This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
The Warriors and 76ers are two of the top three defenses in the league right now. The threesome, which includes the Jazz, who are off Wednesday, all allow very close to 100 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games. Fourth place is more that two points worse, and league average during this period has been close to 108. The Warriors play the Hornets on Wednesday, while the 76ers face the Bucks.
The Bucks and the Lakers defenses are the worst in the league over last 10 days, and other bad defenses playing Wednesday include the Kings, Celtics and Nets, and all five are below average rebounding teams. The Celtics are at home, but they were away Tuesday, so they are still on the second night of a back-to-back that includes travel. Opponents of all five are worth targeting, especially the opponents of the Celtics.
It is also worth noting that the Knicks and Trail Blazers, who both have a well-earned reputation for being bad at defense, have improved recently. Over the past 10 games, both rank in the better half of the league.
GUARDS
Goran Dragic, MIA at BKN ($30): Do you believe in "Dion Waiters, 30-point scorer?" In the two games since Tyler Johnson (shoulder) left the lineup, Waiters has seemingly swallowed up all of Johnson's production, and added it to his own. Waiters has only scored 25 points 20 times in his 314 game career, and he has only topped 30 six times, including the two this week, so it seems unlikely that he will maintain this incredible pace. But with Johnson out of the lineup, players need to pick up the scoring load, and some of that will shift from Waiters to Dragic, who is the Heat's leading scorer this season. Waiters is still a good option, but Dragic is the main attraction against a terrible Nets defense. In addition to scoring, Dragic is a good rebounder for a guard, averaging 3.9 per game, and the Nets have one of the worst rebound percentages in the league.
Iman Shumpert, CLE vs. SAC ($10): It has been five games since Shumpert moved into the starting lineup, and the switch has had a major impact on his offensive production. He is averaging 13.8 points, 3.2 threes and 9.0 field goal attempts per game in his new role, giant increases from the 6.9 points, 1.1 threes and 5.6 field goal attempts he was averaging before. The rest of his production is barely changed. With his new level of involvement in the offense, his price is a steal.
Other suggestions: Dion Waiters, MIA at BKN ($14); Patrick Beverley, HOU at BOS ($21)
Guard to Avoid
Kyle Lowry, TOR at MEM ($44): Lowry scored 30 points Monday yet couldn't net a fantasy profit at this price. In fact, he last profited nine games ago, though he arguably broke even on three of those nights. During that stretch he failed to profit against the Celtics, Nets and Suns, three favorable opponents. This is a concern when facing off against the Mike Conley-Tony Allen Grizzlies backcourt. In addition to rarely profiting and facing a tough opponent, the Raptors are traveling from Toronto to Memphis for the second night of a back-to-back, and Lowry played 42 minutes Tuesday.
FORWARD
Carmelo Anthony, NY at DAL ($39): Whatever is going on between Anthony and the Knicks organization has not been hurting his fantasy game, as he's played at least 33 minutes in nine of the last 12 games, including six of the last seven games. The Mavericks gather the lowest portion of available rebounds in the league, and are a bottom 10 defense. Anthony remains a strong rebounder, as he is among the top 20 for non-PF/Cs, and a top 10 scorer.
Jae Crowder, BOS vs. HOU ($19): Crowder has scored at least 26 fantasy points in six straight games. The last time the Celtics returned home for the second night of a back-to-back after a loss, Crowder scored 20 points en route to 33.5 fantasy points. The Rockets are an average defense and a below average rebounding team.
Other suggestions: Dario Saric, PHI at MIL ($11); Robert Covington, PHI at MIL ($21)
Forward to Avoid
LeBron James, CLE vs. SAC ($54): The opponent is inviting, as James gets to face a bad Kings squad and their uncertain mishmash of players who are filling in for Rudy Gay (Achilles). But there is a lot to dislike Wednesday, including how rarely James exceeds 50 fantasy points, which he has reached three times in his last 11 games. To find a 60-fantasy-point showing, you have to look all the way back to mid-December. That's just not enough return for one quarter of your budget. Additionally, when the Cavaliers play lesser opponents, James tends to take more of a facilitator role, passing more and scoring less, which is bad for his fantasy value. When they played the Kings 12 days earlier, James had 15 assists but only 16 points and 40.4 fantasy points.
CENTERS
Al Horford, BOS vs. HOU ($27): Horford has scored at least 30 fantasy points in every game this month. The Rockets are one of the fastest teams in the league, in addition to a poor rebounding team. As with Crowder, the price is simply lower than the recent production. For those who like to pay attention to the Vegas betting lines, this game is expected to the highest combined score by a significant margin.
Jahlil Okafor, PHI at MIL ($12): Okafor (knee) sat Tuesday after having an excellent game Saturday with Joel Embiid (knee) out. Okafor has been a strong option all season when Embiid doesn't play, and Embiid will miss Wednesday's game. If Okafor is a late scratch again Wednesday, then simply replace him with Nerlens Noel (or Richaun Holmes), who will see a big boost in value if both Okafor and Embiid are held out. Since Okafor costs two dollars more than Noel and Holmes, the swap works cost-wise as long as it is in this direction. The Bucks' defense and rebounding are both struggling lately.
Other suggestions: Zaza Pachulia, GSW at CHA ($10)
Center to Avoid
Hassan Whiteside, MIA at BKN ($41): This situation is fairly similar to James'. Though the Nets are one of the most consistently favorable opponents this season, they are a little tougher on centers than the other positions. Brook Lopez remains a legitimate rim protector, though he is a bad rebounder. Over his past 11 games, Whiteside has only scored 40 fantasy points once, which is just not enough at this high price.
