This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
The Nuggets visit the Spurs Thursday in an epic mismatch of a "contest." The Spurs boast the best offense in the league over the past 10 games, while the Nuggets sport the worst defense. The ability gap could lead to a blowout, but the Nuggets' offense has kept them in a lot of high-scoring affairs lately. This looks like a good night to make use of the Spurs.
For most of the past two seasons, a Suns-Cavaliers matchup would be a good night for Cavs players, but not right now. The Suns' defense has finally reached league average, while the Cavaliers' offense is in the midst of a major slump. It's not a bad night for either team, but it is not worth going out of your way to use a Cavalier.
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS at NY ($30): There is no shame in struggling against the Mike Conley-Tony Allen Grizzlies backcourt, so I'm not worried about Beal's subpar performance Wednesday. He is having an excellent shooting season, averaging 41.2 percent from behind the arc – good for eighth among players attempting at least five threes per game. None of the Knicks' rotation guards are particularly good defenders, and three-point shooters are better than league average against all of them.
Seth Curry, DAL at MIA ($10): Curry has started the last three games, averaging 12.3 points in 28.7 minutes. The Mavericks have won all three, which is an endorsement for keeping him in the starting lineup, and he averaged more than 2.0 fantasy points per dollar of salary during this stretch. The Heat are an average team in most fantasy-relevant aspects, with the exception of being a very below-average rebounding team. And while Heat center Hassan Whiteside is leading the league in rebounds, the rest of the lineup must be very bad in order to drive their team numbers so low.
Other suggestions: Justin Holiday, NY vs. WAS ($10); Goran Dragic, MIA vs. DAL ($30)
Guard to Avoid
Kyrie Irving, CLE vs. PHO ($39): The Cavaliers finally return home after an ugly six-game road trip when they went 3-3. All of the losses were by at least eight points, and all of the wins were against lottery-bound teams. Though the Cavaliers are a mature team, this still has the feel of a trap game – after a trip like that, the team is likely looking forward to a home game against one of those lottery teams they recently beat. But, as mentioned above, the Suns have improved recently, and kept it close in that game. On top of all that, Irving has not done enough to justify this salary recently, as he has failed to profit in five straight, including two games with fewer than 20 fantasy points.
FORWARDS
Kawhi Leonard, SA vs. DEN ($42): Leonard has scored 30 points in four straight games and is facing off against a Nuggets squad that allows the most points per possession in the league. He's hit at least 40 fantasy points in every game during this stretch, and in nine of his last 11. Nuggets opponents are also in the top six in assists and steals, two of Leonard's many strengths.
Raymond Felton, LAC vs. MIN ($10): Before getting into the analysis, can we talk for a second about Felton qualifying as a small forward? He is 6-foot-1. Regardless of where he ends up in your fantasy lineup, he should be in there somewhere. In each of the last five games Chris Paul (thumb) missed, Felton played at least 31 minutes, scored at least nine points and totaled at least 18 fantasy points. In three of those games he totaled more than 30 fantasy points. With Paul back on the sideline, Felton becomes a great daily option.
Other suggestions: Kenneth Faried, DEN at SA ($15); Mindaugas Kuzminskas, NY vs. WAS ($10)
Forward to Avoid
J.J. Redick, LAC vs. MIN ($17): When Paul missed seven games during the holidays, Redick's production was highly erratic. He scored at least 19 points and 25 fantasy points three times. On the other hand, he scored 11 or fewer points and no more than 16 fantasy points in the other three (Redick sat one of the nights Paul missed). Focusing in on the four games he was active when Felton was operating as the primary point guard, no new pattern emerges: they include his two worst sans-Paul performances, as well as two of the good ones. When Paul returned, Redick remained inconsistent, though his good performances at least outnumbered his bad ones. Now with Paul back on the sidelines, Redick is a risk not worth taking.
CENTERS
DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. MIN ($27): Jordan is my 2016-17 fantasy security blanket. It happens every season when something about one player's production fools the pricing algorithm to remain discounted, despite the player being an obvious bargain every time they're on the floor. This year, Jordan is that guy. He profits at an absurd rate – I count 36 profitable games out of 43 appearances. And of the seven misses, most are still good enough to keep a lineup competitive. Only three times has he scored fewer than 20 fantasy points. Until his price gets over at least 30, he is worth using every time. If for some reason that's not enough – and it really should be plenty – then I'd point out that the Timberwolves allow the fourth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket, which is where Jordan takes basically all of his shots.
Tyson Chandler, PHO at CLE ($15): I've created a Tyson Chandler DFS Decision Tree, and it is very easy to use. I start by asking "is Chandler's opponent a below-average rebounding team?" If yes, I use Chandler. If no, I don't. His fantasy value is completely dependent on his rebounding, and his price is slightly cheaper than fair market value. Hence the single-question decision tree. The Cavaliers are a below-average rebounding team.
Other suggestions: Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. DAL ($43); Nikola Jokic, DEN at SA ($28)
Center to Avoid
All options that cost less than $15. This is a fantastic looking night for centers. I will use a center in my utility spot in most, if not all, of my lineups. Every player who costs at least $15 rates somewhere between a good and great option. None of the lower cost guys have a situation as promising as the high and middle-priced guys. Marreese Speights, DeWayne Dedmon and Willy Hernangomez are all interesting minimum salary plays, but all carry much more risk than any of the players mentioned above.
