This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
No great defenses take the court Thursday, but the Jazz visit the Mavericks in a matchup of two very good ones. Not only are both defenses good, but they rate as the two slowest teams in the league this season. This is a matchup to be avoided as much as possible.
On the other side of the spectrum is the Joel Embiid-less 76ers visiting the Magic. Without Embiid, the 76ers' defense allows the most points per possession in the league. The Magic defense has never been good, but it's gotten worse as the season has worn on. Additionally, neither team is good at rebounding, with the 76ers sporting the worst rebound percentage in the league over the past 10 games, while the Magic rank 22nd.
The Cavaliers apparently hate writers with early deadlines, because while they are publicly mulling resting some or all of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, they remained noncommittal Wednesday night. Any combination of them resting opens up opportunity for most of the Cavaliers' bench players, with Jordan McRae and Channing Frye as two of the largest potential beneficiaries.
GUARDS
Damian Lillard, POR vs. BOS ($43): The last time these two met, Lillard scored 28 points and dished seven assists en route to 39.7 fantasy points. That's not fantastic, but it will certainly keep a lineup competitive. At the time, however, Lillard was coming out of a slow patch – during the seven games before the faceoff in Boston, Lillard averaged only 23.0 points on 40.6 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from behind the arc. He's averaging 26.0 points with 44.2 and 34.8 percent shooting clips, so those pre-Celtics numbers represent a significant drop-off. Since then, he's heated back up – over his last six games, those averages are back up to 25.0 points and 42.7 and 40.4 percent, respectively. Isaiah Thomas remains one of the most favorable fantasy matchups for a point guard, and the small five-game slate means fewer points will probably be required to win.
Evan Fournier, ORL vs. PHIL ($18): Fournier is the focal point of the Magic offense, leading the team in points and coming second in assists. He's the best bargain on the Magic, and this is the most fantasy friendly game Thursday. A foot injury cost him eight games, and he struggled in his first two games back, but in the past few games, he is starting to look like his old self again, scoring at least 20 points and 28 fantasy points in two of his past three.
Other suggestions: Nik Stauskas, PHI at ORL ($10)
Guard to Avoid
Yogi Ferrell, DAL vs. UTA ($18): I'm a big Yogi advocate. After just two games, I compared him to Isaiah Thomas; needless to say, I'm all aboard the hype train. But Ferrell's price has finally adjusted to a fair level, up four dollars from Tuesday, and this matchup is pretty terrible. The Mavericks faced the Blazers and Nuggets in their past two games, respectively, two averaged paced teams, and the Mavericks committed 8.5 turnovers per matchup. The Jazz average six fewer possessions than those two teams, and Jazz opponents average 12.2 turnovers per game. Extrapolating, the Mavericks project to finish 10 fewer possessions Thursday. As exciting as Ferrell's 32 points, nine threes and five assists were in his first matchup against the Blazers, that game was not who he is at this point in his career.
FORWARDS
Gordon Hayward, UTA at DAL ($33): This is pretty much the default option on a very thin night for expensive forwards. Even if LeBron James and Kevin Love are active, it's hard to have confidence that they will see their full workloads when coach Tyron Lue has openly discussed resting them. Harrison Barnes has a terrible matchup against Hayward's Jazz. With Evan Turner (hand) out, defensive specialist Maurice Harkless is likely to get extended minutes against Jae Crowder. Serge Ibaka and Ersan Ilyasova are okay options, but Hayward is much more consistent and has a much higher floor. While Hayward also has a tough matchup, he only has one game below 28 fantasy points in the last month. Last time he faced the Mavericks, he scored 26 points on his way to 42.9 fantasy points.
Frank Kaminsky, CHA vs. HOU ($13): Throughout January, Kaminsky had one of the most stable roles for a bench player in the league. Over a 16-game span, he played between 20 and 25 minutes 13 times – the three exceptions being games of 18, 19 and 27 minutes. Few players have workloads quite so predictable. It is therefore important that, in the two games since the Hornets executed a two-for-one bench bigs swap with the Bucks, Kaminsky has played 32 and 33 minutes. That's a good boost to his value, as is playing the fastest team in the league over the past 10 games. The Rockets also have a rebounding percentage of just 48.5 during that span, the-sixth lowest figure in the league.
Other suggestions: Marvin Williams, CHA vs. HOU ($15); Maurice Harkless, POR vs. BOS ($10)
Forward to Avoid
Jae Crowder, BOS at POR ($27): With the exception of a three-game stretch at the end of January, Crowder has never scored more than 36 fantasy points this season. In that three game stretch, he maxed out at 42.5. On top of that, forwards are the strength of the Trail Blazers' slightly-above-average defense, and Crowder will probably spend most of the game matched up against Harkless, a strong defender.
CENTERS
Al Horford, BOS at POR ($27): Last time these teams played, Horford had a double-double and added five assists on his way to 35.3 fantasy points, and the Blazers are the seventh-most favorable opponent over the last 10 games for a center. Horford has a high floor, reaching at least 20 fantasy points in every game in 2017.
Jahlil Okafor, PHI at ORL ($12): The reasoning here is similar to the one used for Fournier: Okafor is a central offensive cog, the best value on the 76ers, and this is a matchup worth exploiting. Since rejoining the regular rotation Jan. 30, Okafor is averaging 15.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 23.3 fantasy points per game. If you can, save three extra dollars in your budget, so that if Okafor is a late scratch – he has been involved in numerous trade discussions and the deadline is nearing – you can sub in Nerlens Noel, who costs $15 and would be the primary beneficiary of Okafor's absence.
Other suggestions: Clint Capela, HOU at CHA ($17)
Center to Avoid
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL vs. UTA ($17): There may be some extra enthusiasm for Nowitzki after his impressive 25-point performance against the Trail Blazers on Tuesday, including a clutch last-minute three that nearly won the game. But that enthusiasm is misplaced. Nowitzki had four straight games of single-digit scoring before Tuesday. Thursday, he faces off against arguably the best defensive center in the league. The Jazz run at the slowest pace in the league, they are third in points allowed per possession, and fourth in rebounding percentage.
