have been very high – and that will be needed to win contests Wednesday. He's scored 30 or fewer fantasy points in three of his seven games since the All-Star break, but the other four have all been at least 39. Rockets center Clint Capela is much worse defensively than most of Gobert's past seven opponents, the likes of which have included Anthony Davis, Steven Adams, Marcin Gortat, Karl-Anthony Towns and Brook Lopez.
Kosta Koufos, SAC at SA ($10): Koufos is a perfect example of a player whose price has not adjusted to his new value following the trade deadline. The DeMarcus Cousins trade opened up a ton of minutes for Kings big men, and Koufos has been one of the beneficiaries. He is averaging 9.0 points and 9.0 rebounds in 27.5 minutes per game over his past four, and that includes a dreadful zero points and five rebounds against the Nets. In the other three games, he scored between 26.5 and 29.5 fantasy points.
Other suggestions: Robin Lopez, CHI at ORL ($11); Cody Zeller, CHA at MIA ($12); DeAndre Jordan, LAC at MIN ($27)
Center to Avoid
Willy Hernangomez, NY at MIL ($19): For a few short games after the All-Star break, it looked like Hernangomez had finally seized control of a major role in the Knicks' rotation. However, an experiment that began when he missed two games with an ankle injury has continued despite Hernangomez returning to the lineup two games ago, with Kristaps Porzingas starting at center and Lance Thomas at power forward. Based on the last two results, a competitive loss to the Warriors and a decisive win over the Magic, it looks like it may continue. In those games, Hernangomez has averaged only 16 minutes. He was productive in both games, but with such limited minutes, he's a highly risky fantasy play.
