This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
A light Thursday slate would typically mean winning scores will run low, which increases the value of players with a high floor but a low ceiling. However, every team in action has had their rotations dramatically altered recently, either due to trades or injuries. Those shifts create an abundance of discounted players, which typically results in higher scores across most competitions. Winning scores will still probably be lower than on a night with at least eight games, but they will probably be more similar to a night with six games than three.
The Warriors are one of the best defenses in the league, and so they are the defense to avoid. The loss of Kevin Durant (knee) hurts them, but the players behind him are still strong defenders. The Warriors have allowed the second-fewest points per possession this season.
The Bulls, Suns and Trail Blazers are all defenses worth targeting. Of the three, the Suns are the most enticing. They traded away one of their better defenders (P.J. Tucker), and then benched Tyson Chandler in order to give more playing time to younger players, a curious move to say the least given that he ranks eighth in the NBA in rebounds per game this season. The Suns are by far the worst per-possession defense in the league since the All-Star break, despite playing three teams whose offenses are nearly league-average.
GUARDS
Kemba Walker, CHA at PHO ($37): Though most of the Suns' recent lumps have come in the frontcourt, they have been a bad defense all season. Furthermore, Walker attempts 6.2 shots per game from within five feet of the hoop – the eighth-highest total among guards this season. That means that the strength, or lack thereof, of the Suns' interior defense has a direct impact on Walker's ability to score. Walker has scored at least 30 points, leading to at least 41 fantasy points, in three of four games since the All-Star break.
Rajon Rondo, CHI vs. GS ($11): There are justifiable concerns, but there aren't many cheap guard options, and Rondo has scored at least 27 fantasy points in all three games since the break. He is averaging 13.3 points and 6.3 assists in 26.0 minutes per game over that span, but the concerns are primarily twofold: First, the Warriors are the toughest opponent on the slate, and second, while his final fantasy totals have been great each night, his numbers within each category have been erratic. He scored six points one night and 19 another, and he's assisted between five and nine times. Despite the concerns, the low cost and high minutes make him an overall attractive option.
Other suggestions: Nicolas Batum, CHA at PHO ($31); Alex Abrines, OKC at POR ($10)
Guard to Avoid
Damian Lillard, POR vs. OKC ($41): Facing off against Russell Westbrook is always intimidating, even though the numbers tell us that the Thunder have been a slightly favorable opponent for point guards this season. More importantly, Lillard's price is too high and ceiling too low. He had 34 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists Tuesday, marking the first time he scored more than 50 fantasy points since Christmas. Since then, Lillard has 12 games with fewer than 40 fantasy points, and only seven games above 42 (including Tuesday). His upside is low, and he frequently fails to reach value.
FORWARDS
Draymond Green, GS at CHI ($34): Since the Bulls traded Taj Gibson, they rank as the fourth-worst per-possession defenses in the league. Nikola Mirotic is not a bad defender, but he is a step down, and he should struggle against the stronger and more athletic Green. Then there is the emotional appeal: Green is supposed to be the 'heart and soul' of this Warriors team, and they just lost their best player. Green will likely put a heavy burden on himself to produce while Kevin Durant (knee) is sidelined. Finally, Green has scored at least 44 fantasy points in each of his last two games, including at least 14 points, 11 assists and six rebounds in each.
Maurice Harkless, POR vs. OKC ($12): Harkless is second on the Trail Blazers in minutes since the All-Star break at 37.0 per game, and he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in all three contests. Additionally, the Blazers just lost Ed Davis (shoulder) for the season, reducing the number of forwards available to take away some of those minutes. That many minutes at this low a price is a value hard to find, and unlikely to last long.
Other suggestions: Frank Kaminsky, CHA at PHO ($24); T.J. Warren, PHO vs. CHA ($19)
Forward to Avoid
Taj Gibson, OKC at POR ($16): This is a pretty strong night for forwards, so picking one to avoid was difficult – it's not hard to imagine Gibson playing 27 minutes and posting a double-double against an undermanned Trail Blazers frontcourt. The problem with Gibson, however, is that it is also easy to imagine him finishing with just six points and five rebounds in barely 21 minutes. Of the two, the second seems more plausible, especially since that is exactly what he did Sunday against the Pelicans. Gibson's role on his new team is still not finalized, and it will be hard to trust him until it is.
CENTERS
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. OKC ($14): Since joining the Trail Blazers, Nurkic has averaged 13.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 27.8 minutes per game. His fantasy points totals as a Blazer have been 26.9, 40.9, 16.8 and 32.9, respectively. Three nights out of four, he was one of the best values available. In the fourth game, he did enough to keep a roster competitive. Lot's of potential, with minimal risk.
Other suggestions: Zaza Pachulia, GS at CHI ($10)
Center to Avoid
Tyson Chandler, PHO vs CHA ($19): After three straight DNP-CDs, there is no reason to believe Chandler will take action Thursday. Besides Chandler, none of the centers look like bad options. All are fairly priced, the most expensive is Steven Adams at $21, and only six cost more than the minimum value.
