This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Thursday afternoon is the NBA trade deadline, and it is shaping up as one of the most active in recent memory. The most important advice for daily gamers is to stay on top of both the trade news and the inactives since many players changing teams may not participate in Thursday's games.
In the 10 games before the All-Star break, the Rockets had the most efficient defense of the teams playing Thursday. They play the new-looks Pelicans, who play their first game since the massive DeMarcus Cousins trade. The Pelicans' upheaval will certainly create value for some, but it will probably also cause some mishaps and blunders as the team adapts to a new rotation against a strong defensive unit.
The Nuggets, Clippers and Knicks defenses were the most porous of Thursday's teams before the break. The Nuggets play the Kings, and the Cousins' trade has more impact on Kings' values than their opponent. The Clippers play the Warriors and the Knicks play the Cavaliers, which boosts the Warriors' and Cavaliers' values.
GUARDS
Klay Thompson, GS vs. LAC ($28): Thompson has been one of the most reliable fantasy assets this season, outscoring this salary in 11 of his last 12 games, which is a great streak for a higher-priced player. His floor does no harm, and he always has the potential to go nuts and score at least 50 fantasy points. The Clippers' defense has been very bad recently. If Chris Paul (thumb) returns, the Clippers' defense should improve, making Thompson slightly less appealing, but Thompson's recent success makes him worth using either way.
Tyreke Evans, SAC vs. DEN ($16): The Kings don't have enough talent to keep Evans off the floor. He will remain on a minutes restriction of about 27 minutes per game, but that is plenty of time for him to profit at this low price point. DeMarcus Cousins had a usage rate of 37.5 percent this season, and the rest of the Kings' depleted roster is not talented enough to carry that load. Evans has scored at least 19 fantasy points in each of the last nine games that he exceeded 20 minutes. In the 10 game, which was the first time he played 20 minutes this season, he scored 18.4.
Other suggestions: Darren Collison, SAC at DEN ($19); E'Twaun Moore, NO vs. HOU ($10)
Guard to Avoid
Jameer Nelson, DEN at SAC ($16): Nelson was on fire before the break, posting four consecutive games of more than 35 fantasy points. The combination of that, and facing off against a Kings team that just underwent a facelift (and, therefore, is unlikely to muster more than a basic defensive scheme) makes Nelson an attractive option. However, Emmanuel Mudiay (back) is expected to return from his six-game absence. Though Nelson will remain the starter, it is highly unlikely that Nelson will maintain the 34.3 minutes per game that he averaged with Mudiay out. Nelson is not a true "avoid," in fact, he's still a pretty decent option. But with Mudiay out, Nelson was in "must-start" territory, and that is not at all the case with Mudiay returning.
FORWARDS
Blake Griffin, LAC at GS ($45): This is 100 percent a win-by-default pick, as Thursday is a rough night for expensive forwards. DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are all very overpriced. Carmelo Anthony is also too expensive, though not as bad as those three, but he matches up against James. Draymond Green has been inconsistent, and the Clippers are a below-average matchup for forwards. Tobias Harris really struggled in the last few weeks before the break. That leaves just Kristaps Porzingas and Griffin as the remaining healthy forwards above $20. Of the two, Griffin has outperformed his salary more consistently, especially in the final games before the break. He hasn't scored fewer than 36 fantasy points in February, making for a healthy floor.
Channing Frye, CLE vs. NY ($12): Frye started both of the games since Kevin Love (knee) went down, with widely varying results. In the first game, Frye had 21 points and 10 rebounds on his way to 40.5 fantasy points. In the second, which was the second night of a back-to-back, he scored just four points, 15.6 fantasy points, and did not score a three for just the second time in the past month. His production should probably fall somewhere in the middle of those two games – but simply reproducing the second game is above what is needed to profit. He averaged 31.5 minutes in the two games, up from his 18.5 over the course of the season.
Other suggestions: Andre Iguodala, GS vs. LAC ($10)
Forward to Avoid
Raymond Felton, LAC at GS ($15): With Chris Paul (thumb) expected to return, Felton is likely to lose a lot of minutes. Paul's injury several weeks ago opened the door for Felton to take on an increased role for the Clippers, but as time passed, his production faded and Austin Rivers gradually took over more and more of available point guard minutes. Felton maintained some daily utility due to his low price, but with Paul back, that is likely to all but disappear.
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN at SAC ($44): Jokic is fairly priced, if not a tad pricey. But the matchup is good, and on nights with a small slate the lower scores make it easier to win with some high-priced, high-floor players. The Kings just lost their best player – who plays center – and did not receive a center in return. Jokic, therefore, is matching up against backup-caliber players. In his last five games before the break, Jokic posted a triple-double, a 40-point game and three double-doubles.
Willy Hernangomez, NY at CLE ($14): When Hernangomez has played enough minutes, he has been a strong fantasy producer. The problem has been that it has been hard to figure out which player, Hernangomez or Kyle O'Quinn, would get the bulk of the backup center minutes on any given night. Fortunately for fantasy gamers, we have some clarity on that, as Joakim Noah (hamstring) is out, and Hernangomez is getting the starting nod. In his last two starts in place of Noah before the break, he averaged 30.5 minutes and 29.4 fantasy points.
Other suggestions: Jusuf Nurkic, POR at ORL ($10); Andre Drummond, DET vs. CHA ($34)
Center to Avoid
Clint Capela, HOU at NO ($19): I'm hesitant to start DeMarcus Cousins or Anthony Davis until we've seen a few games with them together, but I think the pair will perform well together. They are both leagues above Capela in talent, and when both are on the floor Capela will have difficulty finding many rebounds. On top of that, Capela saw his minutes cut in the final two games before the All-Star break, averaging only 17.0 per outing, down from the 29.3 he was averaging in the previous four.
