This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
With only four games on Thursday's slate, scores are likely to be lower than usual. On most nights, a player needs to score more fantasy points than their salary (typically more than 1.2 points per dollar) to really help a team win. But with scores so much lower, a manager can win with a high cost player who doesn't match his salary, as long as the discount players perform well.
The Suns visiting the Nuggets is a matchup to target, as both teams are very poor defensively. Another team to target is the Lakers, who rate as the worst defense playing Thursday. In a shocking turnaround from their early season performances, of all the teams playing Thursday, the Mavericks are actually the second-best defense over their past 10 games. The Jazz rank first, and should therefore be avoided along with Dallas.
GUARDS
Russell Westbrook, OKC vs. DAL ($62): Westbrook's price is exorbitant. Averaging 57.4 fantasy points per game at this price means that he is more likely to hurt a lineup than help it. But the small slate shifts the goal posts, making Westbrook's absurdly high floor desirable. He has just one game below 45 fantasy points in January, and only six on the season (in 45 games). As long as you have two or three near-minimum guys you feel strongly about, and those values are certainly out there, a below average night from Westbrook can still set a team up for a win. As noted above, the Mavericks defense has improved, but their rebounding has actually gotten worse.
Jameer Nelson, DEN vs. PHO ($11): The ideal minimum priced player sees high and steady minutes, consistent production and a favorable matchup. Nelson has two and a half of those. He is averaging 26.6 minutes per game over his last eight, and without falling below 20. The Suns are a pretty bad defense, and Vegas projects this game to be the highest scoring of the four by almost 20 points. The only problem is the consistency. Though he's scored at least 19 fantasy points in six of those eight, the other two went for 8.2 and 10.4. At this low cost, those low nights won't kill a lineup, and the potential payoff is high.
Other suggestions: Joe Ingles, UTA vs. LAL ($11); Eric Bledsoe, PHO at DEN ($37)
Guard to Avoid
Zach LaVine, MIN vs IND ($25): LaVine had been a daily stud for most of this season, but he started cooling off in late December. That only got worse when he injured his hip earlier this month, and he has not been the same since, averaging only 9.7 points, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 threes per game – before the injury he was getting 20.8 points, 3.1 assists, and 2.9 threes. The Pacers hold opponents to one of the lowest three-point field-goal averages in the league, adding to the unlikelihood of LaVine rediscovering the deep ball Thursday.
FORWARDS
Andrew Wiggins, MIN vs. IND ($31): Over his last three games, Wiggins is averaging more fantasy points per game than all of Thursday's forwards – despite the fact that two players cost more. His 40.0 fantasy points per game during that span is more than 10 points above everyone except Paul George, who costs $7 more and is averaging 35.7. While a matchup against George is intimidating in theory, in practice, forwards have fared well against the Pacers recently. And it's not just George, as the Pacers defense is allowing 4.5 more points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games.
P.J. Tucker, PHO at DEN ($10): Remember the things to look for in low price players discussed above? Tucker hits all three of them. He gets steady minutes, having played at least 26 in every game in January, and averaging 31.5 over his last 13 games. His production is pretty consistent – he has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of his last six games, and at least 23 in five. And the matchup is favorable, as the Nuggets have the second-worst defense in the league this season.
Other suggestions: Gorgui Dieng, MIN vs. IND ($19)
Forward to Avoid
Julius Randle, LAL at UTA ($30): Over their last 10 games, the Jazz allow the fewest points per possession, are the second-slowest team in the league, and rank in the top six in rebounding. Randle has only reached 30 fantasy points once in his last six games, and twice in his last eight. I recommend starting any other forward who costs between $19 and $30 and let the difference in salary go to waste, rather than having to rely on an ice-cold Randle in the worst possible matchup.
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. PHO ($34): One of the most shocking the-Suns-are-bad statistics is that they rank sixth in rebounds allowed to centers over the past 10 games – despite Tyson Chandler averaging 16.1 rebounds of his own during the same period. The Suns also allow the fourth-highest field-goal percentage to centers during that stretch. Meanwhile, Jokic has scored at least 33 fantasy points in every game since Christmas, include four games with more than 50.
Salah Mejri, DAL at OKC ($10): Starting center Dirk Nowitzki (rest) – that felt weird to type – is out Thursday. Andrew Bogut (hamstring, probable) is expected to start in his place, but he is unlikely play major minutes due to health management. Someone has to pick up the rest of the load, and it will either be Mejri or Dwight Powell. Mejri is more of a center than Powell, which is why he gets the nod here, though Powell is a more exciting option in real life and in fantasy. Hopefully the Mavericks will announce their intentions before the game, giving fantasy managers more concrete information as to which of Mejri or Powell will see a bigger role.
Other suggestions: Tyson Chandler, PHO at DEN ($17)
Center to Avoid
Anyone else who costs $10 and is not filling in for an injured player: The minimum value guys are typically a staple of my lineups. The pricing algorithm can be slow to adapt to changes in a player's value, and since the cheapest players experience the biggest value swings, there are often a few guys who could justifiably cost almost double their actually salary. However, none of the minimum priced centers meet that description Thursday. Al Jefferson is the only one who has scored at least 10 fantasy points in all four of his last four games, but his workload is very small and the Timberwolves are a tough matchup for a center.
